The Basics: How to Bet the Kentucky Derby
Renegade, Further Ado, and Commandment (left to right) headline the field for the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby May 2 at Churchill Downs. (Eclipse Sportswire/Coady Media/Ryan Thompson-Coglianese Photos)
Thoroughbred racing takes center stage on May 2 as many of the best 3-year-old racehorses in training will compete in the 152nd Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve at Churchill Downs. The Derby is the most iconic race in the sport, the one event that annually reaches outside the media sphere of horse racing and grabs the attention of an international audience with a captivating mixture of tradition, spectacle, and elite equine competition.
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The Kentucky Derby is the first jewel in horse racing’s Triple Crown, which has been swept by 13 horses since 1919. It will be followed by the Preakness Stakes, held this year at Laurel Park on May 16, and the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets, scheduled to run June 6 at Saratoga Race Course.
The Derby is the longest continuously held sporting event in North America, held every year (and almost always on the first Saturday in May) since 1875. It is North American racing’s most prestigious event for several reasons. First and foremost, it’s restricted to 3-year-olds, meaning that every racehorse has only one chance to win it. The race is held at 1 ¼ miles, a demanding distance that the overwhelming majority of 3-year-olds have not attempted at this point in their racing careers. And the race has unmatched cultural significance – to win the Kentucky Derby means the horse and its connections (owner, breeder, trainer, and jockey) become a part of history.
This year’s Derby, boasting a purse of $5 million, is expected to draw a full field of 20 horses, with three overseas runners scheduled to start. It will be broadcast live on NBC and streamed on Peacock, with a post time to be announced soon.
Whether you are planning on putting some money down on the race or just want to know more about the horses, we’ve got you covered with our Kentucky Derby Cheat Sheet. The Kentucky Derby contenders are presented below in order of their position on Churchill Downs’ Road to the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard. Check back on the evening of April 25 for an updated Cheat Sheet after the Kentucky Derby post-position draw.
Ryan Thompson/Coglianese Photo
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Brad Cox
Owner: Wathnan Racing
Career record: 5 starts – 4 wins – 0 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $1,017,339
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 99
Kentucky Derby points: 150
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Sippican Harbor, by Orb
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: Commandment will vie for post-time favoritism when the starting gate opens in Derby 152. He comes into the Derby on a four-race winning streak going back to last fall when he won a maiden race in dominating fashion at Churchill Downs. Since then, he’s reeled off three wins at Gulfstream Park in Florida, the last two coming in heart-stopping fashion: a neck win over Chief Wallabee in the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes followed by a nose victory over The Puma in the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa. Commandment appeared defeated at the top of the stretch in the Florida Derby as he trailed his three main challengers, but he angled outside and grinded out the decision going 1 1/8 miles. He has a good pedigree for stretching out another eighth of a mile in the Kentucky Derby, and will attempt a similarly powerful finish once again under a new jockey in Luis Saez. This colt is one of three Kentucky Derby contenders for trainer Brad Cox as the Louisville native seeks to win his second Derby – and his first on the actual day of the race. Cox’s Mandaloun was declared the 2021 Derby winner in February 2022 following the disqualification of Medina Spirit, a decision that wasn’t made official until February 2024.
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Eclipse Sportswire
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Brad Cox
Owner: Spendthrift Farm
Career record: 6 starts – 3 wins – 1 second – 1 third
Career earnings: $1,146,328
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 107
Kentucky Derby points: 135
Pedigree: Gun Runner – Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: Further Ado joins stablemate Commandment and Renegade in the top tier of Kentucky Derby contenders. He first turned heads last fall at age 2 in a maiden race at Keeneland, which he won by a jaw-dropping 20 lengths, and followed that with a win over Churchill Downs’ main track in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes to close out 2025. Further Ado came back at age 3 in the ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby and finished second by three-quarters of a length to The Puma, and then unleashed an 11-length rout in the 1 1/8-mile Toyota Blue Grass Stakes back at Keeneland to head into the Kentucky Derby in great form. He’s bred to handle 1 ¼ miles in the Derby as a son of 2017 Horse of the Year and leading sire Gun Runner, and he’ll get the services of a Hall of Fame jockey and three-time Kentucky Derby winner in John Velazquez for the first time. Further Ado defeated an overmatched field in the Blue Grass Stakes and will face tougher competition in the Kentucky Derby but still deserves much respect. A repeat of his recent Keeneland effort will put him right in the mix of stretch-running contenders May 2.
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Coady Media
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owners: Robert Low, Lawana Low, and Repole Stable
Career record: 5 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $1,031,500
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 107
Kentucky Derby points: 125
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Spice Is Nice, by Curlin
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker/Closer
Analysis: Renegade might end up being the slight post-time favorite in the Kentucky Derby over Commandment and Further Ado based on two things: his impressive prep victory in the Arkansas Derby and his pedigree. The bay colt emerged as a Derby prospect last fall at age 2 despite officially finishing the year with no wins in three starts; however, he finished first by head in his second outing over highly regarded Paladin only to be disqualified for bumping that foe and then checked in second to Paladin in the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct in December. Renegade came back at age 3 and swept past the field to easily win the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. He then executed a similar sustained rally to romp by four lengths in the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. Like Commandment, Renegade is a son of leading sire Into Mischief, and he gets a slight edge on that rival from a pedigree perspective as his dam (mother) is a stakes winner by two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, another top sire renowned for stamina. Renegade has a powerful closing punch and will need to get a clean trip in a crowded field to set up his best effort, but getting a clean trip is crucial for every starter in this race in order to win. Leading jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has been aboard this colt since the Remsen Stakes and should have him a prime position to rally at the top of the stretch and attempt to give Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher his third Kentucky Derby win.
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Eclipse Sportswire
Jockey: Mike Smith
Trainer: Mark Glatt
Owners: Norman Stables and Saints or Sinners
Career record: 4 starts – 3 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $480,000
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 100
Kentucky Derby points: 115
Pedigree: Runhappy – So Cunning, by Blame
Color: Bay
Running style: Press the pace
Analysis: So Happy is the leading California-based contender in this year’s Kentucky Derby coming off of a game victory in the Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park, his third win in four career starts. He turned the tables on Potente, the colt he had finished third behind in the San Felipe Stakes Presented by DK Horse, by engaging that foe in midstretch of the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby and then drawing clear to an impressive 2 ¾-length win. This is a very talented racehorse who nevertheless will probably carry double-digit post-time odds in the Kentucky Derby based on the lack of quality 3-year-old contenders in California this winter and spring and also due to him being a son of champion sprinter Runhappy. So Happy does have some stamina influences on his dam’s (mother’s) side of his pedigree, and he improved significantly in his second start in a two-turn route race, taking the Santa Anita Derby following the San Felipe. Another plus in his column is his jockey Mike Smith, who has won the Kentucky Derby twice, most recently aboard 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify. Can So Happy find another gear and outrun his bloodlines in the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby? “Big Money Mike” should have the colt in a good position to find out when the field turns for home at Churchill Downs.
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Coady Media
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer: Brad Cox
Owners: St. Elias Stable and Starlight Racing
Career record: 7 starts – 3 wins – 2 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $694,115
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 99
Kentucky Derby points: 110
Pedigree: Liam’s Map – Callmethesqueeze, by Awesome Again
Color: Gray or roan
Running style: Closer
Analysis: Fulleffort profiles as an intriguing longshot in the Kentucky Derby as he has not finished worse than third in six consecutive starts and his three losses during that span have come by three-quarters of a length, a length, and a neck. He enters the Derby off of a visually impressive win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks held at Turfway Park, where he raced off of the early pace, moved up in the far turn, and rolled past the field in the stretch to prevail by 2 ½ lengths. The question with this colt is simple: can he handle racing on dirt? Fulleffort made his first four starts on turf and then his most recent three on Turfway Park’s all-weather track, which typically provides more of a cushion to racehorses than a dirt track does. There’s a good chance he can run well on dirt, as his pedigree includes relatives who have excelled on that surface. Also, horses coming off of races on Turfway’s all-weather track have done well in recent editions of the Kentucky Derby, most notably upset winner Rich Strike in 2022, 2023 runner-up Two Phil’s, and last year’s fourth-place finisher Final Gambit. If Fulleffort can indeed transfer his strong form to a dirt surface, look for him to be charging from back in the pack during the stretch under new jockey Tyler Gaffalione, with an eye on the upset.
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SV Photography
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Owners: OGMA Investments, JR Ranch, and High Step Racing
Career record: 4 starts – 1 win – 2 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $442,280
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 97
Kentucky Derby points: 106
Pedigree: Essential Quality – Eve of War, by Declaration of War
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: The Puma brings a sense of déjà vu to the Kentucky Derby as his trainer Gustavo Delgado, jockey Javier Castellano, and co-owner OGMA Investments campaigned Mage, who posted a mild upset in the 2023 Derby at odds of 15.21-1. Expect The Puma to get more betting support than his predecessor. He’s established as one of the best racehorses in his age group with a win this year in the ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs, where he defeated Further Ado by three-quarters of a length, followed by a nose defeat to Commandment in the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa. The Puma gamely battled through the stretch in both races and he’s boosted his speed figures each time through four starts. Could he be sitting on a peak effort in the Kentucky Derby? This colt’s pedigree is slightly less promising for stretching out to 1 ¼ miles than those of Commandment, Further Ado, and Renegade, and he did come up just short to Commandment when trying 1 1/8 miles for the first time in the Florida Derby. Overall, though, he’s a quality Kentucky Derby contender with a good chance to finish in the top three or four, racing for connections who know how to prepare a horse for this grand stage.
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Coady Media
Jockey: Cristian Torres
Trainer: Mark Casse
Owner: John Oxley
Career record: 6 starts – 2 wins – 4 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $1,051,922
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 103
Kentucky Derby points: 100
Pedigree: Tacitus – Magical Sign, by Gun Runner
Color: Bay
Running style: Closer
Analysis: Silent Tactic is one of the most consistent racehorses among the upper tier of 3-year-olds competing on the Triple Crown trail as he’s never finished worse than second through six starts. It will be difficult for him to extend that streak in what could be a 20-horse Kentucky Derby, but don’t count him out. After making his first two career starts on an all-weather track at Woodbine last year, he shipped to Oaklawn Park in Arkansas for 2026 and started in all four of that track’s Kentucky Derby prep races, finishing second in the Smarty Jones Stakes, winning the Southwest Stakes, and then finishing second by a nose in the Rebel Stakes and second by four lengths to Renegade in the Arkansas Derby. In each of the four races, he unleashed an off-the-pace rally entering the stretch to vie for the lead, so expect regular jockey Cristian Torres (who will make his first Kentucky Derby start) to attempt the same strategy May 2. As a deep closer, Silent Tactic is more dependent than most other Derby contenders on getting a clean trip through the backstretch and especially on the far turn in order to set up his rally. His pedigree is excellent for stretching out from the Arkansas Derby’s 1 1/8 miles to a mile and a quarter —while his sire, Tacitus, is just starting his breeding career, Tacitus’ own sire, Tapit, has already sired four winners of the 1 ½-mile Belmont Stakes.
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Lou Hodges, Jr. /Hodges Photography
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Trainer: Chad Brown
Owner: Klaravich Stables
Career record: 2 starts – 2 wins – 0 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $618,880
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 96
Kentucky Derby points: 100
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Wild Empress, by Empire Maker
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: Emerging Market is a wild-card contender in the Kentucky Derby, attempting to make history and join Leonatus (1883) as the second 3-year-old with only two prior career starts to win the race. It’s an incredibly difficult assignment, but this colt has abundant upside. He comes into the Derby unbeaten, having won his career debut at Tampa Bay Downs in February and then rallying gamely to edge pacesetter Pavlovian by a head in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. That race was held at 1 3/16 miles, making it the longest Kentucky Derby prep in Churchill Downs’ Road to the Kentucky Derby series. Emerging Market finished strong in the Louisiana Derby and has a good pedigree for handling more distance. What he lacks, of course, is experience. His speed figures jumped significantly higher from his first start to his second, and he’ll need to boost them again in the Kentucky Derby against a field that includes several contenders that are more accomplished than prior opponents Pavlovian and Golden Tempo, the Louisiana Derby third-place finisher. Flavien Prat rode Emerging Market in both of his prior starts and he’s enjoyed success in the Kentucky Derby, winning the 2019 renewal after the first-place finisher was disqualified and also finishing second once, third four times, and fourth once.
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Adam Coglianese/NYRA
Jockey: Manny Franco
Trainer: Riley Mott
Owner: Pin Oak Stud
Career record: 4 starts – 2 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $436,288
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 89
Kentucky Derby points: 100
Pedigree: Yaupon – Adream, by Bernardini
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: Albus earned his spot in the Kentucky Derby by posting an upset win in the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino at Aqueduct. He rallied in the stretch of the 1 1/8-mile Wood to win by 1 ¼ lengths over Right to Party at odds of 11.89-1, improving to 2-for-2 as a 3-year-old. The dark bay or brown colt had previously won a maiden race by 6 ¾ lengths at Tampa Bay Downs to kick off his 2026 campaign. Albus’ finishing time in the Wood Memorial was significantly slower than those of several other Kentucky Derby contenders in their 1 1/8-mile prep races, so he has his work cut out for him in order to score a second consecutive upset May 2. While his sire, Yaupon, was a sprinter, Albus has solid stamina credentials through his dam’s (mother’s) bloodline. Leading New York-based jockey Manny Franco will take the reins on Albus for the first time as Jaime Torres, aboard in the Wood, will ride trainer Riley Mott’s other starter, Incredibolt, in the Kentucky Derby. These are the first two Kentucky Derby entrants for Mott, a rising star in the sport whose father, Hall of Famer Bill Mott, won last year’s Kentucky Derby and has a contender in Chief Wallabee currently on the also-eligible list for Derby 152.
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Eclipse Sportswire
Jockey: Juan Hernandez
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Speedway Stables
Career record: 3 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $262,000
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 96
Kentucky Derby points: 100
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Sweet Sting, by Awesome Again
Color: Bay
Running style: Press the pace
Analysis: Potente is the lone Kentucky Derby starter in 2026 from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, whose six career Derby wins places him in a tie for first all-time with mid-20th-century trainer Ben Jones. He’s a longshot candidate to give Baffert a record-breaking seventh, coming off of three good efforts at Santa Anita Park, the trainer’s home track. Potente won the San Felipe Stakes Presented by DK Horse in March by a head over longshot Robusta, and then ran well in the Santa Anita Derby but settled for second behind So Happy, who outfinished him in the stretch of the 1 1/8-mile race. He’s yet another Kentucky Derby prospect whose pedigree is promising for racing an extra eighth of a mile May 2. Another positive is that Potente prefers to be forwardly placed in his races but has also shown the ability to settle slightly farther back off of the early pace as he did in the San Felipe. Many of this year’s top Kentucky Derby contenders are stalkers or closers, which means that with the right trip, Potente and regular jockey Juan Hernandez could secure an ideal pace-tracking position, secure the lead entering the stretch, and try to “get the jump” on the field. Hernandez, one of the top jockeys in southern California, will be making his Kentucky Derby debut this year.
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Coady Media
Jockey: Edwin Maldonado
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Owner: Reddam Racing
Career record: 10 starts – 2 wins – 4 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $613,450
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 96
Kentucky Derby points: 70
Pedigree: Pavel – Mandy’s Grace, by Bellamy Road
Color: Gray or roan
Running style: Pacesetter/press the pace
Analysis: Pavlovian has transformed into a much better racehorse after changing his running style in his two recent starts. The California-bred colt competed in sprint races through his first seven starts, winning once, before stretching out to a route distance in the California Chrome Cup Cal Derby in January at Santa Anita Park, where he finished third. He was a come-from-behind closer in all of those races, but switched things up in the Sunland Park Derby in February and tracked just behind pacesetter Express Kid before outfinishing that foe by a nose. He then stepped up in class in the 1 3/16-mile Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, where he set a contested early pace and fought all through the stretch with Emerging Market before yielding by a head. Given his recent success setting or pressing the pace with Edwin Maldonado in the irons, there’s little reason to expect a different strategy on May 2, and this colt should be aggressively ridden out of the gate by the Derby-debuting Maldonado and duel with foreign invader Six Speed on the lead. It’s difficult to see Pavlovian hanging around long enough to be a factor in the stretch run of the Kentucky Derby, but stranger things have happened. He brings trainer Doug O’Neill and owner-breeder J. Paul Reddam back for a bid at a third Kentucky Derby following their wins with I’ll Have Another in 2012 and Nyquist in 2016.
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Adam Coglianese/NYRA
Jockey: Christopher Elliott
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Owner: Chester Broman Sr.
Career record: 4 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 2 thirds
Career earnings: $230,200
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 87
Kentucky Derby points: 65
Pedigree: Constitution – Havin’ a Party, by Emcee
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Closer
Analysis: Right to Party earned his berth in the Kentucky Derby by passing horses in the stretch of the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino at Aqueduct and finishing second, 1 ¼ lengths behind Albus. That gave him the additional 50 points needed to safely make the Derby, where he projects to be one of the longest shots in the race with a ceiling of perhaps, just perhaps, picking off some tired opponents in the stretch once again and finishing in the upper half of the 20-horse field. Prior to his runner-up finish in the 1 1/8-mile Wood, Right to Party finished a nonthreatening third in the Gotham Stakes, also held at Aqueduct. His owner paid a $6,000 fee to supplement Right to Party to the Triple Crown on April 7 under the guidance of trainer Ken McPeek, who won the 2004 Kentucky Derby in a thriller with Mystik Dan. Young jockey Christopher Elliott was all out riding Right to Party in the Aqueduct stretch and deserves some credit for getting this grinding colt who is bred for distance to finish second. Expect Elliott, who is the son of 2004 Kentucky Derby-winning jockey Stewart Elliott, to be aggressive again as he rallies Right to Party from well off the pace.
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Eclipse Sportswire
Jockey: Jaime Torres
Trainer: Riley Mott
Owner: Pin Oak Stud
Career record: 5 starts – 3 wins – 0 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $498,681
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 95
Kentucky Derby points: 60
Pedigree: Bolt d’Oro – Sapphire Spitfire, by Awesome Again
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: Incredibolt gets the edge over stablemate Albus as trainer Riley Mott’s best contender for his first Kentucky Derby. He rebounded from a puzzling sixth-place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park, which was his 3-year-old debut, by winning the Virginia Derby Presented by New Kent County at Colonial Downs in mid-March. Incredibolt stalked the pace in the 1 1/8-mile Virginia Derby (which, unlike most 1 1/8-mile races, was held around one turn) and powered clear in the stretch to score by four lengths. This colt is a perfect 2-for-2 at Churchill Downs, both wins coming last fall when he was a 2-year-old, highlighted by a victory in the Street Sense Stakes. On the other hand, his pedigree, while solid, is less promising for stretching out in distance compared with most of the top-level Kentucky Derby contenders. Jockey Jaime Torres has been aboard Incredibolt for all of his starts and has a Preakness Stakes win in 2024 on his résumé; this will be his first Kentucky Derby appearance.
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Lou Hodges, Jr. /Hodges Photography
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
Owners: Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stable
Career record: 4 starts – 2 wins – 0 seconds – 2 thirds
Career earnings: $333,000
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 95
Kentucky Derby points: 60
Pedigree: Curlin – Carrumba, by Bernardini
Color: Bay
Running style: Closer
Analysis: Golden Tempo has established a baseline level of consistency in terms of speed figures that is a level below those of the top Kentucky Derby contenders, but he’s only made four career starts and has a pedigree that is excellent for stretching out in distance. That makes him an attractive longshot candidate to use in exotic Kentucky Derby bets such as the trifecta and superfecta; if the early pace is fast enough and he gets a good, trouble-free trip, this colt will be picking off some tired runners in the Churchill Downs stretch. He has made all four of his career starts at Fair Grounds, winning his first two, including the Lecomte Stakes, and then finishing third in both the Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes and the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby. He rallied in the stretch to finish a length behind Emerging Market and Pavlovian (separated by a head) in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby. If he can improve off of that effort in his first start away from his home track, he’s got a chance to outrun his odds with regular jockey Jose Ortiz in the saddle. This will be trainer Cherie DeVaux’s first appearance in the Kentucky Derby.
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Eclipse Sportswire
Jockey: TBA
Trainer: Chad Brown
Owner: Three Chimneys Farm
Career record: 4 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 2 thirds
Career earnings: $324,700
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 93
Kentucky Derby points: 56
Pedigree: Quality Road – Quiet Giant, by Giant’s Causeway
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker/closer
Analysis: Ottinho qualified for the Kentucky Derby with a late-running second-place finish to Further Ado in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, netting him 50 points. However, as of April 14 trainer Chad Brown has not confirmed that the colt will start in the Derby. The New York-based runner finished third by 11 ½ lengths in his first Derby prep, the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct in February, and then passed tired horses to nab second in the Blue Grass, 11 lengths behind dominant winner Further Ado. Finishing a combined 22 ½ lengths out of first in two Kentucky Derby preps does not exactly inspire confidence for a winning outcome in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby, and there’s a good chance Ottinho will be pointed to a less formidable race for his next start. He does have a very good pedigree for running longer distances — he’s a close relative to 2017 Horse of the Year and leading sire Gun Runner — and is worth keeping tabs on as a late-developing colt who could make some noise in summer races.
Bet Ottinho in the Kentucky Derby with 1/ST BET.
BENOIT photo
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Owner: Amerman Racing
Career record: 6 starts – 3 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $492,700
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 107
Kentucky Derby points: 50
Pedigree: Caravaggio – Catch the Eye, by Quailty Road
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: Stark Contrast finished second in his first start in a Kentucky Derby prep race, the Jeff Ruby Steaks March 21 at Turfway Park, and earned 50 points good for a berth in the May 2 starting gate. The California-based colt shipped to Kentucky and ran well in his debut on an all-weather track while no threat to runaway winner Fulleffort, who won by 2 ½ lengths. Although he has enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, as of April 14 the expectation according to trainer Michael McCarthy is that Stark Contrast will return to his best racing surface — turf — and target the American Turf Stakes on Churchill Downs’ May 2 Derby undercard. He projects to be one of the favorites in the American Turf if he starts in that 1 1/16-mile race as he’s won three of his four career starts on grass and finished a close second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last year.
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Joe Labozzetta/NYRA
Jockey: TBA
Trainer: Chad Brown
Owners: St. Elias Stable, William H. Lawrence, and Glassman Racing
Career record: 3 starts – 2 wins – 0 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $229,250
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 91
Kentucky Derby points: 50
Pedigree: Nyquist – Orencia, by Blame
Color: Bay
Running style: Press the pace/stalker
Analysis: Iron Honor will be a longshot in the Kentucky Derby if he indeed starts in the race, coming off of a seventh-place finish in the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino at Aqueduct. He qualified for the Derby by winning Aqueduct’s one-mile Gotham Stakes back in late February but did not factor in the 1 1/8-mile Wood, where he bumped a rival early and raced wide for most of the race after exiting the far outside post in a 12-horse field. Trainer Chad Brown is known for being very patient with his horses and as of April 14 he has not confirmed that Iron Honor would ship to Churchill Downs for the Derby. The well-bred colt has only made three career starts and has plenty of upside, so there’s a good chance that he’ll be pointed to a race with a less crowded field — such as the May 16 Preakness Stakes — instead of the Kentucky Derby.
Bet Iron Honor in the Kentucky Derby with 1/ST BET.
Masakazu Takahashi photo
Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
Trainer: Manabu Ikezoe
Owner: Danox Co.
Career record: 3 starts – 3 wins – 0 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $222,762
Top Equibase Speed Figure: n/a
Kentucky Derby points: n/a
Pedigree: Maxfield – Wild Ridge, by Tapit
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: Danon Bourbon comes into the Kentucky Derby undefeated and with a growing reputation as a “buzz horse” who could provide his home country of Japan with its first Derby winner. The colt, a Kentucky-bred from the first crop of Maxfield, began his career racing in Japan last fall and has won all three of his starts by a combined margin of 18 ½ lengths. In March, Danon Bourbon qualified for the Kentucky Derby via Churchill Downs’ Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series that offers a single spot in the starting gate by winning the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama Racecourse and held at 1 1/8 miles by a widening 3 ½ lengths. It was a visually impressive effort in which Danon Bourbon stalked the pace and finished explosively in the stretch to win going away. The quality of competition he’ll face on May 2 is much more formidable than the Japanese horses he’s defeated so far in his career, but he’s got a pedigree capable of helping him stretch out in distance and perhaps most importantly will receive the services of jockey Ryusei Sakai for the first time in the Derby. Sakai made quite the impression in his first Kentucky Derby start two years ago, riding Japan’s Forever Young to a razor-close third-place finish by a head. His experience racing a mile and a quarter in the Derby’s frenzied atmosphere will be beneficial to this colt’s chances of pulling the upset.
Bet Danon Bourbon in the Kentucky Derby with 1/ST BET.
Dubai Racing Club
Jockey: TBA
Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi
Owner: Yoshinari Yamamoto
Career record: 6 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $770,541
Top Equibase Speed Figure: n/a
Kentucky Derby points: n/a
Pedigree: Dee Majesty – Wonder Siang Praw, by Wonder Acute
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Stalker/closer
Analysis: Wonder Dean, a Japan-bred and -based colt, earned a spot in the Kentucky Derby by winning the United Arab Emirates Derby Sponsored by Jumeirah at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai. The points earned in that race helped him qualify for the Derby via Churchill Downs’ European/Mideast Road to the Kentucky Derby series, which offers two spots to contenders competing in eligible races. In the UAE Derby, held at about 1 3/16 miles, Wonder Dean mounted a sustained rally in the long homestretch at Meydan to reel in pacesetter Six Speed and prevail by 2 ½ lengths. Prior to that race, he finished fourth in a Derby qualifying race in Saudi Arabia and won one of four starts in his home country. Wonder Dean has an obscure pedigree for stretching out to 1 ¼ miles in the Kentucky Derby and overall profiles as a longshot who will need a substantial step up in form, plus a lot of racing luck, to have a chance at finishing in the top three.
Bet Wonder Dean in the Kentucky Derby with 1/ST BET.
Dubai Racing Club
Jockey: TBA
Trainer: Bhupat Seemar
Owners: Brunetti Dugan Stables, Black Type Thoroughbreds, Steve Adkisson, and Swinbank Stables
Career record: 5 starts – 3 wins – 1 second – 1 third
Career earnings: $402,183
Top Equibase Speed Figure: n/a
Kentucky Derby points: n/a
Pedigree: Not This Time – Browse, by Medaglia d’Oro
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Pacesetter/press the pace
Analysis: Six Speed joins Wonder Dean as Kentucky Derby qualifiers through Churchill Downs’ European/Mideast Road to the Kentucky Derby series of races. The Kentucky-bred son of successful sire Not This Time has made all of his starts at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai, and he earned enough points via the Euro/Mideast path by finishing second in the United Arab Emirates Derby Sponsored by Jumeirah at his home track. Six Speed set the early pace in the UAE Derby, held at about 1 3/16 miles, and opened up a clear lead in early stretch but was collared by Wonder Dean with less than a half-furlong remaining and settled for second. He had won the UAE Two Thousand Guineas Presented by Longines at Meydan in his start prior to the UAE Derby, and did so by taking the lead soon after the start and drawing clear to a convincing victory. This colt projects to be one of the main pace factors in the Kentucky Derby: he has been prominent early in all five of his starts and is a good bet to take the initiative soon after leaving the Derby starting gate because establishing the lead would give him his best chance to win. He has a very good pedigree for handling longer distances, but the fact that he tired late against Wonder Dean in the UAE Derby indicates that he’ll have trouble handling a big jump up in class May 2 at Churchill Downs.
Bet Six Speed in the Kentucky Derby with 1/ST BET.
Ryan Thompson/Coglianese Photo
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Trainer: Bill Mott
Owners: Michael Ball and Katherine Ball
Career record: 3 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 1 third
Career earnings: $216,600
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 99
Kentucky Derby points: 50
Pedigree: Constitution – A La Lucie, by Medaglia d’Oro
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: As of this writing on April 14, Chief Wallabee will need one defection from the main body of the Kentucky Derby’s 20-horse field to secure his position. That will probably happen, as qualifying runners Ottinho, Stark Contrast, and Iron Honor are not yet confirmed for the Derby and there are usually one or two defections among the field due to illness or minor injury during the two weeks prior the race. If Chief Wallabee does get into the field, he’ll arguably sit atop the second-tier of Derby contenders along with So Happy, Emerging Market, and The Puma and behind Commandment, Further Ado, and Renegade based on his on-track performance through three races and even more so on his potential to improve. He won his debut sprinting at Gulfstream Park in January and then flashed big-league talent in his second race when he lost the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes by a neck to Commandment. Then in the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa, he rallied to engage The Puma in midstretch while being joined by Commandment and battled between those foes in the final strides, only to finish third to Commandment by a half-length. Chief Wallabee seemed to lose focus during for a few moments in that stretch run, and Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott told Daily Racing Form April 13 that he was considering fitting his colt with blinkers in the Kentucky Derby to help him concentrate. This well-bred contender has tantalizing upside, and if he makes the Kentucky Derby he’ll need to take another step on that trajectory to have a shot at victory. If that happens, Sovereignty will give Mott back-to-back Derby wins and three overall as he earned his first outright victory last year with Sovereignty. Mott’s first Derby win came in 2019 when Country House was moved up to first via disqualification.
Bet Chief Wallabee in the Kentucky Derby with 1/ST BET.
Lou Hodges, Jr. /Hodges Photography
Jockey: TBA
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Owners: Leland Ackerley Racing, James Sherwood, Jode Shupe, and John Cilia
Career record: 6 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $280,475
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 98
Kentucky Derby points: 49
Pedigree: Connect – Miss My Rose, by Magician
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Pacesetter/press the pace
Analysis: Chip Honcho will need two defections from the main body of the 20-horse Kentucky Derby field in order to secure a spot, and there’s a decent chance he’ll have that opportunity. As of April 28, his connections have not confirmed that he’d run in the race if he qualifies, and if he does, he’ll be one of the longest shots in the field and also probably a pace factor. He earned his Derby qualifying points by racing in all four of Fair Grounds’ Kentucky Derby preps, winning the first one, the Gun Runner Stakes, back in December, and then finishing fourth in the Lecomte Stakes, second by a half-length after setting the pace in the Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes, and then a distant fifth in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby. The Louisiana Derby was held at 1 3/16 miles, and so far Chip Honcho’s on-track efforts indicate that competing at distances of one mile or 1 1/16 miles – not the Kentucky Derby’s 1 ¼ miles – would suit him best. Look for him to be prominent early in the Kentucky Derby if he does enter the field and start May 2; it would be a surprise to see him in contention during the stretch run.
Bet Chip Honcho in the Kentucky Derby with 1/ST BET.
BENOIT photo
Jockey: TBA
Trainer: Jeff Mullins
Owners: Dutch Girl Holdings and Irving Ventures
Career record: 6 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $342,800
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 99
Kentucky Derby points: 38
Pedigree: Maximus Mischief – Overly Indulgent, by Pleasantly Perfect
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: As of this writing on April 14, the connections of Intrepido said that they would consider running the California-based colt in the Kentucky Derby should he gain a spot in the field. He’ll need three current members of that 20-horse group to withdraw between now and April 25, when all prospective runners need to be on the grounds at Churchill Downs. If Intrepido gets into the field, he’ll be a longshot as the promising form he showed at age 2, highlighted by a win in the American Pharoah Stakes Presented by DK Horse at Santa Anita Park, has not developed in two starts this year. He debuted at age 3 with a good runner-up finish in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita but then finished fourth by 10 lengths with no apparent excuse in the Santa Anita Derby, held at 1 1/8 miles and won by So Happy. Intrepido seems to run better when forwardly placed or stalking closely off of the leaders, so in the remote chance he starts in the Derby, look for his jockey to employ such a strategy.
Bet Intrepido in the Kentucky Derby with 1/ST BET.
Eclipse Sportswire
Jockey: TBA
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Repole Stable
Career record: 6 starts – 0 wins – 3 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $168,750
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 90
Kentucky Derby points: 36
Pedigree: Curlin – Coach Rocks, by Oxbow
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Closer
Analysis: Grittiness sits fourth on the Kentucky Derby also-eligible list as of April 14 and would need four members of the existing 20-horse field to be withdrawn in order to gain a spot. His connections have not said that he would join the field if given the chance, and that’s not surprising since he’s still a maiden (a horse without a win in his/her career) and has posted three nonthreatening efforts in Kentucky Derby prep races. His last two starts resulted in runner-up efforts in the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct, defeated by 11 lengths, and then an improved second to Incredibolt in the 1 1/8-mile, one turn Virginia Derby Presented by New Kent County, in which he rallied to finish four lengths back. He’s a deep closer whose speed figures are not competitive with most of the Kentucky Derby contenders. Trainer Todd Pletcher, who has one of the favorites in Derby 152 with Renegade and has two prior wins in this race, probably will point Grittiness to an easier assignment (such as an actual race restricted to maidens) for his next start.
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