If you analyze the recent history of the $500,000, Grade 2 Fasig-Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, you’ll identify several recurring trends suggesting Saturday’s renewal of the 1 1/8-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve qualifier will end in an upset.
Here are six historical factors to keep in mind when handicapping the 2026 Risen Star:
Favor horses with early speed
While it’s possible for late runners to win the Risen Star — Angel of Empire (2023) and Sierra Leone (2024) are recent examples — overall, horses with early speed perform best. Nine of the last 16 winners (56%) were racing first, second, or third after the opening half-mile, and three others were racing in the front half of the field. Seven of the last nine winners were in the top three after the first half-mile.
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Year
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Winner
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Position after first 1/2-mile
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1/2-mile, 3/4-mile time (track condition)
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2025
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Magnitude
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1st by 1.5 lengths (12 starters)
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:46.92, 1:10.95 (fast)
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2024
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Sierra Leone
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9th by 6.25 lengths (12 starters)
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:49.67, 1:14.74 (sloppy)
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2023
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Angel of Empire
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9th by 5.75 lengths (14 starters)
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:47.50, 1:12.21 (fast)
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2022
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Epicenter
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1st by 1 length (10 starters)
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:47.97, 1:12.25 (fast)
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2021
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Mandaloun
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3rd by 2 lengths (11 starters)
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:48.45, 1:12.74 (fast)
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2020 (Div #2)
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Modernist
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2nd by 0.5 lengths (11 starters)
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:48.57, 1:12.62 (fast)
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2020 (Div #1)
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Mr. Monomoy
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1st by 0.5 lengths (11 starters)
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:48.57, 1:12.85 (fast)
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2019
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War of Will
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2nd by 2.5 lengths (14 starters)
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:47.36, 1:12.20 (fast)
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2018
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Bravazo
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2nd by a head (9 starters)
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:47.96, 1:12.85 (fast)
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2017
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Girvin
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5th by 9.5 lengths (11 starters)
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:47.02, 1:11.98 (fast)
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2016
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Gun Runner
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4th by 4.5 lengths (11 starters)
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:46.38, 1:11.33 (fast)
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|
2015
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International Star
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6th by 6.5 lengths (9 starters)
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:47.08, 1:12.16 (fast)
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2014
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Intense Holiday
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7th by 6 lengths (14 starters)
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:48.14, 1:13.00 (fast)
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2013
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Ive Struck a Nerve
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11th by 7 lengths (12 starters)
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:48.34, 1:12.74 (fast)
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|
2012
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El Padrino
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3rd by 3 lengths (11 starters)
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:48.72, 1:13.15 (fast)
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|
2011
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Mucho Macho Man
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2nd by 1.5 lengths (10 starters)
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:49.24, 1:13.65 (fast)
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Favorites are vulnerable and longshots often surprise
Since 2011, favorites have gone 4-for-16 (25%) in the Risen Star, succeeding at a lower rate than usual for favorites.
Winning favorites have been outnumbered by winning longshots. The last 16 editions of the Risen Star have seen five major upsets from Ive Struck a Nerve (135.20-1), Bravazo (21-1), Modernist (12.80-1), Angel of Empire (13.70-1), and Magnitude (43.20-1).
In addition, Chunk of Gold (43.30-1), Sun Thunder (16.60-1), Snapper Sinclair (41.70-1), Forevamo (40.60-1), and Albano (13.60-1) have all finished second in the Risen Star since 2011.
Look for horses exiting the Lecomte Stakes
The Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes, held in January at Fair Grounds, is the local prep for the Risen Star. Seven of the last 16 Risen Star winners (44%) exited the Lecomte: Magnitude (2025), Epicenter (2022), Mandaloun (2021), Mr. Monomoy (2020), War of Will (2019), International Star (2015), and Ive Struck a Nerve (2013).
Favor horses who have previously competed in stakes races
Horses with experience competing in stakes races perform best in the Risen Star, winning 15 of the last 16 editions. The only horse without stakes experience to win the Risen Star since 2011 was Modernist, who won the slower of two Risen Star divisions in 2020.
A recent prep race is beneficial
Fourteen of the last 16 Risen Star winners (88%) entered the Risen Star after contesting a recent prep race in either January or February. The two exceptions were Gun Runner (2016) and Sierra Leone (2024), who were racing for the first time at age 3. Gun Runner and Sierra Leone were tremendous talents who went on to become champions.
Asmussen, Cox are the hot trainers
Trainers Steve Asmussen and Brad Cox have enjoyed abundant success in the Risen Star.
Asmussen, a Hall of Fame inductee, has won the race four times with Pyro (2008), Gun Runner (2016), Epicenter (2022), and Magnitude (2025).
Meanwhile, Cox’s three Risen Star wins have come in the last half-dozen years with Mr. Monomoy (2020), Mandaloun (2021), and Angel of Empire (2023).
Conclusions
History suggests the most likely winner of the 2026 Risen Star is #5 Chip Honcho, who is an excellent match for the trends we’ve outlined.
Chip Honcho has plenty of early speed, which he demonstrated when pressing the pace on his way to victory in the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds. He prepped for the Risen Star in January, running fourth (beaten only 1 3/4 lengths) in the Lecomte Stakes. He’s trained by Steve Asmussen, and his Lecomte defeat should ensure he starts at enticing odds — he might even be a double-digit longshot.
In contrast, expected favorite #4 Paladin hasn’t run since December and is seeking to emulate Gun Runner and Sierra Leone by winning the Risen Star in his 3-year-old debut. Perhaps the advantage of recent racing experience will give Chip Honcho the edge he needs to spring an upset.
Enjoy the race!
