Saturday’s Grade 1 Johnnie Walker Natalma Stakes at Woodbine is Canada’s most prestigious event for 2-year-old fillies. The one-mile turf race is a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Grade 1 John Deere Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, so there’s a lot at stake.

In the not-too-distant past, it was common for fillies exiting a race at Woodbine to take first prize in the Natalma. But since the race achieved Grade 1 status in 2016, it’s been won six times by fillies who last raced outside of Canada, including three who traveled from Europe.

There aren’t any Europeans among the 11 fillies entered in the 2026 Natalma, but there are three runners who last raced at Saratoga in New York. We rank one of them, #7 Embouteillage, as our top choice to win.

Embouteillage wins at the Spa. (Adam Coglianese/NYRA)

Embouteillage is a beautifully bred daughter of Kingman produced by the English Channel mare Mitchell Road. Kingman was an elite turf miler in Europe, Mitchell Road won the 1 1/16-mile Grade 3 Gallorette Stakes on turf, and English Channel was a U.S. turf champion who later became North America’s leading sire of turf runners.

Given Embouteillage’s pedigree, it’s unsurprising in hindsight that she excelled in her debut sprinting 5 ½ furlongs (11/16ths of a mile) at Saratoga last month. Although overlooked in the betting as a 16-1 longshot, Embouteillage launched a strong finish from two lengths off the pace to beat eight rivals by 1 ¼ lengths.

Embouteillage was guided to victory by Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, who retains the mount for the Natalma. Velazquez has enjoyed excellent success at Woodbine this year, going 5-for-12 (42%), and he won the 2023 Natalma aboard future champion She Feels Pretty.

Embouteillage’s pedigree suggests she’ll enjoy stretching out over one mile in the Natalma, so we expect her to improve off her debut performance and deliver an even better run at Woodbine. Whether you’re betting the Natalma on a small budget ($10) or a somewhat larger one ($30), we recommend placing a win bet on Embouteillage.

Also, consider betting Embouteillage on top of an exacta using #4 Voyager, #6 Lamirada, and #10 Cattrall for second place.

Voyager led all the way to win a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Saratoga for eight-time Natalma-winning trainer Mark Casse (she is cross-entered in the bet365 Summer Stakes on Saturday’s card which is open to all 2-year-olds). Lamirada smashed her debut over Woodbine’s synthetic Tapeta track by 11 ¾ lengths, and Cattrall recently won a fast maiden special weight over the Woodbine turf leading from start to finish.

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$10 to win on #7 Embouteillage

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, 5th race, $10 to win on 7

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$18 to win on #7 Embouteillage

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, 5th race, $18 to win on 7

$4 exacta: 7 with 4,6,10 (total cost: $12)

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, 5th race, $4 exacta 7 with 4,6,10 ($12)

Good luck, and enjoy the race!