The Breeders’ Cup World Championships is the ultimate handicapping puzzle for horseplayers, and it’s especially appealing to those who adhere to the maxim of “bet a little to win a lot.”

The 14-race slate of Breeders’ Cup races brings together great horses from all regions in the U.S. as well as from overseas, which means that year after year, top-class runners with full résumés go off at odds far higher than they would in any other setting.

Finding and playing longshots in the Breeders’ Cup can become even more lucrative if you are able to also select – and toss from your betting slips – several horses that are underlays; that is, ones that are receiving more support from bettors than they should and thus carrying lower odds (check out ABR’s primer on gambling terms for more info). Zigging while everyone else zags is the essence of astute betting in any environment, and in horse racing it can lead to astronomical payouts.

So, which morning-line favorites in the 2025 Breeders’ Cup are vulnerable to lose at short odds? Four candidates are listed below from the 42^nd renewal of the World Championships and the fourth time (and second in a row) the event is held “where the turf meets the surf” – sensational Del Mar.

1.Explora (5-2, NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies): In this article, I lay out a betting strategy for what I feel is a wide-open race where any one the nine entrants winning would not be a surprise. It follows, then, that I’ll take a stand against a filly that, while solid when recently winning the Oak Leaf Stakes Presented by Oak Tree Racing Association, does not tower above her opponents in terms of speed figures. I like longshot Super Corredora (15-1 on the morning-line) to pull the upset here entering off of a visually appealing maiden win going two turns at Santa Anita Park.

Sweet Azteca (Eclipse Sportswire)

2. Sweet Azteca (2-1, PNC Bank Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint): She’s won six out of her last seven starts going back to February 2024 and is 2-for-2 lifetime at Del Mar. But 2-1 odds on Sweet Azteca is way too low in a race where there’s plenty of other speed entered and considering she’s defeated a total of eight opponents in his two starts this year. Resorts World Casino Ballerina Stakes winner Hope Road is my top selection at 4-1 odds as she gets Jose Ortiz back in the saddle after he piloted her to that Grade 1 triumph at Saratoga. Hope Road also sports a Del Mar lifetime record of 3-2-0 in six starts.

3. Seismic Beauty (9-5, Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff): This talented Bob Baffert-trained filly is a clear morning-line favorite based on three consecutive pacesetting, open-length wins in California including the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes Presented by Oak Tree Racing Association last out on Del Mar’s track. Her speed figures from that race stand out against this field. However, in that race she defeated a top-class opponent in runner-up Kopion who is nevertheless a sprinter, and in the Distaff Seismic Beauty will face two or three opponents (Juddmonte Spinster Stakes winner Gin Gin and possibly Coaching Club American Oaks winner Scottish Lassie and Japanese-based Distaff returnee Alice Verite) should keep her company early on. Cotillion Stakes winner Clicquot can pull the upset here at 10-1 odds – she’s a 3-year-old filly with plenty of upside who’s bred to thrive racing 1 1/8 miles.

Notable Speech (Eclipse Sportswire)

4. Notable Speech (5-2, FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented by PDJF): It’s dangerous to take a stand against a Breeders’ Cup turf runner who’s got trainer Charlie Appleby and jockey William Buick in their corner. But this edition of the FanDuel Mile is absolutely loaded and it’s important to note that Notable Speech went winless in four European starts between his third-place effort in this race a year ago and his easy win in the Rogers Woodbine Mile Stakes on Sept. 13. There are actually a pair of California turf runners that could get a piece of this race in last year’s runner-up Johannes (8-1) and Formidable Man (10-1) who is 6-for-6 at Del Mar. But my top choice will come from among this trio: Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes winner Rhetorical (5-1), fourth-place Jonquil (10-1), or France-based invader Sahlan (6-1).