The $3 million, Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes Presented by Baccarat closes out an exceptional race card on Saturday, Jan. 27, at Gulfstream Park, and the best may have been saved for last as this race brings together a field of 12 plus one also-eligible who can run if a horse in the main body of the race withdraws.
The group is very evenly matched, with seven of the dozen in the main body having won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 stakes in their careers. National Treasure, who has banked more than $1.6 million to date, won the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes last May against his own age group, and arguably his best effort of 2023 came in his final race of the year when he finished second by a nose in the Grade 1 Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. Among the five Grade 2 stakes winners in the field, we start with Skippylongstocking, who has career earnings of nearly $1.6 million; that horse’s most recent win in top company came in the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic Stakes last summer. Hoist the Gold, who boasts more than $1.1 million in career earnings, won the Grade 2 Cigar Mile Handicap last month and is trying to run as well as he moves to a two-turn race for the first time in nearly a year. Trademark posted a 13.10-1 upset in the Grade 2 Clark Stakes Presented by Norton Healthcare when last seen in the fall, making him another millionaire in the field. He defeated First Mission by a nose in the Clark, and that runner-up has never finished worse than second in five career starts. Senor Buscador won the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap last July to prove he belongs at this level on his best day.
O’Connor and Grand Aspen were separated by a neck when first and second, respectively, in the Grade 3 Harlan’s Holiday Stakes at Gulfstream four weeks ago and add to the depth of talent. Grade 3 winner Il Miracolo was third in the Clark when last seen, which came one race after he lost by a head to O’Connor in the Grade 2 Hagyard Fayette Stakes. Dynamic One, who won the Grade 2 Suburban Stakes during the summer of 2022, returned after more than 15 months to finish fifth last month and can improve. Nimitz Class has only finished worse than second once in his last 10 races, which include a win in the Parx Dirt Mile Stakes last September. Crupi enters the Pegasus World Cup Invitational off wins in the Discovery Stakes and Queens County Stakes. Also-eligible Castle Chaos tried graded stakes company for the first time in the Cigar Mile and finished third in the field of 12.
Analysis and top contenders in this very deep and talented group:
As trainer Todd Pletcher has won five of the last 14 editions of the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (formerly the Donn Handicap), examining his three entrants in this race first is a strategy worth considering. Among the trio consisting of Crupi, Dynamic One and Grand Aspen, the latter gets the nod because although Crupi has won two stakes in a row, neither were graded and his best effort of the pair earned him a 103 Equibase Speed Figure. That figure is unlikely to be good enough if repeated in the Pegasus, as the top horses in the field have earned figures ranging from 109 to 117 recently and in similar stakes. Dynamic One was away from the races for more than 15 months until his return on Dec. 22, and he came back with a non-competitive fifth place effort, making it unlikely he can run well enough to compete with the best of this group. On the other hand, Grand Aspen is a lightly raced horse who joined the Pletcher barn last summer and who has been highly competitive in all six of his races since then. He ran on turf in his first three races for Pletcher last summer, winning once and placing twice. Then, when moved to dirt in October, he found a home, losing by a neck in an allowance optional claiming race and earning a then career-best 101 figure. That effort was followed by a sparking three-length allowance win at 1 1/8 miles, the distance of the Pegasus. Jumping into graded stakes competition for the first time on Dec. 30 for the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes, Grand Aspen ran the best race of his career when moving from second to lead with a quarter mile to run, opening up, and then just losing by a neck on the wire to O’Connor. He’s improved from a 108 figure on Nov. 24 to 113 on Dec. 30, and that pattern suggests Grand Aspen can take another step forward to win this prestigious race.
In a race similar to the Harlan’s Holiday, namely the abovementioned Clark Stakes on Nov. 24, Trademark and First Mission ran the best races of their careers, earning 112 figures when separated by a nose at the finish. Trademark won that battle, with exceptional riding on the part of Fernando De La Cruz. That jockey had ridden the horse just one time prior to the Clark, winning the Michael G. Schaefer Memorial Stakes in July. First Mission, who was making his second start following six months off in the Clark, is another high-level horse and he’s shown he belongs in graded stakes with a win in the Grade 3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes in spring 2023 and his near-miss in the Clark. Needless to say, both horses would be no surprise if successful in this year’s Pegasus.
O’Connor is another contender in good form, having won two important stakes races in a row. In October, O’Connor won the Fayette Stakes at the distance of the Pegasus with a 103 figure, and then improved to a Grade 1-quality 113 figure last month over Gulfstream’s track when winning the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes. It must be noted the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes is the local prep for the Pegasus, having replaced the Hal’s Hope Stakes which until 2020 was run in the first two weeks of January. Historically, whether it be the Hal’s Hope or the Harlan’s Holiday, the local prep for the Pegasus has had a lot of significance. That’s another reason we can expect Harlan’s Holiday winner O’Connor, as well as runner-up Grand Aspen, to have a big say in the Pegasus outcome.
About likely betting favorite National Treasure… certainly the 115 figure he earned when beaten a nose by Cody’s Wish in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile would make the colt very competitive if repeated, and there is no reason it can’t be repeated. On the other hand, in his only successful effort beyond a mile, the 2023 Preakness Stakes, National Treasure faced only six other horses and established an easy lead on very slow fractions before holding on to win by a head. In the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, National Treasure once again attempted to use his early speed to his best advantage and led until the final yards. He has never come from off the pace to win and when he does not get the lead, he does not show any kick in the late stages. In this field, with Hoist the Gold coming out of one-turn races and routinely running the first half-mile in about 45 seconds – and with Hoist the Gold drawn inside of National Treasure in the gate – it is highly unlikely National Treasure will get the easy early lead he needs to succeed.
The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure): Castle Chaos (107), Crupi (103), Dynamic One (109 in 2022), Hoist the Gold (117 in a one-turn race), Il Miracolo (104), Nimitz Class (117), Senor Buscador (111) and Skippylongstocking (109).
Win Contenders in preference/probability order:
Grand Aspen
Trademark
First Mission
O’Connor
Pick 4
5/9/13-11-9-7/13
5/9/13-11-9-7/13
$347
Pick 5
10-5/9/13-11-9-7/13
10-5/9/13-11-9-7/13
$2,036
Pick 5
10-5/9/13-11-9-7/13
10-5/9/13-11-9-7/13
$26
Pick 6 Jackpot
1/6/9/10/12/14-10-5/9/13-11-9-
1/6/9/10/12/14-10-5/9/13-11-9-
$2,121
Superfecta
7-6-11-4
7-6-11-4
$520
Super High Five
7-6-11-4-2
7-6-11-4-2
$41,350
Trifecta
7-6-11
7-6-11
$291
Pick 4
5/9/13-11-9-7/13
5/9/13-11-9-7/13
$347
Pick 5
10-5/9/13-11-9-7/13
10-5/9/13-11-9-7/13
$2,036
Pick 5
10-5/9/13-11-9-7/13
10-5/9/13-11-9-7/13
$26
Pick 6 Jackpot
1/6/9/10/12/14-10-5/9/13-11-9-
1/6/9/10/12/14-10-5/9/13-11-9-
$2,121
Superfecta
7-6-11-4
7-6-11-4
$520
Super High Five
7-6-11-4-2
7-6-11-4-2
$41,350
Trifecta
7-6-11
7-6-11
$291
