Saturday’s $300,000, Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes is the final Southern California prep for the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance. The 1 1/16-mile dirt race is held at Santa Anita Park, making the results especially notable since this year’s FanDuel Juvenile will be run right back at “The Great Race Place” and at the same distance on Nov. 3.
Eight 2-year-olds were entered in the American Pharoah, which is named after the 2015 Horse of the Year and Triple Crown winner who aced his first two-turn test in this race (then named the FrontRunner Stakes) back in 2014.
Bob Baffert, who trained American Pharoah, has two contenders for Saturday’s renewal, Muth (#2) and Wine Me Up (#4). Baffert has won the American Pharoah Stakes a record 11 times, including four out of the last five runnings and the last two in a row. It’s worth noting that Best Pal Stakes and Runhappy Del Mar Futurity winner Prince of Monaco, generally considered the top juvenile male in Baffert’s stable, is skipping the American Pharoah and will train up to a start in the FanDuel Juvenile.
Muth, a Good Magic colt purchased for $2 million earlier this year by Amr Zedan, finished second by 4 ¼ lengths to Prince of Monaco in the Grade 3 Best Pal Stakes at three-quarters of a mile Aug. 13 but well clear of third-place finisher Raging Torrent (#5). Muth romped in his career debut going five furlongs one start prior to the Best Pal, defeating American Pharoah starter El Magnifico (#8) by 8 ¾ lengths. He should be able to handle stretching out to 1 1/16 miles and has posted a sequence of four swift workouts at Del Mar and Santa Anita leading into this race.
Several runners who finished behind Prince of Monaco in the seven-furlong, Grade 1 Runhappy Del Mar Futurity also return for the American Pharoah including third-place Next Level (#3) along with the aforementioned Raging Torrent and Rothschild (#1), who finished fourth and last of six in the Del Mar Futurity. That being said, Baffert’s other contender, Wine Me Up, looked impressive his only career start and will be my top win selection in the American Pharoah. The chestnut colt by 2019 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso debuted in a six-furlong maiden race Sept. 2 at Del Mar and took pressure from start to finish as he set the pace, reeling off fast fractions into the stretch. He found another gear to extend his lead late, defeating the colt that had hounded him throughout by 1 ½ lengths. The other colt providing some pressure early on – another Baffert trainee owned by the same connections as Wine Me Up – faded from third to finish fifth as the betting favorite.
Wine Me Up has a good pedigree for racing around two turns, as his dam Deanaallen’skitten, by Kitten’s Joy, was a multiple stakes winner who earned more than $374,000 racing mainly on turf, hitting the board in 18 of 21 starts. All of her wins came at distances between a mile and 1 1/16 miles.
Muth and Wine Me Up figure to be two of the three post-time favorites in the American Pharoah along with New York-based Be You (#6), who raced twice at Saratoga for owner Mike Repole and trainer Todd Pletcher. The Curlin colt lost his debut by a nose in a six-furlong maiden race and then ran a solid fourth in the seven-furlong Hopeful Stakes on Saratoga’s closing card (Muth shipped to New York to run in the Hopeful but was then scratched). Be You loomed a threat in early stretch but hesitated when caught between horses nearing the finish in the Hopeful, which was won by last-to-first longshot Nutella Fella.
My betting strategy for the American Pharoah is below, and will start with a win wager on Wine Me Up. Juan Hernandez, who was aboard for Wine Me Up’s maiden win, will ride Muth Saturday as he has also piloted that colt in both of his starts. Ramon Vazquez takes the mount on Wine Me Up, and hopefully the jockey assignments will help keep my selection’s odds in the 3-1 to 4-1 range (I expect his morning-line odds of 12-1 to drop quite a bit before post time). None of these contenders has tried 1 1/16 miles around two turns before, and if Wine Me Up can display the speed he showed in his debut at this longer distance, he could be tough to handle.
Here’s what to say at the betting window or enter in your ITW account:
Betting strategy on a $10 budget:
Santa Anita Park, Race 9, $10 to win on #4 Wine Me Up
Betting strategy on a $20 budget:
Santa Anita Park, Race 9, $10 to win on #4 Wine Me Up
Santa Anita Park, Race 9, $6 straight exacta, #4 and #2, Wine Me Up with Muth
Santa Anita Park, Race 9, $2 exacta, key #4 Wine Me Up over #6 Be You and #8 El Magnifico (totaling $4)
Pick 6
KEE/SA BC P6 6-1-2/9-5-6-2
KEE/SA BC P6 6-1-2/9-5-6-2
$8
Pick 6
KEE/SA BC P6 6-1-2/9-5-6-2
KEE/SA BC P6 6-1-2/9-5-6-2
$342
Superfecta
2-4-6-5
2-4-6-5
$10
Super High Five
2-4-6-5-1
2-4-6-5-1
$209
Pick 6
KEE/SA BC P6 6-1-2/9-5-6-2
KEE/SA BC P6 6-1-2/9-5-6-2
$8
Pick 6
KEE/SA BC P6 6-1-2/9-5-6-2
KEE/SA BC P6 6-1-2/9-5-6-2
$342
Superfecta
2-4-6-5
2-4-6-5
$10
Super High Five
2-4-6-5-1
2-4-6-5-1
$209
