The $1 million Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes at Parx Racing has risen to prominence in recent years thanks to its rich purse and perfect positioning six weeks out from the Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff. The 1 1/16-mile race serves as an opportunity for three-year-old fillies to compete against their own age group before facing older rivals in the Breeders’ Cup.
The Cotillion regularly draws a top-class field, but take note, it’s not uncommon for the most accomplished entrant to fall to defeat. The Cotillion is contested fairly late in the racing season, following a busy winter/spring focused on the Grade 1 Longines Kentucky Oaks and a spring/summer of prestigious prizes at Belmont Park and Saratoga. By the time you get to September, accomplished runners from earlier in the season can be vulnerable against talented up-and-comers in red-hot form, especially if the accomplished runners are hoping to leave something in the tank for the Breeders’ Cup.
Recent editions of the Cotillion vividly illustrate this point. In 2017, Kentucky Oaks winner Abel Tasman started as the 4-5 favorite, but was beaten by the improving It Tiz Well. In 2018, Kentucky Oaks winner Monomoy Girl crossed the finish line first in the Cotillion but was disqualified and placed second for interfering with the following year’s champion older dirt female Midnight Bisou. In 2019, the Cotillion featured Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress, champion two-year-old filly Jaywalk, and two-time Grade 1 winner Guarana, but all were beaten by longshot Street Band. Last year, Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath finished third behind runaway Grade 3 Charles Town Oaks winner, Society.
Will we see a similarly surprising outcome unfold in the 2023 Cotillion? It’s not out of the question. The morning line favorite is #3 Pretty Mischievous (2-1), a five-time stakes winner with three consecutive Grade 1 victories under her belt. In the Kentucky Oaks, she started as a 10-1 longshot, but overcame a wide trip from the far outside post position to prevail by a neck. She subsequently added the Grade 1 Acorn Stakes presented by Great Jones Distilling Co. at Belmont Park and the Grade 1 Test Stakes at Saratoga to her decorated resume.
Pretty Mischievous has been busy since last winter, and it’s fair to question the caliber of competition she’s defeated in recent starts. Kentucky Oaks runner-up Gambling Girl subsequently finished third in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks and fifth in the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes presented by Keeneland Sales. Kentucky Oaks third-place finisher The Alys Look returned to finish sixth in the Grade 2 Summertime Oaks. Dorth Vader, fifth in the Kentucky Oaks and second by a head in the Acorn, came back to finish fourth in the Test. Test runner-up Clearly Unhinged had previously finished fourth in her only other graded stakes appearance, the Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks. Pretty Mischievous actually wasn’t even going to win the Test until fate stepped in when leading Maple Leaf Mel fell near the wire.
There’s no knocking the overall accomplishments of Pretty Mischievous, who is well on her way to being voted champion three-year-old filly of 2023, but recent history suggests that a Kentucky Oaks winner coming toward the end of a busy season isn’t the best bet in the Cotillion, and this — coupled with the questionable form of the fillies Pretty Mischievous has beaten — points to the potential for an upset.
So, who can defeat Pretty Mischievous? Some bettors might opt for Grade 1 Central Bank Ashland Stakes winner #7 Defining Purpose (4-1), who bounced back from a subpar seventh-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks to win the Grade 3 Indiana Oaks and place third in the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes. Others might opt for #5 Occult (6-1), the Acorn third-place finisher who subsequently dropped in class to win the Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks by 10 1/4 lengths.
We’re going to go in a completely different direction and favor a filly who has yet to face Pretty Mischievous. That would be the California raider #2 Ceiling Crusher (5-1), who won four of her first five starts against California-bred rivals (including a pair of stakes by 15 lengths or more) before stepping up against non-state-restricted competition in the Grade 3 Torrey Pines Stakes at Del Mar three weeks ago.
Ceiling Crusher was strong in the Torrey Pines. After dashing to the lead from the outside post position in a field of eight, the Doug O’Neill trainee widened her advantage down the homestretch to prevail by six lengths over Sunland Park Oaks winner Flying Connection, the sixth-place finisher from the Kentucky Oaks. Finishing third was Desi Arnaz Stakes winner Justique, who has placed multiple times at the graded stakes level.
It’s worth noting, Ceiling Crusher has run as fast as Pretty Mischievous on the Brisnet Speed rating scale. Whereas the three highest numbers belonging to Pretty Mischievous are 99, 98, and 96, Ceiling Crusher boasts numbers of 99, 98, and 95. If the morning line odds hold up, the possibility of getting 5-1 odds on Ceiling Crusher instead of 2-1 odds on Pretty Mischievous is enticing.
Let’s bet the Cotillion accordingly. A win bet on Ceiling Crusher is the way to go, and if you’re feeling bold, you can spend a bit more money to pursue a higher-paying trifecta using Pretty Mischievous, Defining Purpose, Occult, and Saratoga allowance optional claiming winner #6 Just Katherine (12-1).
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 to win on #2 Ceiling Crusher
What to say at the betting window: Parx Racing, 12th race, $10 to win on 2
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$15 to win on #2 Ceiling Crusher
What to say at the betting window: Parx Racing, 12th race, $15 to win on 2
$3 trifecta: 2 with 3 with 5,6,7 ($9)
What to say at the betting window: Parx Racing, 12th race, $3 trifecta 2 with 3 with 5,6,7
$2 trifecta: 2 with 5,6,7 with 3 ($6)
What to say at the betting window: Parx Racing, 12th race, $2 trifecta 2 with 5,6,7 with 3
Good luck and enjoy the race!
Superfecta
2-3-5-4
2-3-5-4
$23
Superfecta
2-3-5-4
2-3-5-4
$23
.JPG?itok=7LZS2A8i&c=9a7e1e829719c80cd283726d7625f19c "Cotillion Stakes, Parx Racing, Pretty Mischievous, Ceiling Crusher")
