The $750,000, Grade 2 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino at Aqueduct isn’t the most prestigious of the three Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve qualifiers taking place around the country this Saturday – both the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby carry higher status. But the Wood Memorial is shaping up as the best betting race.
A large field of 13 has entered the Wood Memorial, and splitting the contenders in the 1 1/8-mile contest isn’t easy. You can make a case for many of them to visit the winner’s circle, so anyone who assembles a winning bet is going to catch a nice payoff.
We’re going to focus our support on three horses, beginning with #9 Tuscan Sky, an undefeated son of champion and 2019 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso. Tuscan Sky has the pedigree to improve with maturity, which is a scary thought for his rivals since this colt has already shown a lot of talent.
Under the care of Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, Tuscan Sky debuted on Jan. 13 in a maiden special weight sprinting three-quarters of a mile at Aqueduct. Over a muddy track, Tuscan Sky pressed the early pace, dropped 3 ½ lengths off the lead with a quarter-mile remaining, and then re-rallied impressively to dominate by 5 ¼ lengths.
Tuscan Sky was even more impressive when stretching out for a 1 1/16-mile, $100,000 allowance optional claiming race on Feb. 17 at Fair Grounds. After settling in second place behind odds-on favorite Nash (who had previously placed in the Gun Runner Stakes and Lecomte Stakes), Tuscan Sky wore down the leader and edged away over a sloppy track to win by two lengths, earning a strong 95 Beyer Speed Figure and an equally compelling 97 Brisnet Speed rating.
Tuscan Sky’s performance was flattered when Nash returned to dominate the Hot Springs Stakes in his next start. Since Tuscan Sky has already defeated a stakes-caliber rival, stepping up in class for the Wood Memorial shouldn’t be a major obstacle. Pletcher has won the Wood Memorial seven times since 2010, and Tuscan Sky enters off a bullet half-mile workout at Palm Beach Downs last Saturday, so there’s a lot to like about his chances.
The only question mark for Tuscan Sky is the fact he’s yet to race over a fast track, which – if weather forecasts turn out to be accurate – is what he’ll encounter at Aqueduct this Saturday. In case Tuscan Sky fails to run quite as fast over dry footing, we’ll refrain from playing him exclusively on top and also use him for second place underneath #1 Resilience and #8 Elysian Meadows, two Road to the Kentucky Derby participants conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.
Resilience went winless against tough competition at age 2, but he’s moved forward nicely as a 3-year-old. On New Year’s Day, he rallied to win a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park by 4 ¼ lengths. Then on Feb. 17, he finished fourth against a strong field in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, beaten only by Sierra Leone (the favorite to win the Blue Grass Stakes), Track Phantom (previously victorious in the Lecomte Stakes), and Catching Freedom (next-out winner of the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby).
Resilience figures to find the competition a bit easier in the Wood Memorial. He’s trained strongly and is adding blinkers (a 21% winning move for Mott per Brisnet statistics), so Resilience has every chance to vie for victory under Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez.
Elysian Meadows likewise brings promising form to the table. He started twice in sprints for New York-bred runners at Aqueduct last year and won them both. Then he stepped up in class and distance for the 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs and finished fourth behind next-out Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby runner-up No More Time, 2023 Pilgrim Stakes winner Agate Road, and West Saratoga, winner of the Iroquois Stakes last year and recent runner-up in the Jeff Ruby Steaks.
Horses shipping in from Florida win the Wood Memorial more often than not, so Elysian Meadows has to be viewed as a dangerous contender under jockey Jose Lezcano, who has won with 24% of his mounts at Aqueduct since the start of the year.
We’ll also use #4 Deterministic on some tickets. Although he’s bred to shine running a bit shorter than 1 1/8 miles, Deterministic is two-for-two and won Aqueduct’s one-mile Gotham Stakes last month, so from a talent perspective he looks as good as any horse in the Wood Memorial field and has every chance to challenge for a top-three finish.
For bettors playing small budgets (say, $20), we recommend focusing on exacta tickets using Tuscan Sky, Resilience, and Elysian Meadows. Bettors with more capital to invest (perhaps $40) can add in trifecta tickets using Deterministic in the third position.
Wagering Strategy on a $20 Budget
$6 exacta: 9 with 1,8 ($12)
What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, 10th race, $6 exacta 9 with 1,8
$4 exacta: 1,8 with 9 ($8)
What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, 10th race, $4 exacta 1,8 with 9
Wagering Strategy on a $40 Budget
$8 exacta: 9 with 1,8 ($16)
What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, 10th race, $8 exacta 9 with 1,8
$6 exacta: 1,8 with 9 ($12)
What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, 10th race, $6 exacta 1,8 with 9
$1.50 trifecta: 9 with 1,8 with 1,4,8 ($6)
What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, 10th race, $1.50 trifecta 9 with 1,8 with 1,4,8
$1.50 trifecta: 1,8 with 9 with 1,4,8 ($6)
What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, 10th race, $1.50 trifecta 1,8 with 9 with 1,4,8
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
Consolation Pick 3
1-6-2
1-6-2
$68
Superfecta
1-11-5-3
1-11-5-3
$6,777
Trifecta
1-11-5
1-11-5
$2,296
Grand Slam
1/7/9-1/7/8-4/6/8-1
1/7/9-1/7/8-4/6/8-1
$73
Consolation Double
6-2
6-2
$13
Consolation Pick 3
1-6-2
1-6-2
$68
Superfecta
1-11-5-3
1-11-5-3
$6,777
Trifecta
1-11-5
1-11-5
$2,296
Grand Slam
1/7/9-1/7/8-4/6/8-1
1/7/9-1/7/8-4/6/8-1
$73
Consolation Double
6-2
6-2
$13
