No trainer has enjoyed more success in the $750,000 Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park than Bob Baffert. The Hall of Fame conditioner has won the historic 1 1/8-mile qualifier on the road to the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve with regularity since his first win with Cavonnier in 1996. Most recently he took top honors in 2019 with Roadster.
The Santa Anita Derby is the final leg of the Coast to Coast Pick 5 for Saturday, April 6. The sequence features Santa Anita Park, Race 3; Gulfstream Park, Race 8; Santa Anita Park, Race 7; Santa Anita Park, Race 9; and Santa Anita Park, Race 10. As its name implies, the Coast to Coast Pick 5 will be a pick 5 bet that will encompass a five-race sequence of pre-selected races from two of the top tracks running at this time of year – Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park. The Coast to Coast Pick 5 has a player friendly 15% takeout with a $1 minimum bet.
Baffert has launched a two-pronged assault on Saturday’s renewal of the Santa Anita Derby, entering #4 Imagination and #5 Wynstock. Both are proven graded stakes winners with strong chances to win on Saturday; the question is, which will come out ahead?
Imagination can be considered the “now” horse after battling to victory in last month’s Grade 2 DK Horse San Felipe Stakes, an important steppingstone to the Santa Anita Derby. Imagination ran into bumping trouble during the early stages of the San Felipe but recovered to engage in a prolonged front-end duel with stablemate Wine Me Up. The two runners battled gamely down the homestretch with Imagination coming out on top by a head.
Imagination had previously wired a one-mile maiden special weight race and finished second in a $100,000 allowance-optional claiming race at Santa Anita, failing by only a neck to win the latter race while pulling 10 1/2 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. He enters the Santa Anita Derby in strong form, but his last three Brisnet Speed ratings (92, 93, and 94) suggest he’s slower than Wynstock, at least when the latter brings his “A” game.
Wynstock failed to factor in his first two starts sprinting, but when he stretched out for a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita he led all the way to dominate by 7 1/2 lengths. This foreshadowed a determined victory in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity, in which he set the pace, lost the lead with an eighth of a mile remaining, and then battled back to win by half a length with a 99 Brisnet Speed rating.
The runner-up in the Los Alamitos Futurity was #3 Stronghold, who flattered Wynstock’s performance by returning to win the Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby with a 95 Brisnet Speed rating. Stronghold is another logical threat to win the Santa Anita Derby, although he’s shown a tendency to drift around down the homestretch of his races (doing so quite severely in the Sunland Park Derby, first to the outside and then to the inside). That could be problematic since he won’t have much margin for error while facing tough competition in the Santa Anita Derby.
So why isn’t Wynstock an obvious choice to win on Saturday? It’s because he ran poorly in his first start of 2024 to finish last out of 11 horses in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, but perhaps that misfire is forgivable. Wynstock broke a step slowly in the Southwest and wound up boxed-in behind the leaders over a muddy track. Wynstock seemed uncomfortable with his position and was never able to get out of traffic, even steadying at one point when he tried to advance between rivals. Eventually, Wynstock threw in the towel and retreated through the field.
In the Southwest, Wynstock broke from post four in an 11-horse field. In the Santa Anita Derby, he’ll start from post five in an eight-horse field, and two of the horses to his outside (#6 Tessuto and #7 Mc Vay) seem unlikely to challenge for the lead. In other words, Wynstock should have little trouble securing a favorable position racing up front and in the clear under Santa Anita’s leading jockey Juan Hernandez, who has won at a 37% rate teaming up with Baffert over the last two months per Brisnet statistics. A trip like this should help Wynstock bounce back to his best.
Throw in the fact Wynstock has trained up a storm since the Santa Anita Derby (most recently working half a mile from the Santa Anita starting gate in a blazing :46), and the chestnut colt looks ready to deliver victory. We’ll make him our top choice in the Santa Anita Derby at appealing 8-1 odds on the morning-line.
Bettors playing on small budgets can opt for a straightforward exacta using Wynstock on top of Imagination and Stronghold. But if you want to spend a little more and shoot for a bigger payoff, consider adding a trifecta with El Camino Real Derby runner-up #2 Tapalo thrown into the mix for third place. The El Camino Real Derby winner, Endlessly, returned to dominate the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$5 exacta: 5 with 3,4 ($10)
What to say at the betting window: Santa Anita, 10th race, $5 exacta 5 with 3,4
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$10 exacta: 5 with 3,4 ($20)
What to say at the betting window: Santa Anita, 10th race, $10 exacta 5 with 3,4
$2.50 trifecta: 5 with 3,4 with 2,3,4 ($10)
What to say at the betting window: Santa Anita, 10th race, $2.50 trifecta 5 with 3,4 with 2,3,4
Good luck and enjoy the Santa Anita Derby!
Pick 3
BIG3PICK3(1-10-3)
BIG3PICK3(1-10-3)
$227
Pick 5
CST2CSTPICK5(4-5/6/9-9-2/6-3)
CST2CSTPICK5(4-5/6/9-9-2/6-3)
$1,341
Superfecta
3-4-8-1
3-4-8-1
$40
Super High Five
3-4-8-1-2
3-4-8-1-2
$2,181
Pick 3
BIG3PICK3(1-10-3)
BIG3PICK3(1-10-3)
$227
Pick 5
CST2CSTPICK5(4-5/6/9-9-2/6-3)
CST2CSTPICK5(4-5/6/9-9-2/6-3)
$1,341
Superfecta
3-4-8-1
3-4-8-1
$40
Super High Five
3-4-8-1-2
3-4-8-1-2
$2,181
