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2026 Tampa Bay Derby Cheat Sheet
Racing
Horses in the 2024 Tampa Bay Derby take position early in the race. This year’s Tampa Bay Derby is set for Saturday, March 7. (Eclipse Sportswire)
Tampa Bay Downs takes center stage Saturday afternoon on the road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve with the 46th running of the ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby. The $400,000, Grade 3 stakes offers a total of 105 qualifying points toward the May 2 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, distributed to the top five finishers on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale.
Only two horses that started in the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby went on to win the Kentucky Derby – Street Sense, who won both races in 2007, and Super Saver, who finished third in the Tampa Bay Derby and then scored an upset in the Kentucky Derby in 2010. Still, the race has had an impact on the Triple Crown in recent years, with notable Tampa Bay Derby winners such as Destin (2015, second in the Belmont Stakes), Tapwrit (won the 2017 Belmont Stakes), Tacitus (third in the 2019 Kentucky Derby, second in the Belmont), and Owen Almighty (fourth in last year’s Kentucky Derby) proving their worth on a bigger stage.
This year’s Tampa Bay Derby drew an interesting field headlined by Further Ado, a colt who is rated highly by many Kentucky Derby forecasters and will be making his 3-year-old debut. The Tampa Bay Derby will be shown live on FS2 during the “America’s Day at the Races” show and also on FanDuel TV, with a scheduled post time of 5:35 p.m. ET.
Read on for information about each of the Tampa Bay Derby starters plus some handicapping insights.
Ryan Thompson/Coglianese Photo
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Owner: Calypso Racing Stables 2022
Career record: 3 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $87,000
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 88
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Pedigree: Uncle Chuck – Kombat Cat, by D’wildcat
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Pacesetter/press the pace
Analysis: This Florida-bred gelding ships in from Gulfstream Park in south Florida and will attempt to transfer fine turf form to dirt in the Tampa Bay Derby. He started on Gulfstream’s dirt track to begin his career last summer, and finished a distant fourth in a six-furlong sprint. He then was switched to turf for an August start at Gulfstream and romped by 6 ¾ lengths in a one-mile maiden race. Redland Rebels did not race again until Jan. 13, when he returned in the 1 1/16-mile Kitten’s Joy Stakes on the grass at Gulfstream and finished a game second by a neck after setting a contested pace. He’ll be a longshot in the Tampa Bay Derby but at the very least should influence the outcome of the race from a pace perspective. Look for Junior Alvarado, who rode Redland Rebels in the Kitten’s Joy, to hustle him out of the gate from the inside post position and attempt to secure the early lead.
Eclipse Sportswire
2. Talkin
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Career record: 3 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $156,250
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 88
Kentucky Derby points: 5
Pedigree: Good Magic – Rote, by Tiznow
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: Talkin was withdrawn from last week’s Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes to target the Tampa Bay Derby instead for his 3-year-old debut. He’ll be a middle-priced contender who will need to recover the form he showed in late summer and early fall of last year to have a shot at an upset. The Good Magic colt won his debut, a seven-furlong maiden race Aug. 30 at Saratoga, by a rallying neck, and then finished second by 6 ½ lengths to Napoleon Solo in the one-turn, one-mile Champagne Stakes in October at Aqueduct, an early Kentucky Derby qualifying race (Napoleon Solo finished fifth last week in the Fountain of Youth). Talkin then tried a two-turn race for the first time in his final 2025 start, and disappointed in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on Dec. 6, fading to check in ninth of 11 runners. He’s bred to easily handle two turns, so it will be interesting to see if he’s improved in the three months away from competition. A career-best effort could help him fill out the trifecta or superfecta at least, and possibly do even better against a Tampa Bay Derby field that lacks star power aside from Further Ado.
Lauren King/Coglianese Photo
Jockey: Renzo Rojas
Trainer: Luis Ramirez
Owner: Smith Ranch Stables
Career record: 3 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 1 third
Career earnings: $103,200
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 82
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Pedigree: Awesome Slew – Take Me to Zuber, by Toccet
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker/press the pace
Analysis: This Florida-bred ridgling is another Tampa Bay Derby entrant shipping north from Gulfstream Park. He posted an impressive first-out win back in October, taking a six-furlong sprint restricted to state-breds by three lengths. Roger That Dana then finished a nonthreatening third in his stakes and two-turn debut Nov. 29, ending up 10 ¼ lengths behind dominant winner Strategic Risk in the FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality Stakes held at 1 1/16 miles. In his 3-year-old debut, he raced against open company for the first time and finished second to Commandment in the one-mile, one-turn Mucho Macho Man Stakes Jan. 3 at Gulfstream. Strategic Risk went on to win the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park before disappointing in two subsequent Kentucky Derby preps, while Commandment just came back to post an impressive and fast win in the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes. Roger That Dana has faced solid competition in his young career; the problem is, he hasn’t been much of a threat in those races. The same result is very likely to play out Saturday.
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4. Hulkamania
Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
Trainer: Whit Beckman
Owners: Hoolie Racing Stable, Blue Mist Racing, and Icon Racing Stable
Career record: 1 start – 1 win – 0 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $18,560
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 76
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Pedigree: McKinzie – Paris Amour, by Frosted
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: Hulkamania is one of three Tampa Bay Derby runners coming into the race off of only one career start, along with Powershift and Canaletto. He impressed in his seven-furlong debut Feb. 8 at this track, rallying from a stalking position to power clear and win by a widening four lengths. His Equibase Speed Figure in that race was modest, but it surely can be improved upon in his second career start, although making a 20-25 point jump that’s probably required to win Saturday’s Grade 3 stakes is a stretch. Hulkamania has a pedigree that suggests he’ll improve in longer-distance races, which is a plus; on the other hand, he might go off at lower odds than he should due to the presence of jockey Jareth Loveberry, who just returned from injury and could attract fans, and even more so due to his name (the recently departed Terry Bollea, aka Hulk Hogan, was from nearby Clearwater). A good horse to consider using in trifecta and superfecta bets.
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A trifecta or superfecta filler: We're suggesting that you might want to add the horse to your bet if you’re playing an trifecta (picking the first three finishers) or a superfecta (first four finishers), and using this horse in the third and/or fourth slot but not to win.
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5. Powershift
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Repole Stable
Career record: 1 start – 0 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $6,400
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 78
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Pedigree: Constitution – Free Flying Soul, by Quiet American
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Stalker/press the pace
Analysis: Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher has the most wins in the history of the Tampa Bay Derby with six, the most recent coming with Tapit Trice in 2023. This well-bred Constitution colt gives him an outside shot at a seventh victory, although he’ll have to improve substantially off of a solid career debut on this track to do so. Powershift was the 11-10 favorite in a one mile and 40-yard maiden race Feb. 7 that also drew several other well-backed contenders, and he dueled gamely through the stretch while exchanging bumps with another first-timer, Emerging Market, before settling for second by three-quarters of a length. While Emerging Market, who is trained by Canaletto’s conditioner Chad Brown, will target the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, this precocious 3-year-old stays in Tampa for a big class jump Saturday. He’ll need to boost his debut Equibase Speed Figure by about 20 points to be within reach of an upset … but keep in mind, Todd Pletcher and Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez just teamed up with another under-the-radar contender to do the same in another Derby prep last week, taking the Rebel Stakes with Class President. A live longshot.
Eclipse Sportswire
6. Further Ado
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer: Brad Cox
Owner: Spendthrift Farm
Career record: 4 starts – 2 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $320,703
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 105
Kentucky Derby points: 10
Pedigree: Gun Runner – Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: Further Ado has been positioned among the upper echelon of Kentucky Derby prospects since last fall, when he electrified the crowd at Keeneland plus simulcast watchers with a 20-length romp in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race (his third start) and then followed that with a 1 ¾-length win in his stakes debut in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes Nov. 29 at Churchill Downs. That victory was less visually striking than his maiden score and earned a lower Equibase Speed Figure as well, but it was still impressive. Trainer Brad Cox has been patient with this well-bred son of top sire Gun Runner over the winter, and he brings him back after a series of solid workouts at Payson Park Training Center in Florida to face a Tampa Bay Derby field with some intriguing contenders but no stakes winners. He’s the deserving morning-line favorite and will be very tough to handle if he’s able to take another step forward after a three-month break. One note of caution: the two horses that followed him in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, Universe and Soldier N Diplomat, have returned at age 3 to secure only minor awards (at best) in subsequent Kentucky Derby preps.
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Morning line: In horse racing, each racetrack hires an oddsmaker to give estimates about what kind of support a horse will receive from bettors in the pari-mutuel pool, which collects wagers from everyone gambling on a particular race. These estimates are called morning-line odds and are usually announced a day or two before the race is run. The morning-line odds are a starting point when a race becomes open for betting and will change as bettors begin to make their wagers. The final odds can be very different from the morning-line odds for each horse by the time the race starts.
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7. Thunder Buck
Jockey: Samuel Marin
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Owners: Calumet Farm
Career record: 3 starts – 1 win – 0 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $38,293
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 86
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Pedigree: Gun Runner – Oxy Lady, by Oxbow
Color: Bay
Running style: Closer
Analysis: Thunder Buck will attempt a reset on the Kentucky Derby trail after showing little in his first qualifying race, the Jan. 17 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds. He backed out of contention when the field turned for home in the 1 1/16-mile Lecomte, fading to last of 10, a puzzling effort considering he’d won his prep for that race, a maiden event held at the same track and distance, by 1 ¾ lengths in late December. Now he’s shipping to Tampa for another try in a Derby prep for new trainer Brendan Walsh, and if the 86 Equibase Speed Figure he earned in the maiden win is indicative of his true talent and can be improved upon, he could be a factor Saturday. This son of 2017 Horse of the Year and premier sire Gun Runner is bred to easily handle route distances, and getting the services of Samuel Marin, the current runaway leading rider at Tampa Bay, is a plus. The race’s wild card.
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8. The Puma
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Owners: OGMA Investments, JR Ranch, and High Step Racing
Career record: 2 starts – 0 firsts – 1 second – 1 third
Career earnings: $34,280
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 90
Kentucky Derby points: 6
Pedigree: Essential Quality – Eve of War, by Declaration of War
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: Although he’s still seeking his first career victory, The Puma figures to receive betting support in the Tampa Bay Derby as he’s kept very good company through two starts and has given solid efforts. Perhaps the third time’s the charm with this Gulfstream Park-based runner, who debuted on Jan. 10 in a seven-furlong maiden race. Sent off as the post-time favorite, The Puma hung in with winner Chief Wallabee, another first-timer, for most of the stretch run before settling for second, 1 ½ lengths back and 9 ¼ lengths clear of the third-place horse. He was then sent to this track for the Feb. 7 Sam F. Davis Stakes, held at 1 1/16 miles and the local prep for the Tampa Bay Derby, where he ran a decent albeit nonthreatening third behind impressive winner Renegade. Chief Wallabee came back to run second by a neck in last week’s Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes, while Renegade will probably be one of the favorites in next month’s Arkansas Derby. Aside from Further Ado, The Puma has the best résumé among this year’s relatively inexperienced Tampa Bay Derby field. He’ll need to improve to win, but that’s not out of the question. Hall of Famer Javier Castellano, who was aboard in The Puma’s maiden race, gets back in the saddle Saturday.
Ryan Thompson/Coglianese Photo
9. Canaletto
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Trainer: Chad Brown
Owners: Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Peter Brant, and Brooke Smith
Career record: 1 start – 1 win – 0 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $40,800
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 94
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Pedigree: Into Mischief –Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor
Color: Bay
Running style: Press the pace
Analysis: He’s coming into the Tampa Bay Derby off of only one start, yet Canaletto is a candidate to have the second lowest post-time odds in the race behind Further Ado. The son of top sire Into Mischief and half-brother to 2025 Arkansas Derby winner Sandman is ambitiously elevated in class by trainer Chad Brown, but rightfully so based on his dominant eight-length debut win Jan. 25 at Gulfstream Park. In that one-mile, one-turn maiden race, Canaletto was positioned just off of the pace soon after the start, took over at will when asked by jockey Flavien Prat, and settled matters in early stretch, trouncing seven opponents. He earned 94 Equibase Speed Figure, very good for a first-timer, and is certainly eligible to improve on that number in his second start. Prat travels to Tampa for the mount, and aside from Further Ado, who will be making his first start in over three months, this year’s Tampa Bay Derby is light on proven stakes horses. He’s a leading win threat, although I’m sure his connections would have rather had drawn a better post position.
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