Saturday’s $500,000, Grade 2 Flower Bowl Stakes at Belmont Park is an important stop on the road to the Oct. 30-31 Breeders’ Cup World Championships at Keeneland Race Course.
The 1 ¼-mile grass race for fillies and mares awards the winner a fees-paid berth to the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.
You might assume, then, that #10 Gezora is the runner to beat in the Flower Bowl. After all, she won the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf with a sharp rally from midpack, defeating a strong field by half a length.
But Gezora has struggled in 2026. She’s 0-for-3 this year, and in her last two starts, she’s finished eighth and sixth. She’ll need a rebound to challenge for victory in the Flower Bowl, and while a turnaround isn’t out of the question, we believe #4 Kathynmarissa is the more likely winner.
A daughter of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Kathynmarissa is trained by Chad Brown, who has won the Flower Bowl eight times since 2011. Kathynmarissa has a strong chance to give Brown a ninth win.
Kathynmarissa has long been a high-class competitor. Back in 2024, she won the Pepsi Dueling Grounds Oaks Invitational Stakes and ran second in the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Oaks Invitational Stakes and Grade 1 American Oaks. In the latter race, she was beaten only by She Feels Pretty, who won an Eclipse Award as champion turf female of 2025.
Kathynmarissa didn’t race much in 2025, but she’s back to her best this year. She opened the season with a stretch-running victory over Gezora in the Grade 3 Modesty Stakes Presented by Veritas Prime, then finished a solid third in the Grade 1 New York Stakes before bouncing back to take the Grade 1 Dunkin’ Diana Stakes by half a length over multiple Grade 1 winner Segesta.
The 1 ¼-mile distance of the Flower Bowl should suit Kathynmarissa perfectly, considering she’s excelled in stakes ranging in length from 1 1/8 miles to 1 5/16 miles. She’s also versatile in terms of running style, so no matter how the Flower Bowl unfolds, she should be able to work out a suitable trip.
We recommend betting Kathynmarissa to win. Also, consider betting her on top of trifecta tickets using Gezora, #2 Sunlit Uplands, #7 Evershed, #8 Esna, and #11 Cathedral for second and/or third place. We suggest emphasizing Sunlit Uplands, who was beaten only a neck when second in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa Stakes Presented by STIHL last month.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 to win on #4 Kathynmarissa
What to say at the betting window: Belmont Park, 11th race, $10 to win on 4
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$16 to win on #4 Kathynmarissa
What to say at the betting window: Belmont Park, 11th race, $16 to win on 4
$2 trifecta: 4 with 2 with 7,8,10,11 (total cost: $8)
What to say at the betting window: Belmont Park, 11th race, $2 trifecta 4 with 2 with 7,8,10,11
$2 trifecta: 4 with 7,8,11 with 2 (total cost: $6)
What to say at the betting window: Belmont Park, 11th race, $2 trifecta 4 with 7,8,11 with 2
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
