It’s a good bet that the NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies could be one of the best wagering races on dirt of the Future Stars Friday card at Keeneland. With a capacity crowd in attendance both in the stands and in the starting gate, it might be a good idea to look past tepid morning-line favorite #10 Chocolate Gelato (7-2) from the Todd Pletcher barn.
There is no question that this talented 2-year-old filly by Practical Joke is going in the right direction for Repole Stable. She delivered a signature win in the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes during the Belmont at the Big A Meet on Oct. 2. Some of her competitors are back to face her again, but I would argue that she got away with one in that race. She might not be so lucky this time around against a much better field.
For my money, I much prefer the look of Steve Asmussen’s Three Chimneys Farm homebred #9 Grand Love (20-1). A lightly-raced 2-year-old by rising sire Gun Runner, this filly only has a pair of races to her credit, but make no mistake, she has breakaway speed. I am thinking that if jockey Florent Geroux can get her to the lead, she will have a great chance to protect that coveted lead.
The pace meltdown in the Grade 3 Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs will make some doubt her ability to go longer. I would not judge that effort too harshly, especially since Asmussen has made a career out of recalibrating. This filly’s workmanlike efforts in training could be interpreted as a positive.
The Hall of Fame trainer is not known for putting his horses through bullet works. Still, she looks fit in the wake of her initial attempt around two turns, which is also a good sign. What we are assured of is that her price will be in the double-digit range. That’s juicy, for sure.
Much of the attention among bettors will be occupied with a rematch between Brad Cox’s #7 Chop Chop (4-1) and Mark Casse’s #5 Wonder Wheel (5-1). As the second and third choices on Nick Tammaro’s morning line, these two fillies fought all the way to the finish line in the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland during Fall Stars weekend.
Even though the Casse filly triumphed, most insiders thought Cox’s daughter of City of Light showed heart, rallying from the clouds, only to lose by a nose. Either of these runners can win, based on their performance on the Keeneland main track. They both were high-price purchases by their connections at more than $200,000.
I will be using the Cox entry, but Asmussen’s filly looks to be a sleeper pick at a fabulous price!
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 to win on #9 ($10)
What to say at the betting window: Breeders’ Cup Keeneland, Race 7, $10 to win on #9
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$20 to win on #9 ($20)
What to say at the betting window: Breeders’ Cup Keeneland, Race 7, $20 to win on #9
$5 exacta box: 7,9 ($10)
What to say at the betting window: Breeders’ Cup Keeneland, Race 7, $5 exacta box 7,9
Wagering Strategy on a $80 Budget
Graduated bet on #9 ($68)
What to say at the betting window: Breeders’ Cup Keeneland, Race 7, $5 to win on #9, $15 to place on #9, and $48 to show on #9
$2 trifecta box: 7,9,10 ($12)
What to say at the betting window: Breeders’ Cup Keeneland, Race 7, $2 trifecta box 7,9,10