This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2026 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not as strong as they previously were. In the fourth edition of this blog for the 2026 run for the roses, the focus is on what has changed since the previous edition on Feb. 18.

HEATING UP

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1. Commandment

I admit I was not a believer in Commandment after the Mucho Macho Man Stakes Jan. 3 at Gulfstream Park. I thought he beat a suspect group in that seven-horse field and his final quarter-mile in :25.47 in the one-mile race left me wanting to see more, especially considering the leisurely pace. The bay Into Mischief colt delivered in the $400,000 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes Feb. 28 at Gulfstream against better opposition when stretching out around two turns, finishing with a final furlong in :12.77 to fend off a determined surge from runner-up Chief Wallabee. There was much discussion after the race about how well Commandment galloped out – and that was good to see – but most important to me was he finished strongly and was up to the challenge from a quality opponent. He’s won three straight now for trainer Brad Cox and earned a career-best 101 Beyer Speed Figure, a 10-point improvement that is the kind of forward step you like to see from a 3-year-old in March. It’s also the top Beyer figure posted by a 3-year-old this year. By leading sire Into Mischief out of Sippican Harbor, a Grade 1 winner at age 2 by 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb, Commandment profiles as a major player on the Derby trail with the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby March 29 at Gulfstream a possibility for his next start.

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2. Class President

This week’s Kentucky Derby prospect profile highlighted Class President’s upset win in the $1 million Rebel Stakes March 1 at Oaklawn Park in his first try stretching out around two turns. He entered the race off a second to Solitude Dude in the seven-furlong Swale Stakes. I considered him for the top spot here, but eventually settled on a close second. Read more about Class President here, but to simplify my evaluation of a very good Rebel victory: he outfinished a strong opponent in Silent Tactic, aced his first two-turn test, fought determinedly in the final sixteenth of a mile, and finished fast with a final eighth of a mile in :12.35. With a Hall of Fame trainer-jockey tandem in John Velazquez and Todd Pletcher and a pedigree that offers reason for optimism that he can excel as the races get longer on the Derby trail, there is much to like in Class President. He earned a new career-top 99 Equibase Speed Figure and 91 Beyer Speed Figure, so he will need to improve in his next start ... and that was the key separator between Commandment and Class President this week.

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3. Chief Wallabee

My favorable impression of Commandment in the Fountain of Youth Feb. 28 at Gulfstream logically leads to a similarly positive outlook for Chief Wallabee, who closed from second to finish just a neck short of Commandment in only his second career start. The bay Constitution colt trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott entered the Fountain of Youth off of a 1 ½-length debut win in a sprint Jan. 10 at Gulfstream Park. He finished with a final eighth of a mile in :12.90 and a final quarter-mile in :25.37 when stretching out around two turns for the Fountain of Youth while trying stakes competition for the first time. With two very promising races to date, Chief Wallabee appears to be a serious racehorse with a bright future. He earned a career-best 99 Equibase Speed Figure and a 100 Beyer Speed Figure, the latter especially eye-catching for a racehorse in his second start. Mott is typically conservative as a trainer, so it will be interesting to see where he spots Chief Wallabee for his next start and whether he makes a push to qualify him for the Kentucky Derby.

Also Eligible: I did seriously consider Reagan’s Honor for a top-three spot, more so than Gotham Stakes winner Iron Honor or John Battaglia Memorial Stakes winner Great White. A dark bay or brown colt by Honor A. P. trained by Cherie DeVaux, Reagan’s Honor won a 1 1/16-mile allowance race by 6 ¾ lengths Feb. 19 at Fair Grounds in his third start. After an unplaced debut in a sprint, he’s dominated two starts stretching out around two turns and earned a 105 Equibase Speed Figure and 96 Beyer Speed Figure. I’m eager to see how he handles improved competition. ... Iron Honor improved to 2-for-2 with a hard-fought, one-length win in the Feb. 28 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. He battled with Crown the Buckeye through an opening half-mile in :46.30 and eventually put away the game challenger to win the one-mile race. It was 6 ½ lengths back to third-place finisher Right to Party, so the top two were much better than the rest of the field. It was a nice win for Iron Honor but his final quarter-mile in :26.39 leaves me skeptical he wants to go much farther. ... Great White showed tenacity to held off Fulleffort by a neck in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes Feb. 21 at Turfway Park. It was a nice bounce-back effort from a troubled fifth in the Leonatus Stakes in his previous start. All three of Great White’s races have come on all-weather surfaces, however, and have not been especially fast.

COOLING DOWN

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1. Plutarch

The bay colt by Into Mischief established himself as a quality 2-year-old with a third-place finish in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes Presented by DK Horse along with a win and two stakes-placings on turf. He stepped into the Kentucky Derby spotlight with a front-running, three-quarter-length win in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes Feb. 7 at Santa Anita Park in his season debut. It was a quality stakes win that stamped Plutarch as a top 3-year-old for six-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert, but on Feb. 25 the Churchill Downs communications department announced that Plutarch would be sidelined and miss the Kentucky Derby. Disappointing news for his connections, but hopefully Plutarch will make a full recovery and compete in the marquee 3-year-old races in summer and fall.

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2. Napoleon Solo & Blackout Time

Napoleon Solo returned for his first start in nearly four months in the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes Feb. 28 at Gulfstream Park for trainer Chad Summers. Blackout Time returned from a nearly identical layoff March 1 in the Rebel Stakes for trainer Kenny McPeek. Both looked like they desperately needed a race and were nowhere close to 100% fit. Last seen winning the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes by 6 ½ lengths last October, Napoleon Solo was third after a half-mile before fading late and finishing 11 ¾ lengths behind winner Commandment. Blackout Time had not competed since running second to eventual champion Ted Noffey in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity Oct. 4, 2025, at Keeneland. He, too, was third after a half-mile in the Rebel before fading to fourth, eight lengths behind Class President. Both are worth giving a second chance in their second race after a long layoff, but it’s hard to deny they disappointed in their first start at age 3.

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3. Soldier N Diplomat

Soldier N Diplomat followed a promising second in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes, which produced a career-top 97 Equibase Speed Figure, with a fifth-place finish in the $1 million Rebel Stakes March 1 at Oaklawn Park. He was 13 ½ lengths behind winner Class President and saw his Equibase Speed Figure dip 19 points. Progress is not linear with racehorses, but it is tough to overcome a significant regression like that. He’ll need a much-improved race in his next start for trainer Steve Asmussen to remain a viable Kentucky Derby candidate.

Of note: I thought Solitude Dude ran really well when third in the Fountain of Youth Stakes Feb. 28 in his first try stretching out from sprints, earning a 96 Equibase Speed Figure and a 97 Beyer Speed Figure, but it sounds like trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. intends to cut him back in distance and target some big 3-year-old races at a mile or shorter.