Deterministic

Deterministic began his career as a 2-year-old with a first-out maiden victory at Saratoga, overcoming a slow start to rally to beat an eight-horse field going seven furlongs on Aug. 12, 2023.

Following six-months between races, Deterministic made his return to the races on March 2, 2024 for his 3-year-old debut in the Grade 3 $300,000 Gotham Stakes going one mile at Aqueduct. Deterministic stalked the pace all the way on a rain-soaked sloppy track in the Gotham and passed the leaders in the stretch to draw off to a two-length victory. The Gotham was a points race on the road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby, and with his victory, Deterministic earned 50 qualifying points for the run for the roses.

Deterministic made his next start in the $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino as the odds-on favorite. He tracked the pace from fourth and faced some traffic trouble approaching the stretch and flattened out late and ran eighth, beaten by 17 3/4 lengths. He was not sent onward to compete in the Kentucky Derby.

Deterministic soon abandoned his dirt aspirations and was sent to the grass for a series of turf stakes races for 3-year-olds during the summer of 2024. He finally found success on Sept. 7 when he shipped to Colonial Downs and won the Grade 3 $500,000 New Kent County Virginia Derby by a neck going 1 1/8 miles atop a field of nine horses as the even-money favorite.

Deterministic followed with a runner-up finish to Carson’s Run in the $500,000 Jockey Club Derby Invitational Stakes Oct. 5 at the Belmont at the Big A meeting.

The next race for Deterministic was the Grade 3 $200,000 Hill Prince Stakes going 1 1/8 miles on the turf at Aqueduct on Nov. 9, and Deterministic got back into the win column with a one-length victory atop a field of seven. Deterministic was sent off as the 1.75-1 favorite and paid $5.50 to win under jockey Joel Rosario.

Deterministic became a graded stakes winner again as a 4-year-old when he scored the victory in the Grade 2, $200,000 Fort Marcy Stakes in wire-to-wire fashion atop a five-horse field going 1 1/8 miles on the turf at Belmont at the Big A on May 3, 2025. And one start later, he earned his first Grade 1 victory with a gritty, front-running win in the $1 million Resorts World Casino Manhattan Stakes June 8 at Saratoga, holding off a late rally by Integration to prevail by a head.

Deterministic ran his graded stakes winning streak to three in a row in his next start with a win in the Grade 1 $750,000 Fourstardave Stakes going one mile on the turf at Saratoga on Aug. 2. Deterministic pressed the pace throughout under jockey Kendrick Carmouche, took over the lead in the stretch, and had too much left for his nine rivals when extending to a 1 1/4-length victory in a time of 1:33.87 over firm turf.

August's Fourstardave turned out to be Deterministic’s final race of 2025 and the fast that his season ended early perhaps was enough to cost him a turf Eclipse Award according to trainer Miguel Clement, who, in mid-2026 said, "He's top class. I've always thought he was the best turf horse in the country. I thought we deserved the Eclipse Award last year, but I'm biased. Hopefully, everyone will understand why I think he's the leader of the division."

Deterministic set out to prove he's the best turf horse in the country in his 5-year-old season in 2026. He started the campaign with a win in the Grade 3 Fort Marcy Stakes going 1 1/8 miles on the turf at Belmont at the Big A on May 2.

Next, Deterministic defended his title in the $1 million Grade 1 Resorts World Casino Manhattan Stakes at Saratoga by winning the race for the second straight year on June 6. Deterministic out-classed a field of nine horses with a half-length win in course record time of 1:50.50 for the 1 3/16-miles for his fifth consecutive victory, all in graded stakes races. 

Deterministic earned yet another repeat victory in his subsequent start in the Grade 1 $750,000 Fourstardave Stakes going one mile on turf at Saratoga on Aug. 8, and in so doing reaffirmed his spot atop the North American turf division with his third win in three starts in 2026 and his sixth straight graded stakes win in a streak dating back to 2025. Sent off as the 1.61-1 favorite in a six-horse field in the Fourstardave, Deterministic assumed an up-close position behind an otherwise loose pace setter until the stretch run when he successfully challenged the leader and moved clear at the finish to win by 1 1/2 lengths under his regular rider Kendrick Carmouche.

Deterministic was bred in Kentucky by the sire Liam's Map out of the mare Giulio's Jewel by Speightstown.