Live racing at Santa Anita Park returns this week with a blockbuster Saturday of racing, featuring five graded stakes races headlined by the Goodwood Stakes (formerly known as the Awesome Again Stakes and California Crown Stakes Presented by SirDavis Whisky). The Goodwood Stakes is a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Nov. 1 at Del Mar.
The 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic is shaping up to be something truly special, and the winner of the Goodwood will only add to the excitement. Gaming, one of three entrants trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, will vie to give the trainer a record ninth Goodwood victory and comes in off a third-place finish by 14 ½ lengths to stablemate Citizen Bull in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar at the end of August. Ultimate Gamble has posted three consecutive triple-digit Equibase Speed Figures (ESF) in his races. The 5-year-old is fresh coming out of his toughest test yet, where he finished third behind Fierceness and Journalism in the Pacific Classic Stakes at Del Mar. Ultimate Gamble boasts solid 8-1 morning-line odds for the Mark Glatt barn. Privman has not run out of the exacta in all five career starts for Baffert. In July, he broke his maiden by 2 ¾ lengths at Del Mar in his fourth career start, earning a career-best 112 ESF. Notably, Privman posted back-to-back bullet workouts over Santa Anita’s dirt track on Sept. 13 and 20. First Mission is Goodwood’s 8-5 morning line favorite shipping in from Kentucky for the Brad Cox stable. With over $2.2 million in earnings and boasting three graded stakes victories, First Mission tops all entries in here by average class rating (114). Nevada Beach is the most lightly raced horse in the field and rounds out the trio of Bob Baffert colts. He comes in off a dominating 4 ¼ length victory in the Los Alamitos Derby last time out and gets a jockey change to Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith. Express Train adds very intriguing value with morning-line odds of 20-1 for the John Shirreffs barn. At the age of 8, the son of Union Rags earned a career-best 111 ESF last time out when he finished third by just a length in the Pat O’Brien Stakes at Del Mar in July. 2024 Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Full Serrano rounds out the Goodwood field for trainer John Sadler. Jockey Juan Hernandez has seemingly chosen his Breeders’ Cup mount, hopping off both Privman and Nevada Beach to ride Full Serrano on Saturday.
Analysis and Main Contenders:
Full Serrano started his career in his native Argentina winning on both the dirt and turf before coming to the U.S. last August. In his North American debut after being privately purchased by Hronis Racing, Full Serrano drew clear to win by 2 ¼ lengths in an allowance optional claiming going a mile on the dirt at Del Mar. Three weeks later, he narrowly missed winning the Pacific Classic by a half-length to Mixto after setting a blistering pace on the front. The son of Full Mast stayed “where the turf meets the surf” at Del Mar and kicked clear to win the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile by 1 ½ lengths three weeks later, earning a career-best 117 ESF that’s also the best in this field. Full Serrano was sidelined for 10 months following his Dirt Mile win and resurfaced on Sept. 1 at Del Mar, dominating an allowance optional claiming race by 7 ¼ lengths under Juan Hernandez, who is winning at a tremendous 37% in all dirt routes over the past year and will retain the mount in the Goodwood. Full Serrano earned his third consecutive triple-digit ESF for his win last time out, posting a 115 when he completed one mile on dirt in a 1:35.11, a faster time than he set in the Breeders’ Cup (1:35.48). His 115 is the highest last-out ESF of any horse in the Goodwood, and over the past year horses in graded stakes races on the dirt with the highest last-out ESF are winning at a 30% clip from 307 total starts with a positive 6% return on investment. Full Serrano looks poised for a big effort as he makes his second start off a 10-month layoff and returns on just three weeks’ rest, a pattern that’s brought out his best. A repeat of his last two North American performances could easily land him in the winner’s circle on Saturday.
Express Train, an absolute war horse, is still churning out solid performances in top-tier graded stakes races at the age of 8. He earned a career-best 111 ESF last time out in the 27th start of his life, finishing third by just a length to Dr. Venkman and Stronghold in the Pat O’Brien Stakes going seven furlongs on the dirt, closing well on a fast track while fighting a turnback in distance. Express Train is back at Santa Anita where he has posted an incredible 13-for-16 record of in-the-money finishes with four wins including the 2022 Santa Anita Handicap Presented by Yaamava’ Resort & Casino, having also finished second twice in his three overall starts in that race. He stretches back out to his preferred 1 1/8-mile distance where he has a record of 6-for-8 in-the-money and retains Hector Berrios in the saddle for the Goodwood. Berrios and trainer John Shirreffs are fresh off a Pennsylvania Derby win earned with Baeza last weekend, and seemingly Berrios gets the best efforts out of Express Train as he does with Baeza. Another thing to add: even with the presence of Full Serrano and First Mission, Express Train is ranked first in late pace rating with a massive 126. Post-time odds of 20-1 would be a gift as this horse has proven time and time again that he can finish in-the-money against some of the most competitive horses in North America.
First Mission will be making his 11th consecutive graded stakes start on Saturday. The Godolphin homebred is having a tremendous 5-year-old campaign, finishing in the money in every start in 2025 including a two-length win in the Oaklawn Handicap over Banishing and Skippylongstocking as well as a third-place finish in the Stephen Foster Stakes behind Mindframe and Sierra Leone. First Mission earned consecutive 115 ESFs for those performances. Last time out, he finished second by three-quarters of a length behind Surface to Air in the Philip H. Iselin Stakes at Monmouth Park in mid-August. This loss might deter some bettors, especially considering First Mission’s 8-5 morning-line odds for the Goodwood; however, Surface to Air is a legit horse who also beat heavy favorite Just a Touch in the Monmouth Cup Stakes prior to the Iselin. First Mission is undoubtedly talented, leading the Goodwood field in earnings with more than $2.2 million. However, this will be a tougher test than his most recent start, and history suggests he hasn’t always handled shipping well, particularly at a track where he has no recorded workouts.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures in similar races, is Gaming (105), Ultimate Gamble (112), Privman (112) and Nevada Beach (102).
Win Contenders in Preference Order:
Full Serrano
Express Train
First Mission
