Many of the horses entered in Saturday’s $500,000, Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park appear evenly matched. There’s not much separating their best performances.
The undefeated #2 Potente, for example, proved only a head better than #4 Robusta when rallying to win the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes Presented by DK Horse. #5 So Happy finished 2 1/4 lengths behind them in third place, but he previously delivered a stronger performance to win the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes by two lengths. Meanwhile, #7 Intrepido recently finished second in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, 3 1/4 lengths ahead of Secured Freedom, who returned to run 3 1/2 lengths behind Potente and Robusta in the San Felipe.
But then there’s #1 Cherokee Nation, the ultimate wild card for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has won the Santa Anita Derby eight times. Cherokee Nation has struggled with consistency, and he was beaten 6 3/4 lengths when fifth in the Robert B. Lewis.
On Feb. 27, however, Cherokee Nation elevated his game to a new level. In a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita, he pressed quarter-mile fractions of :22.64 and :46.19, took over the lead through three-quarters of a mile in a swift 1:09.91, and then clocked his final quarter-mile in a strong :24.59 to draw off and dominate by 10 lengths.
Cherokee Nation reached the finish line in a blazing 1:34.50, which the Daily Racing Form reported to be the fastest dirt mile run at Santa Anita since 2016. This powerful performance yielded a 100 Beyer Speed Figure, the highest number belonging to any horse entered in the Santa Anita Derby.
The question is, can Cherokee Nation repeat that performance while stepping back up against tougher competition? It’s not guaranteed. But if he does, the rest of the Santa Anita Derby entrants may be running for second place. And that makes Cherokee Nation an appealing horse to bet. If his “A” game will in all likelihood deliver victory, then betting he’s turned a corner is a sound strategy given he’s unlikely to start at unreasonably short odds.
We recommend betting Cherokee Nation to win, and — if your budget is large enough — playing him on top of superfecta tickets emphasizing Intrepido underneath. Intrepido won the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes Presented by DK Horse last fall and appears very likely to record a top-four finish in the Santa Anita Derby.
Wagering Strategy on a $12 Budget
$12 to win on #1 Cherokee Nation
What to say at the betting window: Santa Anita, Race 10, $12 to win on 1
Wagering Strategy on a $36 Budget
$18 to win on #1 Cherokee Nation
What to say at the betting window: Santa Anita, Race 10, $10 to win on 1
$1 superfecta: 1 with 7 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,5 (total cost: $6)
What to say at the betting window: Santa Anita, Race 10, $1 superfecta 1 with 7 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,5
$1 superfecta: 1 with 2,4,5 with 7 with 2,4,5 (total cost: $6)
What to say at the betting window: Santa Anita, Race 10, $1 superfecta 1 with 2,4,5 with 7 with 2,4,5
$1 superfecta: 1 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,5 with 7 (total cost: $6)
What to say at the betting window: Santa Anita, Race 10, $1 superfecta 1 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,5 with 7
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
