Quite a lot has changed on the future-book front for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve since the first edition of this blog for 2026 was published Jan. 15. In the nearly two months since, winter-book favorite Ted Noffey and a few lesser-known 3-year-olds were withdrawn from Derby consideration, while several other horses, many of them based in Florida, have emerged as top-shelf prospects.

We’re deep in the heart of prep season now, with the major qualifying races distributing 200 Derby points to the top five finishers just around the corner.

One of the most intellectually stimulating and potentially rewarding aspects of following up-and-coming Derby contenders is backing your opinion with a future wager, and there are two ways to do it: betting in Churchill Downs’ pari-mutuel pools held during key prep weekends and making a fixed-odds bet via Caesars Sportsbook in Las Vegas.

Churchill’s fifth of six pari-mutuel pools starts Friday, March 13 at noon ET and ends Sunday, March 15 at 6 p.m. ET. Thirty-nine individual horses are offered plus an “all other 3-year-olds” bet that opens at 12-1 odds. Paladin, who won the Remsen Stakes last December and started his 3-year-old season with a victory in the Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes Feb. 14, opens at 5-1 to lead the individual interests.

The Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs will be held Saturday, March 15 — while Churchill’s pool is open — and it offers a total of 105 Derby points to the top five finishers, including 50 to the winner.

Caesars offers fixed-odds wagering on Derby horses, but the catch is bets can be placed only in Nevada, in person or through their geo-restricted app. If you’re traveling there this spring or know someone who is – perhaps heading to this weekend’s National Horseplayers Championship, for example – get your bets in!

Caesars Sportsbook Kentucky Derby Leaderboard (March 9)

1. Paladin (8-1)

2. Commandment (9-1)

3. Chief Wallabee (10-1)

4. Nearly (11-1)

5. Renegade (12-1)

Individual Favorites in Churchill Downs’ Fifth Kentucky Derby Pool (opening March 13)

1. Paladin (5-1)

2. Commandment (6-1)

3. Nearly (8-1)

4. Chief Wallabee (10-1)

5. Potente (15-1)

Early Spring Insights: Paladin has taken Ted Noffey’s spot atop Derby future books, and there’s a lot to like about the Coolmore-owned colt as a prospect, especially his pedigree, which suggests that racing a mile and a quarter will be right in his wheelhouse. That said, to these eyes at least, his win in the Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes came in more of a grinding style than a dazzling one, and speed figures don’t separate Paladin from other top contenders … which makes his 8-1 odds at Caesars and opening 5-1 odds in Churchill’s upcoming pool far too low.

Chief Wallabee (Ryan Thompson/Coglianese Photo)

Chief Wallabee was highlighted as a contender to consider in the first edition of this blog back in January coming off of an eye-catching maiden win in a seven-furlong race at Gulfstream Park. Back then, he was getting 75-1 odds at Caesars and was added to Churchill Downs’ third parimutuel pool at 60-1 odds, closing at 17-1. The buzz was certainly building, and it’s intensified now after Chief Wallabee ran second by a neck to Commandment in the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes. The Constitution colt is 10-1 at Caesars and opens at 10-1 in Churchill’s fifth pool, and those odds give one pause even if you think (as I do) that the best is yet to come. One big positive in Chief Wallabee’s corner is, of course, his trainer. Hall of Famer Bill Mott is on a proverbial heater over the past year-plus and nearly every move he seems to make with his horses is paying off. Last year, Mott expertly guided Sovereignty to peak in late spring and through the summer, and if he can repeat that again with this potential-laden colt, then maybe 10-1 doesn’t look so bad after all. (Mott’s other standout maiden from January, Thunderously, will skip the Kentucky Derby but hopefully will be a player in the division later in the year.)

Tectonic plate shifts are undergoing in Bob Baffert’s barn of Kentucky Derby prospects. Well-bred Plutarch won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes but is now off the Derby trail, and $3 million purchase Brant tired to finish fifth in last week’s San Felipe Stakes Presented by DK Horse as the 4-5 favorite. Brant is now offered at 40-1 odds at Caesars and likewise opens at 40-1 in Churchill’s pool. He appears to be best suited to one-turn races; that is, if he hasn’t already peaked. On the other hand, Baffert-trained Potente closed gamely to win the San Felipe in only his second career start, while the trainer’s Buetane will start in the Virginia Derby and his Litmus Test showed enough in his 3-year-old bow two weeks ago when third in the Rebel Stakes to warrant another shot at a Derby prep as well. As a result of his San Felipe win, Potente is a current underlay at 20-1 odds at Ceasars and 15-1 at Churchill. Buetane is a 50-1 shot on Caesars’ book and opens at the same odds via Churchill, while Litmus Test is getting 55-1 odds through Caesars and 50-1 in Churchill’s pool.

Blacksmith (Eclipse Sportswire)

Late Bloomers?: Two more Bob Baffert trainees might be rounding into top form, although they’ll have to either win or finish second in a race like the Santa Anita Derby or possibly the Arkansas Derby in order to book an early-May trip to Louisville. Cherokee Nation (30-1 Caesars, 20-1 Churchill) is getting a lot of support after routing five opponents by 10 lengths in a one-mile maiden race at Santa Anita Park Feb. 27. The Not This Time colt owned by “the Avengers” partnership had kept very good company in five starts prior to that, nearly defeating FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA runner-up Mr. A. P. last fall, losing a close race to San Felipe runner-up Robusta in January, and then finishing fifth in the Robert B. Lewis after being crowded at the start. His current Derby future odds are too low despite that blowout victory, and a more interesting option in Caesars book is stablemate Blacksmith (currently 75-1). That Liam’s Map colt also won a maiden race in February at Santa Anita after competing against several highly regarded horses in earlier races, including finishing runner-up to Litmus Test in Los Alamitos Futurity back in December. He romped by 3 ¾ lengths in the one-mile maiden, finishing with a slower time than Cherokee Nation, but he might have a better distance pedigree as he’s from the family of Belmont Stakes winners Rags to Riches and Jazil.

Saturday’s Virginia Derby features, along with the aforementioned Buetane, a few contenders from other top stables seeking a turnaround in fortunes. One to watch is Confessional, a Brad Cox-trained Essential Quality colt who finished a well-defeated seventh behind Renegade last out in the Feb. 7 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. He was the 2.80-1 third choice in the Sam F. Davis behind Renegade and The Puma, who finished third and then won the ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby last week. Prior to his stakes debut, Confessional finished second behind next-out Holy Bull Stakes winner Nearly in a seven-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park (as the 7-10 favorite) and won his debut sprinting last fall at Keeneland. This colt’s speed figures are trending in the wrong direction, but his current odds of 125-1 at Caesars and an opening 90-1 in Churchill’s fifth pool have bombs-away appeal as he competes in a wide-open Virginia Derby with an all-but-certain spot in the Kentucky Derby gate as the top prize. Perhaps Confessional’s blah effort in the Sam F. Davis can be attributed to Tampa Bay Downs’ quirky main track. We’ll find out soon.