This year’s edition of the $1 million Southwest Stakes Feb. 6 at Oaklawn Park drew a highly competitive field of 3-year-olds, with 13 horses expected to start following the scratch of morning-line favorite Litmus Test. A total of 42 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are on the line, distributed to the top five finishers on a 20-10-6-4-2 point scale. Since 1991, the Southwest has produced three Kentucky Derby winners. Lil E. Tee finished third in 1992 before going on to upset the Derby at odds of 16.80-1, while Smarty Jones in 2004 and most recently Mystik Dan in 2024 completed the Southwest/Derby double. This year’s 1 1/16-mile renewal shapes up as a compelling betting race and offers an early glimpse into the first Saturday in May with fewer than 100 days remaining until the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby.
Here’s a look at the field from the inside (rail) post position out:
Reclamation drew the inside post position and will be making his third start at Oaklawn Park. He’s locally based for trainer Christopher Davis and comes off of a four-length win in a maiden race. D’code is also a maiden winner and he’ll be making his second career start after his dominating effort in his career debut, where he won by 8 ¼ lengths at Oaklawn and earned a 107 Equibase Speed Figure, best in this field. The son of Speightstown is trained by Ray Ashford Jr. and will have a jockey switch Friday to Luis Saez. Buetane was unable to make the trip to Gulfstream Park for the Holy Bull Stakes last weekend due to weather and will be making his first start since a runner-up finish in the San Vicente Stakes Park at Santa Anita Park earlier in January. Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Southwest Stakes six times. Rancho Santa Fe, trained by Brad Cox, started his career a perfect 2-for-2 on the Kentucky circuit and finished a distant fifth last time out in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn in early January. Circle Tap, one of two 30-1 morning-line entries for trainer Dallas Stewart, earned his first win in his fifth career start when trying a dirt route for the first time going 1 1/16-miles at Oaklawn at the end of December. Liberty National, a Maxfield colt, finished runner-up last time out in the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds on Dec. 20. The Kenny McPeek trainee scored his first win by 4 ¼ lengths at this 1 1/16-mile distance at Churchill in his second career start with Brian Hernandez Jr., who retains the mount Friday. Spirit of Royal, the second Dallas Stewart entrant, also scored his first career win when trying a dirt route for the first time, coming in career start no. 6 on Jan. 2 at Oaklawn.
Strategic Risk enters off back-to-back stakes wins at this 1 1/16-mile distance by a combined winning margin of 13 ½ lengths, including the Smarty Jones Stakes last time out for the stable of red-hot Mark Casse, who is 11-for-23 so far at the Oaklawn meet. Javier Castellano, who was aboard Strategic Risk’s last two starts, retains the mount. Bricklin continued his upward speed-figure progression in his lead-in race when drawing clear to win an allowance optional claiming race by 3 ¼ lengths at Oaklawn in early January. The Rodolphe Brisset trainee will have Jaime Torres riding for the first time. Mark Casse’s second entrant Silent Tactic finished runner-up to stablemate and fellow Southwest contender Strategic Risk last time out in the Gun Runner Stakes in his first start on the dirt after shipping in from Woodbine, where he competed on an all-weather track. Baytown Dreamer’s one win came on the turf at Ellis Park; however he finished third recently in the Smarty Jones for trainer Paul McEntee when switching back to dirt. Soldier N Diplomat enters off a game third-place finish in the 1 1 1/6-mile Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes behind Kentucky Derby prospect Further Ado back in November. Jose Ortiz will ride the colt for the first time since he piloted Soldier N Diplomat to a career-debut win at Saratoga last July. Sleepingonfreedom, Kenny McPeek’s second Southwest entrant, rounds out the field as he returns following a fourth-place finish in the Smarty Jones.
Analysis and Main Contenders:
Sporting 9-2 morning-line odds, Strategic Risk checks several boxes while offering solid value. The Noble Bird colt flashed significant ability in his career debut at Gulfstream Park back in June, dominating a state-bred maiden special weight race by 8 ¼ lengths. After posting a pair of disappointing results when moving up in class to graded company at Saratoga, Strategic Risk returned to Gulfstream Park in October and finished third in the seven-furlong Affirmed Stakes. A month and a half later, he put it all together facing fellow Florida-breds in the In Reality Stakes at Gulfstream, drawing clear to a nine-length victory in the 1 1/16-mile stakes while earning an 85 Equibase Speed Figure with Javier Castellano aboard for the first time. Strategic Risk continued his upward trajectory in his 3-year-old debut in the Smarty Jones Stakes, shipping to Oaklawn Park and stepping up from state-bred to open stakes company. He delivered a dominant 4 ½-length victory in the 1 1/16-mile race. That effort earned a career-best 90 Equibase Figure and was particularly impressive from a performance standpoint, as Strategic Risk lengthened his stride from 25.19 feet to 25.59 feet in the final eighth of a mile while covering the final furlong in 11.91 seconds. The Smarty Jones marked this colt’s fourth consecutive improving speed figure and also his third consecutive win by a margin greater than four lengths. As noted above, Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse has been red-hot this meet, winning at a 48% clip with an 83% in-the-money rate. Casse’s overall Oaklawn résumé is equally compelling, particularly in stakes races, where he has gone 5-for-13 over the last five years, finishing in the top three 85% of the time with a 43% return on investment. Another notable positive is the return of Javier Castellano, who has piloted Strategic Risk to back-to-back stakes victories by a combined 13 ½ lengths. The chemistry between the pair cannot be ignored. Overall, Strategic Risk is a steadily improving colt who has already proven he can handle open stakes company over Oaklawn’s dirt track. If he continues his current trajectory he could make a serious statement on Friday, and if he goes off around 9-2 odds, he’ll be a great price.
Soldier N Diplomat has the profile of a colt capable of outrunning his 12-1 morning-line odds. Purchased for $950,000 as a 2-year-old in training at the Ocala Breeders’ Sales auction last March, the Army Mule colt made his career debut four months later at Saratoga, winning a dirt sprint maiden special weight race while earning an 84 Equibase Speed Figure with Jose Ortiz aboard. Approximately one month later, Soldier N Diplomat was ambitiously placed in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga and finished a distant fourth behind eventual FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA winner Ted Noffey, with fellow Southwest entrant Buetane finishing second. He then shipped to Churchill Downs in late October and dominated a one-turn mile allowance optional claiming race in impressive fashion, winning by nine lengths and earning a career-best 94 Equibase figure. Although he finished third in his next start in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, that effort may have been the most encouraging performance of his career. Making his first start at two turns, Soldier N Diplomat took command at the top of the stretch and battled gamely through the final sixteenth, ultimately finishing second-best to Further Ado and standing out as the only horse to seriously challenge the runaway winner. That race provided valuable experience and a strong foundation heading into the Southwest. Another notable positive is his Friday reunion with Jose Ortiz. Ortiz and trainer Steve Asmussen have teamed up to win at a 28% clip in stakes races over the last three years, notching 22 wins from 78 starts and finishing in the top three 59% of the time. While Soldier N Diplomat does draw a challenging post for his running style, he has a legitimate opportunity to run a big race in his first start since the Kentucky Jockey Club and he offers strong value for a colt with his ability.
With the scratch of Litmus Test, D’code is likely to assume the role of post-time favorite. Although the Speightstown colt has just one career start, he has shown immense potential and must be considered in all wagers. In his debut back in mid-December on this track, D’code broke from a far outside post but was quickly hustled to the front in a six-furlong dirt sprint, setting solid fractions. He drew clear and proved clearly best, scoring authoritative 8 ¼-length victory. D’code’s performance earned him a towering 107 Equibase Speed Figure, one of the highest speed figures recorded by any 2-year-old in 2025. From a performance metrics standpoint, D’code was equally impressive late, maintaining an average stride length of 23.24 feet through the final half-furlong and to the finish line, suggesting he has the ability to stretch out to two turns in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest. In addition to owning the highest last-out Equibase figure in the field, he also ranks first in late pace with a 113.5 rating. Over the past year, stakes runners holding both the top late pace rating and the highest last-out Equibase Speed Figure have won at a 32% clip while finishing in top three 64% from 577 starts. D’code has also continued to impress in the mornings, posting several sharp workouts over Oaklawn’s dirt track since his debut, including a bullet five-furlong drill in 59.80 on Jan. 7. There is little doubt this colt has significant talent, but the combination of a sharp class rise and a lack of two-turn experience makes the Southwest a tough assignment.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures in similar races, is Reclamation (85), Buetane (96), Rancho Santa Fe (81), Circle Tap (83), Liberty National (86), Spirit of Royal (85), Bricklin (84), Silent Tactic (86), Baytown Dreamer (82), and Sleepingonfreedom (86).
Win Contenders in Preference Order:
Strategic Risk
Soldier N Diplomat
D’code
