Sunday’s $1 million Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park is an important qualifier for the May 2 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and an appealing betting race. Nine 3-year-olds are expected to run (#1 Bravaro will be scratched and run instead in Saturday’s Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park). The field includes the Mark Casse-trained winners of Oaklawn’s two prior Kentucky Derby preps, #6 Strategic Risk (Smarty Jones Stakes) and #7 Silent Tactic (Southwest Stakes).
There’s also a Bob Baffert-trained California invader to reckon with in #2 Litmus Test, who hasn’t raced since winning the Los Alamitos Futurity in December, and another highly touted Derby prospect in #4 Blackout Time. That colt is trained by Ken McPeek and will be ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr., winners of the 2024 Kentucky Derby with Mystik Dan. Blackout Time has not been seen since Oct. 4, when he finished second to 2025 champion 2-year-old male Ted Noffey and 2 ¼ lengths clear of Litmus Test in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland.
Blackout Time (9-5) and Litmus Test (7-2) are the two favorites on the Rebel Stakes morning line, due in part to their high speed figures at age 2 and also to their keeping good company with the currently sidelined Ted Noffey. I’ll be taking a stand against both in the Rebel, however, and instead putting my bankroll behind the two prior Oaklawn stakes winners and a pair of prospects that I believe might be on the verge of a breakthrough: #3 Class President and #8 Rancho Santa Fe.
Class President ships in from Gulfstream Park where he won first out in back in late December running a one-turn mile, stalking the pace, stalling for a moment behind the leaders entering the stretch, and then finishing with interest. The Todd Pletcher trainee next finished second to pacesetting 1-5 favorite Solitude Dude in the seven-furlong Swale Stakes at Gulfstream. Solitude Dude is entered in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, and Swale third-place finisher Hammond is entered in Saturday’s Gotham Stakes, a Kentucky Derby points race at Aqueduct. I’ll be keeping a close eye on how both of those horses perform and adjust my wagering support for Class President accordingly. This Uncle Mo colt has ascending speed figures and is bred to thrive racing around two turns. One of the best jockeys in history, John Velazquez, travels with him from Florida to ride. He’s 10-1 on the morning line and will be my win bet in the Rebel ... unless both Swale runners flop on Saturday.
My other value play is Rancho Santa Fe, who comes back in the Rebel after finishing fourth in the Southwest Stakes, which Silent Tactic won going away. Three other horses bunched up behind him, and Rancho Santa Fe settled for fourth, a head behind #10 Soldier N Diplomat, who also returns in the Rebel, and a nose behind Buetane. Unlike Soldier N Diplomat, who was tiring in the stretch of the Southwest and just held second, Rancho Santa Fe appeared to have plenty left at the finish, and the Tapit colt is also bred to relish longer distances. This 12-1 morning-line shot from Brad Cox’s stable also gets the services of 2025 earnings leader Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle as Flavien Prat rides Litmus Test.
As for Strategic Risk, I’m expecting him to rebound from a puzzling no-show effort in the Southwest Stakes and at least come somewhat close to his standout performance in the Smarty Jones Stakes, with juicy 12-1 morning-line odds to boot. Silent Tactic was something to behold in the Southwest, closing into a moderate pace and sweeping past the field in the stretch to score by 3 ¼ lengths. I expect his 9-2 morning-line odds to drop by post time, but his recent win was so impressive I have to include him in my Rebel wagers.
I’ll bet the Rebel this way, with a $30 budget and using ABR’s Gambling Calculator:
$12 win on #3 Class President
What to say at the betting window:
Oaklawn Park, Race 11, $12 win #3
$1 exacta: #3 Class President and #8 Rancho Santa Fe with #3 Class President, #6 Strategic Risk, #7 Silent Tactic, and #8 Rancho Santa Fe ($6)
What to say at the betting window:
Oaklawn Park, Race 11, $1 exacta, #3 and #8 with #3, #6, #7, and #8
50-cent trifecta box: #3 Class President, #6 Strategic Risk, #7 Silent Tactic, and #8 Rancho Santa Fe ($12)
What to say at the betting window:
Oaklawn Park, Race 11, 50-cent trifecta box, #3, #6, #7, and #8
