The Basics: How to Bet the Kentucky Derby
Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money. Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.
Six Beginner Betting Tools
- Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
- Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you
- What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
- Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
- We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
- Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.
Saturday, April 18
With Kentucky Derby qualifying officially finished now with a little more than two weeks to go until the run for the roses, the focus on the 3-year-old calendar this weekend switches to the Preakness Stakes. Oaklawn Park and Laurel Park will both host 3-year-old stakes races this Saturday offering automatic berths directly into the second jewel of the Triple Crown to the winners. For this weekend’s winners, let’s go with a Preakness theme and take a closer look at Saturday’s Preakness qualifying races, the Bathhouse Row Stakes at Oaklawn Park and the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel. Hopefully we can cash-in right away and then look for the winners of these races four weeks from now in the Preakness Stakes on May 16. Best of luck and enjoy the races.
Oaklawn Park, Race 6, $200,000 Bathhouse Row Stakes, 4:27 p.m. ET
The Bathhouse Row Stakes drew an eight-horse field of 3-year-olds ready to run 1 1/8 miles for a purse of $200,000 plus an automatic berth into the Preakness. In the seven-year history of the Bathhouse Row Stakes, the race has been dominated by two trainers as both Steve Asmussen and Brad Cox each having won the race three times. Cox does not have a runner in the field this year, but Asmussen does, and that’s the horse we need to focus on. The Asmussen-trained #1 Thebabeslayer is listed at bargain 6-1 odds on the morning line and comes into this race off a 5 ½-length stakes win in the restricted $110,000 Texas Thoroughbred Association Derby Presented by Texas Thoroughbred Association. The win yielded the highest last-race Beyer Speed Figure in this field, and when you combine that with the barn’s past success in this race, you have a solid top selection at a potential overlay price. The horse to beat will be #2 Western Warrior, who has been one of the top horses at the 2025-’26 Oaklawn meet with three wins in three races this season including a seven-length allowance-optional claiming win last time out. He’ll be a big favorite and should be included in all of your exacta and trifecta tickets. Finally, the other horse that belongs on your tickets is #4 Khon Han, who ships to Oaklawn from Florida after winning a high-class allowance-optional claiming race at Tampa Bay Downs by three lengths last time out in his first-ever attempt stretching out in distance. He’s already tried stakes company in his second lifetime start and was not embarrassed when second by a length at Gulfstream Park. He has a much better chance to win this race than his 10-1 morning-line odds would suggest.
The Play: Bet on #1 Thebabeslayer (6-1) to win and box him in exactas and trifectas along with #2 Western Warrior (8-5), and #4 Khon Han (10-1).
Laurel Park, Race 11, $150,000 Federico Tesio Stakes, post time 4:49 p.m. ET
The Federico Tesio Stakes is Maryland’s longstanding local prep race for the Preakness, and this year’s winner receives an automatic berth to the second jewel of the Triple Crown. The Tesio has drawn 10-horses ready to race 1 1/8 miles and much of the field has spent the year so far beating up on each other in Laurel’s earlier 3-year-old stakes, including February’s Miracle Wood Stakes won by #10 Taj Mahal and March’s Private Terms Stakes won by #4 Wild Warrior . Let’s use both of them on our tickets in the Tesio. Based on speed figures, the Miracle Wood was the stronger of those two previous races, but Wild Warrior has racked-up a very good record so far in two-turn races and stands to benefit the most from this 1 1/8-mile distance despite lacking a standout speed figure so far. One additional contender to consider in this wide-open race is #6 Close the Gate, who finished second in February’s Spectacular Bid Stakes at Laurel, was third in the Miracle Wood, and then went to Colonial Downs last time and finished third by a half a length against a tough field that included unbeaten Code Review and runner-up I Did I Did, who returned to run fourth in last weekend’s Grade 3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes.
The Play: Go for value odds and bet on #6 Close the Gate (10-1) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes along with #4 Wild Warrior (6-1) and #10 Taj Mahal (7-2).
