The $1 million, Grade 1 Whitney Stakes Saturday at Saratoga Race Course continues to garner some of the best Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic division horses year after year, and 2025 is undoubtedly no exception. Eight of the 10 horses entered in the “Win and You’re In” qualifier are millionaires, including 2024 Longines Classic winner Sierra Leone (over $6.2 million), who finished second in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes in his most recent race.
Fierceness (over $4.5 million) was second in last year’s Longines Classic and after a runner-up finish in the June 7 Hill ‘n’ Dale Metropolitan Handicap stretches out to the Whitney’s 1 1/8-mile distance where he’s perfect in two starts. Mindframe (over $1.8 million) beat Sierra Leone in the Foster after winning the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes Presented by Ford on the Kentucky Derby undercard. White Abarrio (just over $7 million) won the 2023 Whitney and Longines Classic as well as the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes in January, and he most recently finished fourth in the Metropolitan Handicap. Skippylongstocking (over $3.6 million) won the Grade 2 Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes in May, his most recent start. Highland Falls (over $1.3 million) won the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes at Saratoga last September and recently returned to win after nearly eight months off. Post Time (over $1.3 million) finished second in the Grade 1 Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile last fall and came just a neck shy of finishing second in the 2024 Whitney. Disarm (over $1.4 million) won the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes in 2023 and has won two of nine races since, neither of them stakes. Mama’s Gold won the Empire Classic Stakes (for New York-breds only) at the distance of the Whitney last October but is winless in his last four races, none of them graded stakes. Contrary Thinking rounds out the field, moving way up in class following a win in a first-level allowance race in June.
Analysis and contenders:
Before getting deep into the contender analysis, there are two very interesting things which almost jump off the page when first looking at this year’s Whitney field. The first regards Contrary Thinking. This gelding is trained by Chad Brown, who also saddles Sierra Leone, and is owned by Peter Brant, a part-owner of Sierra Leone. Contrary Thinking has run five times, never past a mile and never around two turns, and he won a first-level allowance race in his most recent start. He won that race when leading from start to finish, and considering Sierra Leone runs best when the pace is fast early and no horse with early speed gets an easy lead, I must conclude Contrary Thinking is entered to ensure an honest pace for Sierra Leone to capitalize on. The second very interesting note is about Mindframe, who won the Churchill Downs Stakes in May and the Stephen Foster Stakes in June. Mindframe has jockey Jose Gomez named to ride, who has never ridden the horse previously, and trainer Todd Pletcher has stated that it is likely Mindframe will make his next start in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes at Saratoga at the end of August and will only run in the Whitney if something unforeseen were to happen to Pletcher’s other trainee, Fierceness – in which case it is logical to assume that colt’s jockey, Hall of Famer John Velazquez, will take the assignment on Mindframe.
With those two important factors in mind, I must start with Sierra Leone as the one to beat in this year’s Whitney, particularly if Mindframe withdraws. Sierra Leone rallied courageously in the Stephen Foster Stakes in his most recent race, missing by a length to Mindframe while a length clear of another quality runner in First Mission. That was his first start following three months off, yet Sierra Leone improved to a career-best 117 Equibase Speed Figure despite finishing second. That figure was one point higher than the 116 Sierra Leone earned winning the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Making his third start of 2025, Sierra Leone could improve on his recent 117 Equibase figure, particularly since he has some strong early speed targets to run down in the form of stablemate Contrary Thinking as well as Mama’s Gold, who has set the early pace in his last six races and who has earned all six of his career wins leading from start to finish.
White Abarrio has won 10 of 20 career starts run on a fast dirt track, which he will likely get in this year’s Whitney. In the 2023 running of this race, White Abarrio stalked the pacesetter in second for the first three quarters of a mile and then won easily by 6 ¼ lengths, earning a career-best 122 Equibase Speed Figure. Three years later at the age of 6 he’s still winning graded stakes, having captured the Pegasus World Cup Invitational in January with a 110 figure. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has been aboard for the horse’s last five wins including the 2023 Whitney, and he (along with his agent) have chosen White Abarrio over Skippylongstocking, who he rode to victory in the Hollywood Gold Cup in May. It also should be noted Ortiz Jr. has ridden Mindframe to three graded stakes victories this year.
Some readers may be surprised that Post Time is a horse I consider with a chance to post the upset in this year’s Whitney but others may agree, given that the horse has never finished worse than third in 18 races. As mentioned above, he finished a neck behind runner-up Crupi in last year’s Whitney at odds of 25-1. Post Time earned a 108 Equibase Speed Figure in that race, and then proved again that he belongs in top company when second of 13 last fall in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile with a 115 figure.
Fierceness has shown to be an accomplished equine athlete with five straight first- or second-place efforts in graded stakes. He began that streak a little over a year ago when winning the Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun at Saratoga with a 108 Equibase Figure (finishing one length in front of Sierra Leone) and then won the DraftKings Travers Stakes last August with a 111 figure and defeating eventual Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna by a head. Sierra Leone turned the tables on his foe when winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic by 1 ½ lengths over Fierceness last November, yet Fierceness held firm by earning a 114 figure. Making his 4-year-old debut in May and following six months off, Fierceness won the Alysheba Stakes Presented by Sentient Jet with a new career-best 117 figure. He then shortened up to a mile for the Metropolitan Handicap last month, and there Fierceness could not pass front-running winner Raging Torrent. In the Whitney, he’ll be stretching back out to a mile-and-an-eighth distance where he’s undefeated in two starts, and Fierceness should be competitive once again.
One more horse I’ll mention is Skippylongstocking, who shows up nearly every time he runs and who has finished in the top three in nine of his last 12 races, including his win in the Hollywood Gold Cup where he earned a 109 Equibase Speed Figure at the end of May. Irad Ortiz Jr. was in the saddle for that race and will be replaced by his brother Jose Ortiz for the Whitney. Jose guided Skippylongstocking to victory in the Charles Town Classic Stakes and the Oaklawn Handicap in 2024, and he earned Equibase figures of 115 and 116 in those respective races. The only question mark with him surrounds the fact that in his last four tries at this Grade 1 stakes level, Skippylongstocking has finished third, fifth, sixth and third.
The rest of the Whitney Field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Contrary Thinking (95), Disarm (107), Highland Falls (113), Mama’s Gold (117) and Mindframe (118).
Win contenders, in preference order:
Sierra Leone
White Abarrio
Post Time
