Three years ago, a Godolphin homebred filly named Pretty Mischievous sprung a 10.37-1 upset in the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs. Coming off a pair of wins in Oaks prep races at Fair Grounds, Pretty Mischievous overcame a wide trip to prevail by a neck for jockey Tyler Gaffalione and trainer Brendan Walsh.

Will history repeat itself in the 2026 Longines Kentucky Oaks? Godolphin, Walsh, and Gaffalione are back with #12 Bella Ballerina (12-1), who comes into the May 1 Kentucky Oaks off of the same two-race sequence at Fair Grounds and just so happens to be Pretty Mischievous’ half-sister (same dam [mother], different sire [father]).

Bella Ballerina trains for the Oaks at Churchill. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Bella Ballerina has already proven her worth at Churchill Downs. In the Golden Rod Stakes last fall, she opened up a big lead in midstretch and dug deep late to win by half a length.

The daughter of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense has been every bit as good this year. She led nearly all the way to win the Fasig-Tipton Rachel Alexandra Stakes by half a length, battling back after being passed in the homestretch. Then in the Fasig-Tipton Fair Grounds Oaks, she raced a bit too eagerly up and on the pace, but still fought gamely down the homestretch to finish second while pulling 4 ¾ lengths clear of the third-place finisher.

Bella Ballerina will race without blinkers for the first time in the Kentucky Oaks. Removing blinkers may help Bella Ballerina relax and save more energy for the homestretch. Combine this possibility with her sharp recent workouts, and Bella Ballerina has a clear path to emulate her half-sister with an upset win in the Kentucky Oaks.

Assuming Bella Ballerina’s 12-1 morning-line odds hold up, a win bet will pay nicely if she comes home on top. But we also recommend betting Bella Ballerina in exacta tickets alongside #2 Zany (4-1), #9 Always a Runner (10-1), and #10 Prom Queen (8-1).

Zany won her first three starts in fine fashion before finishing second in the Central Bank Ashland Stakes, in which she was compromised by a slow pace.

Always a Runner is unbeaten in two starts and recently unleashed a strong finish to win the Gazelle Stakes.

Prom Queen, from the barn of three-time Kentucky Oaks-winning trainer Brad Cox, exits a 2 ¾-length triumph in the Gulfstream Park Oaks Presented by City National Bank.

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$10 to win on #12 Bella Ballerina

What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, 13^th race, $10 to win on 12

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$15 to win on #12 Bella Ballerina

What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, 13^th race, $15 to win on 12

$2 exacta: 12 with 2,9,10 (total cost: $6)

What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, 13^th race, $2 exacta 12 with 2,9,10

$3 exacta: 2,9,10 with 12 (total cost: $9)

What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, 13^th race, $3 exacta 2,9,10 with 12

Good luck, and enjoy the race!