The $7 million, Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Saturday at Del Mar could be one of the most competitive Classics in history, even after the scratch of Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets winner and morning-line favorite Sovereignty.
Eight of the nine runners in the Classic field are Grade 1 winners with combined total earnings of over $36.6 million. This year’s Classic is also a rematch of Sierra Leone, Fierceness and Forever Young who finished first, second and third, respectively, in last year’s race. Following his runner-up finish in the 2024 Classic, Fierceness took a five-month layoff and came back to set a Churchill Downs track record for racing 1 1/16 miles on dirt in a Grade 2 stakes, and most recently, the City of Light colt dominated the Grade 1 Pacific Classic Stakes by 3 ¼ lengths, held at the mile and a quarter distance and on the same track as Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. Baeza, a half-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch, is fresh off a 2 ¼ win in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby where he earned a career-best 116 Equibase Speed Figure. Nevada Beach recently won the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita Park for trainer Bob Baffert and with Hall of Famer Mike Smith aboard, who retains the mount Saturday. Contrary Thinking was entered by trainer Chad Brown to serve as a pacesetter in the Classic. He finished last of nine, defeated by 68 lengths, in the Whitney Stakes and more recently sixth of eight in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (moved up a spot due to a disqualification).
Forever Young is the lone Classic starter that was not bred in North America. Following his third-place finish in last year’s Classic, the Japanese-bred colt went on to win two stakes races in his home country along with a win in the lucrative Saudi Cup and a third in the Group 1 Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline. Reigning race winner Sierra Leone is back to try and become the first horse since Tiznow in 2001 to capture back-to-back Classics. The 4-year-old colt by Gun Runner trained by Chad Brown has never finished out of the money in 13 career starts, 12 of them coming in graded stakes races. Mindframe had three straight wins to start his 4-year-old campaign and will be making his first start since unseating jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. at the beginning of the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga last time out. Jose Ortiz will be aboard Grade 1 Preakness Stakes winner Journalism for the first time Saturday; the colt, who also won the NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes last summer, enters off of a second-place finish in the Pacific Classic. Antiquarian, who like Fierceness and Mindframe is trained by Todd Pletcher, rounds out the field. He edged clear to win the Jockey Club Gold Cup by 1 ½ lengths in his previous start, earning a career best 113 Equibase Speed Figure. Notably, the Preservationist colt has two wins and two seconds from four starts in his 4-year-old campaign.
Analysis and Main Contenders:
Mindframe and Baeza are the two most lightly raced horses in the field, both just making their ninth career start; however Mindframe is a 4-year-old and of course Baeza is a 3-year-old. Mindframe started his career in March of 2024 and won his first two races by a combined margin of a staggering 21 ¼ lengths for Todd Pletcher. After a stellar start to his racing career, the Constitution colt went on to run second in both the Belmont Stakes and Haskell Stakes to Dornoch before taking a nearly eight-month layoff. Resurfacing in Florida this past March, Mindframe won the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes by Domestic Product by 1 ¼ lengths. On Kentucky Derby day and racing over a sloppy Churchill Downs track, Mindframe cut back to seven furlongs in distance in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes Presented by Ford and ran a brilliant race, rallying late to win by a neck in a thrilling four-horse finish over Nysos, Banishing, and Book’em Danno, all of which trained on to win graded stakes wins this year. Following that win, Mindframe returned to the route distance back at Churchill Downs and ran a career-best – and best in the BC Classic field – 118 Equibase Speed Figure when winning the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes by a length over reigning Classic champion Sierra Leone (Sierra Leone won the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes in his next start). As noted above, in his final Breeders’ Cup prep, Mindframe unseated Irad Ortiz Jr. soon after the start. If you draw a line through the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Mindframe has been nearly perfect in his entire career, earning triple-digit Equibase Speed Figures in all seven of his starts that he finished. He has been working well at Saratoga since the Gold Cup and this colt is able to win from off the pace, as a presser, or as a frontrunner, so whatever situation this Classic might throw at him, Mindframe should be well prepared. Even if Sovereignty did not scratch, Mindframe is ranked first in late pace rating and poises a major threat to all contenders. Even at revised 6-1 morning-line odds, he offers major value that might be overlooked with the presence of Sierra Leone, Fierceness and Forever Young.
The consistency of Journalism cannot be ignored in this Classic. This 3-year-old Curlin colt has never finished out of the top three from 10 career starts and has been the second-best to Sovereignty throughout the Triple Crown series. Following three straight graded stakes victories including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, Journalism finished second to Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby, won the Preakness Stakes without the presence of Sovereignty, and then finished second yet again to Sovereignty in the Belmont Stakes. After a grueling Triple Crown sequence, Journalism came right back to win the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park in July, showing his grit and determination. In his most recent race, he was bested by Fierceness in the Pacific Classic; however, he was bumped at the start and still finished strong. Historically over the past year, horses in graded stakes races who finished second in a Grade 1 in their most previous start have come back to win at 29% from 94 starts. Dating back to the Santa Anita Derby, Journalism has been on a 1-2 finishing pattern every start and if he follows suit Saturday, he could easily find the winner’s circle. This colt has consistently run incredibly well against very tough company, and he’s been training very well at Del Mar over this past week. Journalism’s morning-line odds have been changed to 5-1, still great value on a colt that has proven himself time and time again.
Sierra Leone is another horse with incredible consistency, never finishing out of the top three in 13 career starts. This Gun Runner colt was able to put it all together in last year’s Classic, rallying five-wide to win by 1 ½ lengths over Fierceness and Forever Young. Although he began the season with a third-place finish in the Grade 2 New Orleans Classic Stakes Presented by Relyne GI by Hagyard at Fair Grounds, he rebounded strongly to check in second behind Mindframe in the Stephen Foster while earning a career-best 117 Equibase Speed Figure. Sierra Leone followed that effort with a decisive victory in the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga, earning a 110 Equibase Figure. In the colt’s final prep, he finished second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup to Classic contender Antiquarian; however, the same 1-2 finishing pattern angle that applies to Journalism also applies to Sierra Leone. Flavien Prat, arguably one of the best jockeys in North America in the last few years, retains the mount on Sierra Leone for the ninth consecutive time. With his proven stamina, tactical patience, and unwavering form, Sierra Leone looms as a major threat to repeat as Classic champion, and even in defeat, he’s certain to deliver another strong, hard-fought performance.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures in similar races, is Fierceness (117), Baeza (116), Nevada Beach (108), Contrary Thinking (96), Forever Young (113), Antiquarian (113).
Win Contenders in Preference Order:
Mindframe
Journalism
Sierra Leone
