Uncontested dominated in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park and will try for a repeat performance there on Monday in the Southwest Stakes. (Eclipse Sportswire)
Over the last 13 years, horses from Oaklawn Park have excelled on the Triple Crown with stars like American Pharoah, Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Curlin, and Lookin At Lucky using the Hot Springs, Ark. track as a springboard to Triple Crown success.
Thirteen promising 3-year-old colts have been entered; and thanks to the large field and wide-open nature of the race, the Southwest offers a lot of potential for making a solid wagering score.
The horse to beat is undoubtedly #3 Uncontested, who won Oaklawn’s Smarty Jones Stakes last month by 5 ¼ lengths while earning an impressive 96 Beyer Speed Figure. While he did get a good setup with a clear early lead, the pace that he set was quick and he still finished nicely.
What is particularly notable about Uncontested’s victory is that it was achieved on a sloppy track. With rain in the forecast for Monday, Uncontested’s proven ability on a wet track is a big positive. Furthermore, after drawing very well in post-position three, Uncontested should have little trouble securing the early lead and figures to be tough to beat.
Another logical contender is #4 Lookin At Lee, who ran second in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes and Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity last year before ending the season with a fourth-place finish in the Grade 1 Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s coming out of the best races and possesses a strong finishing kick, but he hasn’t run since Nov. 5 and might need to get a race under his belt before returning to peak form.
One longshot that has caught my eye is #2 Silver Dust, who is coming off of a similar break having last run on Nov. 20. After finishing a decent fifth in his debut after getting off to a slow start, Silver Dust took a big step forward last time out, unleashing a big rally to win a one-mile maiden race at Churchill Downs by 3 ½ lengths. That race turned out to be a strong one, as third-place finisher Senior Investment has returned to win his next two races, while runner-up Dilettante was an impressive winner at Oaklawn on Jan. 29 and also is entered in the Southwest.
The layoff is a bit of a concern for Silver Dust, although trainer Randy Morse has a respectable record with horses coming off similar breaks, and Silver Dust has posted a series of fast workouts at Oaklawn that suggest he is ready for a big run. With odds of 10-1 on the morning line, I think he’s definitely worth including.
#8 Petrov, runner-up to Uncontested in the Smarty Jones Stakes, should be in the mix as well. He had a tricky trip in the Smarty Jones, making an early move to try and challenge Uncontested, and under the circumstances I thought he ran very well to finish a clear second. He is expected to utilize a less aggressive strategy on Monday, making his run later in the race, which could be a more effective strategy.
Also worth considering is #10 Hence, a 20-1 longshot on the morning line, who won a maiden race at Oaklawn on Jan. 16. While his margin of victory was just three-quarters of a length, that doesn’t even begin to reflect how dominant Hence actually was. Racing on a sloppy track, Hence stumbled at the start and was off the pace early on. He then unleashed an eye-catching rally around the far turn to open up a two-length lead in the homestretch. But at that point, Hence lost his focus and drifted sharply toward the inner rail, losing all his momentum and coming close to falling. As a result, he lost the lead and appeared to be on his way to defeat, but it turned out Hence wasn’t finished yet—instead of a tough defeat, he miraculously re-rallied to win.
Needless to say, Hence ran much better that day than it appears at first glance, and the strength of that race was demonstrated when runner-up Horse Fly came back to win at Oaklawn on Feb. 4. With proven ability on a sloppy track, Hence — like Uncontested — could thrive if wet weather hits Oaklawn on Monday, and 20-1 would be a great price on a very promising colt.
So, how can we take all of this and make a profit betting the Southwest Stakes? Let’s take a shot at keying Uncontested in the exacta while adding Petrov and the longshots Silver Dust and Hence to the mix:
