This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2026 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not as strong as they previously were. In the second edition of this blog for the 2026 run for the roses, the focus is on what has changed since the previous edition on Jan. 21.

HEATING UP

1. Silent Tactic

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My two favorite stakes winners on the Derby trail over the last two weeks were undoubtedly Silent Tactic in the $1 million Southwest Stakes Feb. 6 at Oaklawn Park and Renegade in the Sam F. Davis Stakes Feb. 7 at Tampa Bay Downs (more on Renegade below). I gave Silent Tactic the top spot because he really surprised me and the betting public at 12-1 odds with a massive step forward in his fourth career start and second try on dirt. The bay colt by Tacitus ran well in his first two starts on the all-weather surface at Woodbine, winning his debut and finishing second in the Grade 3 bet365 Grey Stakes. He then finished a distant second, beaten by 4 ½ lengths by stablemate Strategic Risk in the Smarty Jones Stakes Jan. 3 at Oaklawn Park. He overcame an outside post, a wide trip, and a moderate pace to close from second-to-last in the 12-horse Southwest field for a 3 ¼-length victory. He completed his final quarter-mile in :24.56 and his final furlong in :12.08, flashy finishing times, to earn a new career-best 88 Beyer Speed Figure and 103 Equibase Speed Figure, the latter a 17-point improvement while boosting his Beyer by seven points. Out of a Gun Runner mare, Silent Tactic should be able to handle additional distance for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse.

2. Renegade

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Of this group of heating up candidates, I believe Renegade has the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby and it was a tough call to slot him in second here. Fact is, I held him in high regard entering the year based on his two previous races – a DQ loss to Paladin and a second to that rival in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes – and his dominant win in the $210,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes was no surprise as the 6-5 favorite in the nine-horse field. Nonetheless, he did everything right in his 3-year-old debut and showed the type of progression you like to see in a Derby hopeful. He earned a new career-top 92 Beyer Speed Figure and 100 Equibase Speed Figure and left the opposition in the dust with a final quarter-mile in a sizzling :24.30 for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher. As I noted in this week’s Derby prospect profile, Renegade is bred to excel at 1 ¼ miles and looks like a serious threat to win the first jewel of the Triple Crown.

3. Plutarch

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After a third-place finish in the American Pharoah Stakes Presented by DK Horse Oct. 5, 2025, Plutarch was shifted back to turf by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert for his final two starts as a 2-year-old. He placed in another stakes race and won a maiden special weight race, but in his 3-year-old debut Plutarch ran by far the best race of his career to date back on the dirt in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes Feb. 7 at Santa Anita Park. He pressed pacesetter Intrepido (the American Pharoah Stakes winner) from his outside flank along the backstretch, ratcheted up the pressure entering the far turn, and edged away from his game rival in the final sixteenth of a mile to win by three-quarters of a length. The bay colt by perennial leading sire Into Mischief out of 2015 champion 3-year-old filly Stellar Wind, by Curlin, showed maturity early in the race while dueling between rivals and determination late to put away a Grade 1 winner. He completed his final quarter-mile in :25.65 and earned a new career-top 90 Beyer Speed Figure while stepping out of the shadow of several more ballyhooed Baffert stablemates.

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Also eligible: The other two big U.S. stakes winners from the last two weeks were Holy Bull Stakes winner Nearly and Withers Stakes victor Talk to Me Jimmy. Nearly made my top three in the Jan. 21 edition of Heating Up-Cooling Down off an allowance-optional claiming race victory and I profiled him last week after the Holy Bull. He’s a promising colt but I did not love how slowly he finished in the Holy Bull. Likewise, Talk to Me Jimmy was a dominant 11-length, front-running winner in the Withers, but his final quarter-mile in :26.76 after a moderate pace gives me pause when evaluating how he’ll handle better competition. … Emerging Market looked like a colt with a very bright future in a debut win at one-mile and 40 yards, outbattling Powershift in the Tampa Bay Downs stretch on the Sam F. Davis undercard to earn a 96 Beyer Speed Figure. … Two other maiden winners I’m adding to my Equibase Virtual Stable after last weekend are Top Level and Easterly. Top Level debuted on the grass around two turns for Mark Casse and showed little, but cutting back to three-quarters of a mile on the dirt Feb. 6 at Oaklawn unlocked something. He delivered a professional effort, identified a target in the stretch, and sprinted clear by 2 ¾ lengths. The fact that Casse started him out in a two-turn race gives me hope he might be more than a sprinter. Easterly led in deep stretch of his debut at a mile before fading to second, but he dominated by 2 ¾ lengths Feb. 7 at Gulfstream Park going 1 1/16 miles for trainer Brad Cox. Easterly will need to run faster to compete at the stakes level but he looks like he has some ability. … Six Speed has won three straight in Dubai, including a five-length win in the U.A.E. Two Thousand Guineas Presented by Longines. I’m a fan of the Kentucky-bred Not This Time colt, but I’m skeptical of the quality of competition he’s been beating in Dubai for trainer Bhupat Seemar, who also recently unveiled flashy debut winner Salloom, by Authentic.

COOLING DOWN

1. Strategic Risk

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While Silent Tactic was a pleasant surprise for owner John Oxley and trainer Mark Casse in the $1 million Southwest Stakes Feb. 6 at Oaklawn Park, Strategic Risk exited the race at the other end of the spectrum with the same owner-trainer tandem questioning what went wrong in his 10^th-place finish. The Noble Bird colt had won the FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality Stakes and $250,000 Smarty Jones Stakes, the latter at the same track and 1 1/16-mile distance at Oaklawn, entering the Southwest but faded to finish 10 ½ lengths behind Silent Tactic. Casse guessed that perhaps the inclement weather and interrupted training routine might have impacted Strategic Risk’s performance. “I really don’t know what happened with him,” Casse said. “If you’re watching, he looks like he’s struggling. Maybe that little time off maybe bothered him more than the others. I’m going to run back in the Rebel [Stakes March 1] as long as he’s fine.”

2. Incredibolt

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Entering the Holy Bull Stakes, I thought the race came down to Incredibolt and Nearly. While I was on point with my evaluation of winner Nearly, I whiffed on Incredibolt, who finished last of six and beaten by 25 ¼ lengths in the Jan. 31 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. I am holding out hope that it was one bad race from a 3-year-old who has shown real talent. The Bolt d’Oro colt entered the race with high expectations following a two-length victory Sept. 28 going a mile at Churchill Downs and a 1 ¾-length score in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes. Incredibolt finished powerfully in the Street Sense with a final quarter-mile in :24.56 and a final furlong in :12.47 on the dirt track that will host the Kentucky Derby, which is why I was so optimistic about his chances to be an elite 3-year-old. The Holy Bull was a step back, but it’s important to remember that progress is not linear with animals. Perhaps he needed the race or, as trainer Riley Mott speculated on FanDuel TV, did not care for the Gulfstream surface.

3. Desert Gate

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The Bob Baffert-trained Omaha Beach colt returned from a four-month layoff to make his 3-year-old debut in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes Feb. 7 at Santa Anita Park, where he was the 6-5 favorite in the seven-horse field. He was outshined by stablemate Plutarch, who outfinished American Pharoah Stakes winner Intrepido for a three-quarter-length win. Desert Gate was beaten by four lengths while running fourth in the Robert B. Lewis, a disappointing but certainly not a devastating defeat. I expected more from last year’s Best Pal Stakes winner and runner-up in both the Del Mar Futurity and American Pharoah Stakes, but he was returning from an extended time away and very likely was not fully cranked up. Still, it’s concerning that in his last three stakes, Desert Gate has been in contention but could not get the job done. He might be a cut below the best of the 3-year-old division.

Of note: The biggest news outside of the Derby trail races since the previous edition was the injury to reigning champion 2-year-old male Ted Noffey that will sideline him for the 2026 Triple Crown races. Unbeaten in four starts, the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA winner will be pointed to a return this summer. It’s a significant void on the 2026 Kentucky Derby trail. … Three maiden winners who performed below expectations in their stakes debuts were D’code in the Southwest Stakes, Cannoneer in the Holy Bull Stakes, and Confessional in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. All three were stretching out from sprints to two-turn races while stepping up in terms of quality of competition. D’code, to me, looks like he might be a very good sprinter.