In 2023, two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox sent a colt named Hit Show to contest the $250,000, Grade 3 Withers Stakes, a 1 1/8-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier at Aqueduct. Hit Show had run three times, winning his debut at Keeneland before finishing fourth and first in allowance-optional claiming races at Churchill Downs and Oaklawn Park. In the Withers, Hit Show rallied to win by 5 1/2 lengths over Arctic Arrogance, runner-up in Aqueduct’s Jerome Stakes one month prior.
Will a largely identical script unfold in the 2024 renewal of the Withers? A nine-horse field will vie for the 42 Kentucky Derby qualification points awarded on a 20-10-6-4-2 basis to the top five finishers, and we anticipate #3 Lightline will play the role of Hit Show while #4 El Grande O fills in for Arctic Arrogance.
The form of Lightline is quite similar to that of Hit Show. The son of 2018 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner City of Light debuted for Brad Cox in a one-mile maiden special weight at Horseshoe Indianapolis, which he dominated by 13 3/4 lengths. Then Lightline finished second in a $100,000 allowance-optional claimer at Keeneland and second again in an $80,000 allowance-optional claimer at Oaklawn Park.
The winners of those allowance races were quality horses. At Keeneland, first place went to Stretch Ride, who returned to finish third in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on the Road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby. At Oaklawn, the winner was Carbone, an undefeated colt who ranks among the favorites to win Saturday’s $800,000, Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn.
Even though the Withers is a Grade 3 stakes, it doesn’t look any tougher on paper than those Keeneland and Oaklawn allowance races. Lightline’s main rival is El Grande O, an accomplished speedster who has conquered New York-bred rivals in the Bertram F. Bongard and Sleepy Hollow Stakes at Aqueduct.
But while El Grande O is fast and accomplished, it’s possible the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Withers will be a stumbling block. El Grande O has yet to run farther than one mile or compete in a race around two turns, which he’ll have to do in the Withers. Furthermore, El Grande O has lost ground through the final eighth of a mile in all three of his one-mile races, including when weakening to finish second in the Jan. 6 Jerome Stakes on the Kentucky Derby trail.
El Grande O’s talent may be sufficient to land him a top-three finish in the Withers, even if he struggles at the longer distance. But holding off Lightline in the stretch may prove difficult. It’s worth noting Lightline is a half-brother to Reigning Spirit, who finished second by a head in the 1 1/2-mile, Grade 3 Louisville Stakes. Stretching out to 1 1/8 miles should suit Lightline just fine.
Therefore, we recommend building wagering strategies around Lightline, betting him to win and playing him on top of an exacta using El Grande O, #1 Speed Runner, and #7 Mission Beach for second place.
Speed Runner is the only horse in the Withers field with a victory racing 1 1/8 miles under his belt. The chestnut colt by 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner debuted with a third-place finish dashing seven-eighths of a mile at Aqueduct, then stretched out to 1 1/8 miles and won a maiden special weight race by a neck. Speed Runner displayed tactical speed that day and figures to secure a forward position in the Withers, giving his evident stamina a chance to shine down the homestretch.
As for Mission Beach, he showed flashes of ability last summer, winning his debut at Del Mar over future Runhappy Del Mar Futurity third-place finisher Next Level. He followed up with a respectable fifth-place finish in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga, beaten by five lengths after dueling for the lead for most of the race.
Mission Beach completely misfired in his third start, finishing last out of four in the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar, but he bounced back nicely in a $62,500 allowance-optional claimer sprinting at Laurel Park, sweeping from off the pace to score by 1 3/4 lengths. As a son of two-time Horse of the Year and renowned stallion Curlin, Mission Beach has the pedigree to relish racing 1 1/8 miles, so stretching out in distance may trigger a career-best performance.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 to win on #3 Lightline
What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, Race 9, $10 to win on 3
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$15 to win on #3 Lightline
What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, Race 9, $15 to win on 3
$5 exacta: 3 with 1,4,7 ($15)
What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, Race 9, $5 exacta 3 with 1,4,7
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
Superfecta
8-4-3-2
8-4-3-2
$271
Grand Slam
1/2/7-1/2/5/7-3/5/7-8
1/2/7-1/2/5/7-3/5/7-8
$52
Superfecta
8-4-3-2
8-4-3-2
$271
Grand Slam
1/2/7-1/2/5/7-3/5/7-8
1/2/7-1/2/5/7-3/5/7-8
$52
