Since the Gotham Stakes was switched from a two-turn, 1 1/16-mile race in 2017 to a one-turn mile in 2018, the New York prep race for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve has averaged 10 starters in six editions.
The Gotham is a golden opportunity to earn significant Derby qualifying points – awarded to the top five finishers on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale – in a one-turn race and potentially punch a ticket to Louisville for the May 4 run for the roses.
This year, the $300,000 Gotham Stakes drew 13 entrants and, like 2023 when Raise Cain won at 23.50-1 in a 14-horse field, it appears to be a terrific betting race. It features a combination of lightly raced promising prospects stretching out in distance and 3-year-olds cutting back from two turns to one turn. Likewise, the race drew six horses with graded stakes experience (one coming into the race off a stakes win) and six being tested against stakes competition for the first time. The diverse cast makes the 2024 Gotham a really fun puzzle for bettors to try to solve.
Pace is always the first thing I look at in a race and more than half the field appears to be pace or press-the-pace type runners, which in a one-turn race means it probably will feature fast early fractions. That could set things up nicely for a stalker or closer.
There also is rain in the forecast for Saturday at Aqueduct, so it’s important to consider which horses have run well on “off” tracks: #2 Maximus Meridus, #7 El Grande O, #8 Bergen, #10 Just a Touch, and #13 Capital Idea all have won on muddy or sloppy main tracks. El Grande O and Bergen have won stakes races on “off” tracks, and El Grande O, Bergen, and Capital Idea have won at Aqueduct on an “off” track, which is a major plus.
#11 Lightline finished third, 2 ½ lengths behind runner-up El Grande O, on a muddy track in the 1 1/8-mile Withers Stakes on Feb. 3 at Aqueduct.
On the other hand, #1 Khanate is unplaced in one start on a muddy track, #5 Deposition is unplaced in three starts on wet tracks, and #6 Air Cav was a distant third (by 12 lengths) and fifth in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes in two tries on “off” tracks. I don’t particularly like any of the three regardless of track surface, so for me I’ll toss them completely.
For Gotham entrants who have not raced on an “off” track, the Daily Racing Form Tomlinson ratings can be a useful tool as pedigree plays a role in which runners are “mudders.” Turf stakes winner #12 Slider and maiden winners #3 Deterministic and #9 Eliminate appear to be bred to handle a wet surface, especially Deterministic whose 475 Tomlinson rating is the highest in the field.
Despite the fact that he has not raced since overcoming a slow start in his career debut to win by a half-length Aug. 12, 2023, at Saratoga Race Course, Deterministic is an appealing option. Trainer Christophe Clement wins at 19% off a layoff of 180 days or longer and I think this Liam’s Map colt should benefit from this being a one-turn prep in his return. Deterministic posted a string of four straight bullet (fastest at that distance on that day) workouts at Payson Park while ramping up for his return and he should get a nice, ground-saving trip tucked in behind the pace under Joel Rosario. The speed figures indicate he should be able to compete with these horses and I think he can handle the off going if rain soaks the Aqueduct main track. The layoff is a concern, of course, but I’m hoping that plus the big field inflates Deterministic’s price.
My plan is to play Deterministic to win and alongside Just a Touch, a runaway 4 ½-length debut winner Jan. 27 on a sloppy track at Fair Grounds for trainer Brad Cox, atop a trifecta ticket. I’ll use Maximus Meridus, El Grande O, Bergen, and Capital Idea underneath.
Betting Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 to win on #3 Deterministic ($10)
What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, Race 10, $10 to win on #3
Betting Strategy on a $30 Budget
$10 to win on #3 Deterministic ($10)
What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, Race 10, $10 to win on #3
50-cent trifecta part wheel: 3,10 with 2,3,7,8,10,13 with 2,3,7,8,10,13 ($20)
What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, Race 10, 50-cent trifecta 3,10 with 2,3,7,8,10,13 with 2,3,7,8,10,13
Pick 4
6-1-3-3
6-1-3-3
$108
Pick 5
3/4/5/10-6-1-3-3
3/4/5/10-6-1-3-3
$527
Pick 6
2-3/4/5/10-6-1-3-3
2-3/4/5/10-6-1-3-3
$30
Pick 6
2-3/4/5/10-6-1-3-3
2-3/4/5/10-6-1-3-3
$1,887
Superfecta
3-10-7-2
3-10-7-2
$92
Trifecta
3-10-7
3-10-7
$47
Pick 4
6-1-3-3
6-1-3-3
$108
Pick 5
3/4/5/10-6-1-3-3
3/4/5/10-6-1-3-3
$527
Pick 6
2-3/4/5/10-6-1-3-3
2-3/4/5/10-6-1-3-3
$30
Pick 6
2-3/4/5/10-6-1-3-3
2-3/4/5/10-6-1-3-3
$1,887
Superfecta
3-10-7-2
3-10-7-2
$92
Trifecta
3-10-7
3-10-7
$47
