Five Questions to be Answered in the 2024 Pegasus World Cup

January 24th, 2024 by Mike Curry

Gulfstream Park, 2024 Pegasus World Cup, National Treasure, First Mission, Dynamic One

First Mission is one of the newly-turned 4-year-olds that will be major players in the 2024 Pegasus World Cup. (Matt Wolley/Eclipse Sportswire)

The Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes Presented by Baccarat has become in eight years a major date on the Thoroughbred racing calendar. Positioned after the Breeders’ Cup World Championships and before the Triple Crown trail heats up, Pegasus World Cup day has been a welcome addition for racing fans and bettors alike.

The Pegasus will be broadcast live on NBC and streamed on Peacock during a show from 4:30-6 p.m. ET. The 13-race card Saturday at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Fla. drew a whopping 166 entrants, so full fields and great betting races await.

The 1 1/8-mile, $3 million Pegasus World Cup drew a full field of 12 older males with one also-eligible entrant, and with no dominant standout in the field it figures to be a fun puzzle for handicappers. Who will join Arrogate, Gun Runner, City of Light, Mucho Gusto, Knicks Go, Life Is Good, and Art Collector in the history books as Pegasus World Cup winners?

Here are five questions that must be answered in the 2024 Pegasus World Cup …

1. How talented is this group of newly turned 4-year-olds? So many of the best 3-year-olds and older males from 2023 have been retired, continuing the trend of recent years, which creates a big opportunity for several of the 3-year-olds from last year that remain in training. While all of them did face older horses a year ago in the fall, the Pegasus World Cup is a big early season test for last year’s Triple Crown crop and the Pegasus drew four of them: last year’s Preakness Stakes winner #7 National Treasure, 2023 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes winner #8 First Mission, 2023 Smarty Jones Stakes winner #10 Il Miracolo, and multiple stakes winner #11 Crupi. Judging by the morning-line odds, both 9-5 favorite National Treasure and 7-2 second choice First Mission are viewed as major players while Il Miracolo and Crupi are 20-1 longshots. My quick take is that both longshots have a decent chance to outrun their odds, First Mission has the most upside of the group, and National Treasure has one clear advantage on the rest of the field … which brings us to question two.

National Treasure is the horse to catch. (Alex Evers/Eclipse Sportswire)

2. Will anyone challenge National Treasure for the lead? On paper it sure looks like National Treasure might be left all alone in front to set an uncontested pace as he did in winning the Preakness Stakes. In that scenario, the Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile runner-up would be formidable to say the least. It’s very likely that multiple stakes winner #1 Nimitz Class will show early speed from his inside post. First Mission, #9 Grand Aspen, and #12 Skippylongstocking also boast tactical speed, so perhaps National Treasure will at least be forced to expend some energy in the opening half-mile. If not, he could be impossible to catch under Flavien Prat.

3. Can Hoist the Gold handle the 1 1/8-mile distance? Accomplished sprinter #4 Hoist the Gold stretched out to a mile to earn a career-best win in the $500,000 Cigar Mile Handicap. His lone try in a race longer than one mile came in February 2023 when he faded in the final furlong to finish fourth in the 1 1/16-mile Mineshaft Handicap at Fair Grounds. Hoist the Gold is a better horse than he was a year ago and Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez and trainer Dallas Stewart believe he’s up to the task, but this is his first try at 1 1/8 miles and it’s fair to be dubious about his stamina at this distance.

4. Which horse or horses are the fastest according to the speed figures? That depends upon which speed figures you prefer and how far back you want to go. A career-best speed figure gives you a good idea of a horse’s ceiling while their most recent speed figure reveals more about current form. For backers of Daily Racing Form’s Beyer Speed Figures, Hoist the Gold’s 109 Beyer Speed Figure gives him both the best lifetime speed figure in the field as well as the best number in his most recent start. Nimitz Class and Hoist the Gold share the best career-top Equibase Speed Figure at 117, again with Hoist the Gold’s best number coming in his most recent race in the Cigar Mile. According to Brisnet speed ratings, National Treasure and #3 Dynamic One lead the way with a top of 109. Dynamic One earned that number for his win in the Suburban Stakes in July 2022, while National Treasure has the best last-out Brisnet figure earning his 109 for his runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.

5. Are any of the longshots capable of running a big race at a big price? I don’t expect 2023 San Diego Handicap winner #6 Senor Buscador to be anywhere near his 20-1 morning-line price, so let’s explore some other options. Nimitz Class (20-1) is fast enough on paper and might be up to the class test. He could tuck in just behind National Treasure from the inside post and get a ground-saving trip. Dynamic One (15-1) has three wins and two seconds at this distance for a potent tandem in trainer Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz Jr. that has won at a 32% clip at Gulfstream from 100 starts in 2023-24. This is Dynamic One’s second start off a layoff of more than 15 months, but he was very good at his best.

Mike’s Superfecta: 1. First Mission, 2. Dynamic One, 3. Skippylongstocking, 4. National Treasure