Live Longshots and Value Bets for the 2022 Breeders’ Cup

Pipeline has a shot to win the Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at a nice price Saturday at Keeneland. (Eclipse Sportswire)

There’s simply no sporting event that offers the kind of wagering opportunities that you can find at the Breeders’ Cup — not even the Super Bowl. It’s common for a mere $2 wager in the Breeders’ Cup to turn into a payout in the tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of dollars. What kind of wild prop-filled parlay would you have to hit to cash that kind of ticket on a football game?

The key element to any big score on Breeders’ Cup weekend is finding a longshot. Before cashing with them, you first have to identify horses who are coming into a big effort at odds that are going to be inflated because each race features the best horses from around the globe. These longshots don’t always have to win for you to make bank. Utilizing an overlooked horse in your exacta or trifecta wagers can result in a huge score — as could betting them to place or show.

Here are some horses who can shake things up at big prices this weekend.


weekend TV schedule

Wednesday, Nov. 2: 1-6 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Thursday, Nov. 3:
1-6 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Friday, Nov. 4:
11:30 a.m.-5:30 p.m. on FS2; 2-6 p.m. on USA Network; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Saturday, Nov. 5:
10:30 a.m.-5:30 p.m. on FS2; 1-3:30 p.m. on USA Network; 3:30-6 p.m. on NBC; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Sunday, Nov. 6:
12-6 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (3 p.m. ET)

#6 Persian Force (Morning Line Odds: 15-1)

This horse ships in from Europe where he won the Group 1 Close Brothers July Stakes at Newmarket earlier this year. He’s lost three races since then and for that reason he’ll most likely be overlooked by most bettors — but not us! If you take a closer look at the competition he’s been running with in Europe, you’ll see he finished behind horses named Blackbeard and Little Big Bear. Those are two horses that would’ve likely been well supported in the wagering for this race had they not both been sidelined by injury (and retired, in Blackbeard’s case).

In watching replays of his races, Persian Force seems to do better with a target in front of him. Given the abundance of speed runners signed on for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (including deserving favorite Love Reigns), Persian Force should benefit from sitting behind the horses in front of him battling amongst themselves. Finally, Persian Force should also gain a bit of an edge over firm ground (stay away, rain) and the slight cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs.

NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (3:40 p.m. ET)

#4 Sabra Tuff: (Morning Line Odds (30-1)

This is another horse that I would’ve never come up with had I not gone back and thoroughly watched replays of her races. She has finished fifth in consecutive starts and hasn’t won since her first career race back in June. In the Darley Alcibiades Stakes, she broke from post position 13 and basically had to slow down right after the break just to make a left-hand turn to get to the rail (so as not to get caught out wide). She ended up taking so much kick back and was left with way too much to do late. Yet, she still rallied pretty nicely to pass more than half the runners in the field.

She also ran another deceptively strong race in the Adirondack Stakes and nearly finished second there. She did finish second to Wonder Wheel (one of the favorites in this race) in the Debutante Stakes in July. She again produced her signature late run in that race. Ultimately, I’m envisioning a good amount of early pace developing in this race and I’m hoping that with a better post here Sabra Tuff can make a late rally that sees her hit the board at a big price. I’ll be playing her in exacta combinations with #5 Wonder Wheel and #10 Chocolate Gelato.


Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (11:50 a.m. ET)

Chain of Love (Eclipse Sportswire)

#6 Chain of Love: (Morning Line Odds: 20-1)

If there’s any trend here it’s that I’m gravitating toward horses that I think could rally (and at least hit the board) in races that seem loaded with early speed. The Filly & Mare Sprint is no different as it features speedsters like Echo Zulu, Hot Peppers, Slammed, and Lady Rocket. One horse who I think could really benefit from all of that speed burning itself out is Chain of Love.

She comes off a win in a stakes race going this distance on a muddy track in Japan. But it’s really her races where she didn’t win that are most impressive to me. When finishing third in the Saudia Riyadh Dirt Sprint earlier in the year, she traveled pretty wide and still kicked on pretty impressively late to finish ahead of a number of classy horses. In the Dubai Golden Shaheen Sponsored By Atlantis Dubai, she was almost off the screen turning for home and again made an impressive wide rally to finish within a length of second place there. I’ll be using her on tickets along with #8 Goodnight Olive (a winner of five straight races) and the 2021 winner of this race #4 Ce Ce.

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (12:29 p.m. ET)

#13 Cazadero: (Morning Line Odds: 20-1)

You guessed it… another closer who’ll be flying late a big price. This one might be a little easier to see on paper if you’re looking through Cazadero’s past performances. This is a horse who ran some nice races last year on the dirt in allowance company but it wasn’t until he was switched over to the grass (and to trainer Brendan Walsh) that Cazadero really started to come into his own. In his first ever turf start in August, he finished third but showed an eye-opening turn-of-foot when rallying wide from way off the pace.

In the Nearctic Stakes last month, Cazadero put it all together. There wasn’t a whole lot of early pace, and so it was no surprise that turning for home two of the horses that had been up front (Bound for Nowhere and Silent Poet) kicked away from the field. No other horse so much closed within two lengths of those horses, but Cazadero rolled past both of them like they were standing still. My only concern with him is that 5 ½ furlongs might not be enough ground for him. I’ll use him on tickets with #8 Golden Pal and two other longshots: #3 Emaraaty Ana and #7 Arrest Me Red.

Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (1:10 p.m. ET)

#3 Pipeline: (Morning Line Odds: 8-1)

It’s only right that I pick at least one speed horse after going with a bunch of closers up until this point. Pipeline is a horse who runs his heart out every single time. Never was that more on display than in the Forego Stakes when he stuck with superstar Jackie’s Warrior for nearly every step of a blistering early pace. Surely, had Jackie’s Warrior not been in the race, Pipeline could’ve established a more comfortable lead of his own and would’ve held off eventual winner Cody’s Wish.

That being said, there’s no Jackie’s Warrior — or any other horse remotely as fast or as talented as him — in the Dirt Mile. There are two other horses with the potential to flash speed directly drawn inside of Pipeline: Slow Down Andy and Simplification. That draw gives Pipeline a tactical edge, assuming he gets away from the gate cleanly. I do think he’s the fastest horse in this race and will very likely clear to the lead. This horse is a legitimate win contender and I’ll be playing him with #6 Laurel River and #9 Cyberknife.

Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (4:40 p.m. ET)

#10 Red Knight (Morning Line Odds: 20-1)

Let’s be clear about one thing: European horses dominate this race. Only three U.S.-based horses have won the Breeders’ Cup Turf in the last 14 years. So, find you a European win candidate that you love (it’s #4 Broome for me). That said, it isn’t out of the question for an American runner to hit the board in this race at a big price and the horse that I’ve got my eyes on this year is Red Knight. He is proven at a mile and a half — he’s won four times and hit the board in seven of 11 starts at the distance — and he comes out of a race in which he had excuses when finishing eighth (steadied and lost ground while rallying widest of all). He also has a win on this turf course and gets a major jockey upgrade to Luis Saez.​

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