The Road to the Kentucky Derby goes through Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday with the 46th running of the Grade 3 ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby, which offers a total of 105 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve to the top five finishers on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale. Since its inaugural running in 1981, the Tampa Bay Derby has produced two Kentucky Derby winners. Street Sense became the only horse to sweep both races in 2007, while Super Saver finished third in the Tampa Bay Derby before going on to win the run for the roses in 2010. This year’s edition drew a field of nine, highlighted by the return of 20-length maiden winner and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes winner Further Ado.
Here’s a look at the field from the rail out:
Redland Rebels broke his maiden in a one-mile turf race by 6 ¾ lengths in his second career start before a narrow runner-up finish in the Kitten’s Joy Stakes going 1 1/16 miles on the turf Jan. 31. The Patrick Biancone trainee will return to the dirt for first time since his July 2025 career debut. Talkin won his career debut at Saratoga over Tampa Bay Derby rival, who finished Further Ado third. Talkin went on to finish second behind Napoleon Solo in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes and a distant ninth in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes Dec. 6. Roger That Dana finished second last time out in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park to Commandment, who went on to win the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes Feb. 28 in his next start. Hulkamania drew clear by four lengths in a seven-furlong maiden special weight race at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 8 in his lone start to date for trainer Whit Beckman. Jareth Loveberry, who has never had a mount at Tampa in his career, has been named to ride. Powershift ran a game second in his career debut Feb. 7 in a two-turn maiden special weight race on the dirt at Tampa after a thrilling stretch battle with Emerging Market. Further Ado broke his maiden in dominant fashion at Keeneland in October before a 1 ¾ length victory in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. The Gun Runner colt will be making his first start since the Nov. 29 victory for trainer Brad Cox. Thunder Buck earned his first career win in a 1 1/16-mile dirt race at Fair Grounds in his second start before a 10th-place finish in in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes. He subsequently was transferred to trainer Brendan Walsh. The second maiden in this field, The Puma, finished second in his career debut to Chief Wallabee at Gulfstream and then ran third in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Feb. 7. Canaletto, an Into Mischief colt purchased for $1 million as a yearling, rounds out the field as he makes his first start since dominating on debut by eight lengths in a one-turn mile maiden special weight at Gulfstream Jan. 25.
Analysis and Main Contenders:
While he has just one start on his resume, Canaletto showed significant talent and potential in that runaway win. he earned a 94 Equibase Speed Figure, which is the highest last out speed figure of any horse entered in the Tampa Bay Derby. Horses in dirt route graded stakes races with the highest last out Equibase Speed Figure win at 32% from 297 starts over the past year, with that win percentage jumping to 45% when looking at just the past month. Canaletto finished the final furlong in :12.32, which was nearly a second faster than any other horse in the field. Notably, he increased his average stride length in the final furlong by over half a foot compared with the penultimate furlong, suggesting this promising colt will have no issue stretching out an additional sixteenth of a mile for his stakes debut and ranks first in here by late pace with a 102.5 rating. Canaletto was produced by Distorted Music, who dominated by five lengths in her first start around two turns and is the dam (mother) of 2025 Arkansas Derby winner Sandman. In all races at Tampa Bay Downs over the past three years, trainer Chad Brown has won at a tremendous 31% clip from 185 starts with 68% in the money. Another notable positive is Flavien Prat retaining the mount. Apart from Canaletto and Prat’s proven affinity together, Brown and Prat have a 37% win rate at Tampa Bay (7-for-12) over the past three years and they are 3-for-5 in graded stakes together at this track all-time. Canaletto’s pedigree, late-pace rating, eye-catching talent on career debut, and winning connections suggest this horse has a solid opportunity to take a significant step forward and find the winner’s circle.
In his first two starts, Further Ado finished fifth then third in dirt sprints at Saratoga to start his career but really came into his own later in his 2-year-old campaign when stretching out to two turns at Keeneland in mid-October. Further Ado was ridden out to a 20-length romp going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, improving from a 70 to a career-best 105 Equibase Speed Figure under Irad Ortiz Jr. in a final time of 1:43.52. While this was an ultra-impressive run, the second-, third-, and fourth-place finishers in that race have yet to win since, but the eighth- and ninth-place finishers (Souper Caliber and Highly Connected) did come back to win their next start. Still, Further Ado had a lot to prove when stepping up to graded company. In the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill in his next start, he did just that with a three-wide bid on the final turn to edge clear to a 1 ¾-length victory, regressing a bit to a 90 speed figure. Now 2-for-2 at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, Further Ado will make his third consecutive start at this distance in his 3-year-old debut after working sharply at Payson Park throughout the winter. Over the past six months, horses in dirt route graded stakes races coming off layoffs of 90 days or more have won at a solid 21% with an 11% return on investment. Trainer Cox has found success with this move as well, over the past year he wins at 32% in stakes races with horses coming off a 61-to-180 day layoff (15-for-47) with 64% in-the-money finishes. Ortiz Jr. opts to stay aboard as he seemingly had a choice between Powershift and Further Ado. Ortiz is 2-for-2 aboard Further Ado and has been able to get the best performances out of him thus far in his short career. With his proven success at this distance, winning connections, and sharp workouts since his last start, Further Ado is a major win contender.
Despite finishing second best in a two-turn maiden special weight at Tampa in his Feb. 7 debut, Powershift showed tremendous potential and grit, battling down the lane with Emerging Market and finishing 13 ½ lengths clear of the third-place finisher. Powershift and Emerging Market crossed the finish line just 0.11 seconds apart, with the winner covering one mile and 40 yards in 1:39.11, less than a second off the track record. Powershift could very well improve upon that already impressive performance with hard-fought experience at that two-turn distance. He was the 11-10 favorite in that race for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, who wins at 28% from 75 starts over the past year with horses who were the beaten favorite last time out. Pletcher is no stranger to winning the Tampa Bay Derby as well, with six wins in this race including five since 2013, most recently winning with Tapit Trice in 2023. Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez picks up the mount from Irad Ortiz Jr., who retained the mount on Further Ado. Velazquez has not had a start at Tampa Bay Downs in the last five years, but he owns a 39% win rate all-time at the track with 40 wins from 103 career mounts. Pletcher and Velazquez have been a powerhouse in graded stakes races. Over the past three years, they win at 32% and finish 55% in the money in dirt route graded stakes races together, with a 53% return on investment. Powershift has a great chance at to finish in the top three at a solid price.
The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figures in a similar race): Redland Rebels (88), Talkin (88), Roger That Dana (82), Hulkamania (76), Thunder Buck (86), and The Puma (90).
Win Contenders in Preference Order:
Canaletto
Further Ado
Powershift
