Saturday’s Grade 1 Arlington Million Stakes, the world’s first million-dollar Thoroughbred race in 1981, drew a field of eight older males. Contested at 1 ¼ miles on the turf, the Arlington Million will be run for the fourth time at Colonial Downs, having previously been a staple of Arlington International Racecourse. Notable winners include John Henry, Paradise Creek, The Tin Man, Gio Ponti, and Bricks and Mortar. Last year’s Arlington Million winner Fort Washington will try to become the second horse to win the historic race twice.
Here’s a look at the field from the rail out:
Dresden Row, who has finished in the top three in all 18 career starts, drew the rail at 7-2 on the morning line for trainer Todd Pletcher. The 5-year-old by Lord Nelson has spent most of his career on the all-weather surface at Woodbine but won two straight at the allowance level on the turf at Keeneland Race Course and Churchill Downs when switching to the Pletcher stable. Last time out, Dresden Row finished third behind Mercante in the Grade 2 Wise Dan Stakes and will have Tyler Gaffalione aboard for the first time. Layabout, the longest price on the morning line at 20-1, led from start to finish in the 1 ½-mile William L. McKnight Stakes Presented by Woodford Reserve Bourbon at Gulfstream Park to start his 4-year-old campaign in January. The Laoban gelding subsequently was unplaced in a pair of Gulfstream stakes and will be making just his second career start outside of Florida for trainer Patrick Biancone. Last year’s Million winner Fort Washington, who is 5-1 on the morning line, is one of two entrants for trainer Shug McGaughey. This will be Fort Washington’s 20th graded stakes appearance. The 7-year-old by War Front won the Grade 3 Dinner Party Stakes on Preakness day and most recently finished seventh in the Wise Dan behind Arlington Million contenders Mercante and Dresden Row. Javier Castellano, who has been sidelined for the past month due to an injury, will be aboard Fort Washington for the first time since March 2022. Integration at 4-1 morning-line odds is the second contender for the McGaughey barn. He finished runner up in the 2024 Arlington Million and third a year ago in this race. The 6-year-old by Quality Road earned a 117 Equibase Speed Figure last time out when finishing fifth, beaten by just 1 ¾ lengths, in the Grade 1 Resorts World Casino Manhattan Stakes at Saratoga Race Course. Burnham Square, the 5-2 morning line favorite, is going for his fourth consecutive stakes win on turf for trainer Ian Wilkes with Brian Hernandez Jr. back aboard. The 4-year-old Liam’s Map gelding was a Grade 1 winner on dirt in the 2025 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and ran sixth in the 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. Since switching to the turf for the second half of his 3-year-old campaign, Burnham Square is 5-for-5 in the exacta on grass. Test Score, a two-time Grade 1 winner on grass with 9-2 morning line odds, finished runner-up last time out by a half-length in the Manhattan, earning a career-best (and best in this field) 119 Equibase Speed Figure. Mercante, who is cross-entered in the Green River Island Stakes at Ellis Park on Sunday, is fresh off a runner-up finish to Lagynos in the Wise Dan for trainer Brian Knippenberg. The 6-year-old Gun Runner gelding ranks first in this field by average class with a 108 and is listed at 12-1 on the morning line. Gran Oriente was a Group 1 winner in his native Chile before shipping to the U.S. for the 2025 FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile Presented by PDJF. The 5-year-old by Classic Empire has fired off back-to-back stakes wins at Gulfstream Park since switching to the Saffie Joseph Jr. barn in May, and Paco Lopez will be aboard for the first time.
Analysis and Main Contenders:
Burnham Square is an immensely talented gelding who has been able to find his groove as a 4-year-old. Burnham Square ran his first nine career races on the dirt, winning both the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes and Blue Grass Stakes on the main track. Following losses in the Kentucky Derby, Matt Winn Stakes, and NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes, Burnham Square was switched to the turf by trainer Ian Wilkes. In his first start on grass, Burnham Square finished second by a head in the DK Horse Nashville Derby Invitational Stakes at Kentucky Downs and has not been back on dirt since. This season as a 4-year-old, Burnham Square started the year with another runner-up finish in February following a long layoff before firing off three stakes wins in a row. He dominated the Grade 2 VisitLEX Elkhorn Stakes in April at Keeneland by 9 ¾ lengths when stretching out to 1 ½ miles and followed with another dominant win in the Grade 3 Louisville Stakes at Churchill by 4 ¾ lengths. Last time out in the Chorleywood Stakes, Burnham Square was forced to set the pace, which is not his preferred running style. He succumbed to outside pressure in the stretch and was passed by Chapman’s Peak but fought back on the inside in a tenacious effort to win by a neck. In this year’s Arlington Million, Layabout and Mercante are prime contenders to set the pace, giving Burnham Square an opportunity to revert to his preferred run style and sit back in the early part of the race then pounce at the quarter-pole. Burnham Square has been on a steadily improving pattern since switching to the turf as well with a string of 100-105-106-107-107 Equibase Speed Figures. Hernandez Jr., who was aboard for the Blue Grass win as well as four of Burnham Square’s five turf races, will be back in the irons, which is a great sign given their affinity together. Oddly enough, Ian Wilkes has not made a start at Colonial Downs in nearly four years, which could be a sign that he thinks this race is the perfect spot for Burnham Square. While he is not the fastest nor does he outclass this group, Burnham Square is the one to beat given his improving speed figures and a pace scenario that should set up perfectly for his running style.
Test Score, a multiple Grade 1 winner on turf, could very well win this race and offers fantastic value at 9-2 on the morning line. The 4-year-old Lookin At Lucky colt will be making his fifth consecutive Grade 1 start in this race. At the end of his 3-year-old campaign, Test Score finished third by a half-length in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby at Del Mar and then started the new year off with a win in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes in January. After a freshening, Test Score disappointed in May in the Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes before a much-improved effort when second by a half-length to Deterministic in the Manhattan Stakes at 1 3/16 miles. Test Score earned a 119 Equibase Speed Figure in the Manhattan, which had a class rating of 118, and was gaining with every stride in the final eighth of a mile. Along with his highest last-out speed figure in this field, Test Score also ranks first by late pace with a 116.5 rating. Over the past six months, horses in turf route graded stakes races with both attributes win at 29% from 66 starts and finish 76% in the money. While it may be tough for Test Score to repeat that effort in the Manhattan, that runner-up performance could certainly win against this group. Manny Franco was aboard Test Score for both of his career Grade 1 victories as well as the Manhattan, and it is a positive that he will be back aboard the colt once again. Trainer Graham Motion and Franco have had just one start at Colonial together over the past three years, which was a win in the Da Hoss Stakes in September 2024. Test Score should benefit from a presumably quick pace, and like Burnham Square will very likely be racing mid-pack before pouncing in the lane. With his ability to perform well against some of the best turf horses in the country, Test Score is a formidable contender at a solid price.
Integration is no stranger to the Colonial Downs with five starts at the New Kent, Va. track. He has a record of a win, a second, and one third in three tries on this outer turf course and also is 2-for-2 on the inner turf at Colonial. Integration started his career at Colonial with a 6 ½-length victory in his debut and subsequently earned 17 consecutive triple-digit Equibase Speed Figures. Along with ranking first by average speed with a 110, Integration also ranks first in early and middle pace and is tied for first by late pace with Test Score at 116.5. Integration ranks second by average class and will be making his 11th Grade 1 appearance. Like Test Score, Integration also exits the Manhattan Stakes, where he finished fifth but was just 1 ¾ lengths behind winner Deterministic, earning a 117 speed figure. Integration was farther back than usual in the Manhattan, and if he gets a more mid- pack position he should be able to finish extremely well with a great chance to finish in the money if not win. Integration has been training forwardly since the Manhattan, including a half-mile workout in :47 on the Saratoga turf. McGaughey brings heavy hitters to Colonial. Over the past year, he has won at 32% from 44 starts at the track, winning at 38% in the same timeframe in stakes races. Integration is a formidable contender and could win against this ultra-competitive group.
The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure in similar races): Dresden Row (110), Layabout (108), Fort Washington (114), Mercante (114) and Gran Oriente (108).
Win Contenders in Preference Order:
Burnham Square
Test Score
Integration
