BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his Derby Dozen with a review of leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 3.

King’s latest list reflects the results of the Virginia Derby and looks ahead to the first two 200-point qualifying races for Derby 151, both set for Saturday, March 22: the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds and the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park.

Check out America’s Best Racing’s Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

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1. Sovereignty

A little less than seven weeks out from the May 3 Kentucky Derby, Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes winner Sovereignty – training toward the March 29 Curlin Florida Derby – represents Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott’s best chance at winning the run For the roses since his success in the first leg of the Triple Crown in 2019. That year, upon the stewards’ disqualification of Maximum Security for interference and his demotion to 17^th, Mott-trained Country House was elevated to first and his stablemate Tacitus was awarded third. In the years since, Mott’s best finish with three starters was a sixth last year from Resilience.

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2. Journalism

Very few stallions consistently pass along class and staying power on dirt like Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms’ Curlin. Nearly all of his multimillionaires, horses such as Vino Rosso, Idiomatic, Malathaat, Exaggerator, Keen Ice, Clairiere, Cody’s Wish, Good Magic, Stellar Wind, Palace Malice, and Nest, won over at least a mile, with one exception being Elite Power, North America’s champion male sprinter in 2022-23. Journalism is proven at a route, capturing the 2024 Los Alamitos Futurity and this year’s DK Horse San Felipe Stakes.

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3. Citizen Bull

Since the formation of the Breeders’ Cup in 1984, the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA has lured many of the best 2-year-olds, and winning the 1 1/16-mile contest obviously requires a horse of high quality. So it is a bit of a surprise that only two Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners have been able to win the Derby six months later – those being Street Sense in 2006-07 and Nyquist in 2015-16. Last year’s BC Juvenile winner Citizen Bull can bid to become the third in 2025, though many wonder how the speedster will react to a demanding pace. He has enjoyed relatively easy front-running trips in rattling off three consecutive graded stakes triumphs.

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4. Barnes

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, reinstated by Churchill Downs Inc. last summer after being banned from competition at CDI tracks after Medina Spirit’s postrace test and eventual disqualification for betamethasone in the 2021 Kentucky Derby, appears headed back to the first leg of the Triple Crown in 2025. Citizen Bull and San Felipe Stakes runner-up Barnes are his top prospects in a bid to win a seventh Derby. The Baffert-trained Cornucopian, a debut maiden winner Feb. 23 at Oaklawn Park, is another uber-talented 3-year-old, though he is far behind in experience.

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5. Coal Battle

Trainer Lonnie Briley told Oaklawn Park publicity late last week that he would continue to take a wait-and-see approach for this colt’s next race. Coal Battle could start in the March 29 Arkansas Derby – seemingly the most likely option given his success at Oaklawn and his training there – the April 5 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, or simply await the May 3 Kentucky Derby. Coal Battle ran a career-best 104 Equibase Speed Figure in taking the Rebel Stakes after seven weeks off, but he has not shown the need for spacing to run to his full potential. Five-for-five on dirt, he won the Smarty Jones Stakes on three weeks’ rest in his start preceding the Rebel.

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6. Burnham Square 

Only nine times has a gelding – as Burnham Square is – won the Kentucky Derby and just twice in modern times with Funny Cide (2003) and Mine That Bird (2009). That duo became quite popular, and without any stud future, they raced past their 3-year-old seasons – Funny Cide to age 7 and Mine That Bird to age 4. Holy Bull Stakes winner Burnham Square, fourth most recently in the Fountain of Youth, appears on target for the Blue Grass after working a half-mile March 14 at Palm Meadows Training Center in :49.

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7. Chancer McPatrick  

His return as a 3-year-old when second to Owen Almighty in the March 8 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby left questions: is this late-running colt not as effective around two turns as one – over which he is a dual Grade 1 winner as a juvenile – or was his loss at Tampa Bay Downs more the result of a slow pace and needing a start to regain fitness? And are his 2-year-old stakes wins as good as they appear at first glance, given the limited subsequent accomplishments of those that were immediately behind him? His next race at 1 1/8 miles, expected to come in the Blue Grass, should answer these questions and determine if he’s a Derby horse or more of a one-turn Pat Day Mile Stakes Presented by SAP type.

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8. Sandman

Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse has won many of the most coveted races in the United States and Canada, including two legs of the American Triple Crown in 2019. That year, War of Will captured the Preakness Stakes after a troubled seventh when interfered with by Maximum Security in the Derby, and Sir Winston won the Belmont Stakes. Casse, winless in the Derby from 10 starters, has one of his best Derby chances with the pricey Sandman, a son of Tapit who ran a slow-starting second in the Southwest Stakes and a rallying third in the Rebel.

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9. River Thames

No trainer has run more horses in the Kentucky Derby than Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, who has started 65, winning with Super Saver (2010) and Always Dreaming (2017). At least in part, his volume of starters reflects the depth and quality that is regularly present in his barn, and of course, the dreams by owners to have a starter in the Derby. Thin with stakes-proven 2-year-olds in 2024, Pletcher’s stable of 3-year-olds on the Derby trail is now led by this colt, the Fountain of Youth runner-up, and the promising up-and-comers Grande and Disruptor.

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10. Tappan Street

Trainer Brad Cox has opted for spacing over experience with many of his top 3-year-olds on the Derby trail this year. Stablemate John Hancock, the morning-line favorite for the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby this Saturday, has just two starts before that key Derby prep, just like this colt, who is unraced since his runner-up finish behind Burnham Square in the Holy Bull Stakes. Training smartly at Payson Park Training Center in preparation for a matchup with Sovereignty and others in the Florida Derby.

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11. Built

Following a Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes in which Built threatened before flattening out in the stretch to finish a distant third behind the now-sidelined Magnitude, trainer Wayne Catalano adds blinkers to Built’s equipment for the March 22 Louisiana Derby. This colt might benefit from the focus blinkers sometimes provide after spotty efforts in his last two races. The Risen Star received a flattering form endorsement when American Promise and Render Judgment, respectively fifth and eighth, ran 1-2 in the March 15 Virginia Derby.

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12. American Promise

Coming off a track record-setting performance in the Virginia Derby, he displaces Captain Cook in the final space in the Dozen. American Promise’s 1 1/8-mile time of 1:46.41 earned him a solid but not crazy-fast Equibase Speed Figure of 101 over an incredibly quick Colonial Downs surface. Most encouraging was how he won. Favored Getaway Car quickly led in the initial strides, but American Promise dialed up the pressure and took a length advantage by the six-furlong stage. The D. Wayne Lukas-trained American Promise – a good-looking, $750,000 purchase at auction – continued to pour it on down the lane to cross the wire 7 ¾ lengths in front of rivals not considered to be leading Kentucky Derby contenders.