BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his Derby Dozen with a look at his leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 4.

Last weekend was an active one for Kentucky Derby points races as four were held: the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway Park, and the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park. Only one prep race is scheduled for the upcoming weekend: the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday, March 9.

Check out America’s Best Racing’s Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

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1. Dornoch 

Though victorious in his first start at 3, winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, this was a workmanlike return in which he went to the front and turned back an inside bid from 27.10-1 longshot Le Dom Bro to score by 1 ¾ lengths. Following the scratches of Locked, Victory Avenue, and Speak Easy, there was very little chasing this full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage; the runner-up and show finisher Frankie’s Empire are not Triple Crown nominated. Dornoch raced a little greenly, reflected by a late lead change, and seemed to be doing only what was required, flicking his ears nearing the finish.

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2. Fierceness

He nearly regained the top spot in the Derby Dozen rankings this week, owing to the ordinary Fountain of Youth victory from Dornoch, but in the end, last year’s champion juvenile holds steady at number two. Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher has expressed satisfaction with this colt’s training since his third-place finish in the Feb. 3 Holy Bull Stakes as he prepares to regroup in the March 30 Florida Derby at Gulfstream. Erratic through his four career starts, he is also quick when he puts it all together. His win in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA last fall was a beauty, and a return to that brilliance would make him imposing on the Derby trail.

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3. Sierra Leone

Of all the Derby Dozen-ranked 3-year-olds, no one has beaten a better stakes field this year than this well-bred colt. He ran down a loose-on-the-lead Track Phantom in capturing a slow-paced Risen Star Stakes over the latter’s home track at Fair Grounds, and other talented runners such as Catching Freedom, Resilience, and Honor Marie were also behind him. His final time of 1:52.13 for 1 1/8 miles over a sloppy track was the slowest in the Risen Star since the race was extended to that distance in 2020; the clocking did not match the class evaluation of the race. He resumed working March 2 at Payson Park Training Center as he points to the April 6 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.

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4. Forever Young

He and a handful of others on this list rise a spot in the rankings, owing to the removal of Locked (previously fourth) from the Dozen. (After a setback caused Locked to miss the Feb. 10 Sam F. Davis Stakes, he was scratched from the March 2 Fountain of Youth after trainer Todd Pletcher said he was dissatisfied with the colt’s behavior Saturday.) As for Forever Young, he needed the full length of the massive stretch at King Abdulaziz Racecourse to run down sprinter/middle-distance runner Book’em Danno in the Feb. 24 Saudi Derby held at about a mile. The race was much quicker than prior runnings of the Saudi Derby.

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5. Timberlake

Though he did not defeat a vintage Rebel Stakes field Feb. 24 at Oaklawn Park, he scored the right way, shutting off early to kindly stalk the pace for jockey Cristian Torres and finishing well to pull away late from longshot Common Defense, who had slipped up the fence with a perfect trip. Like Dornoch, Timberlake was a little slow with his lead change and was still a little green through the lane, but his finish was on target. His final sixteenth of the 1 1/16-mile Rebel was timed in :06.09 for a final time of 1:44. A son of record-setting sire Into Mischief, he has an interesting blend of speed and staying power in his pedigree, with his dam a winner over a 1 ¾-mile trip in Britain.

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6. Track Phantom

After rattling off three straight wins – coming in a Nov. 25 maiden race at Churchill Downs, and the Dec. 23 Gun Runner Stakes and the Jan. 20 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds – he settled for second in the Risen Star. There were no excuses. He enjoyed a comfortable front-running trip and was run down, admittedly by a quality foe in Sierra Leone. Barring a change in plans, he will not have to deal with Sierra Leone in the March 23 Louisiana Derby as that rival is pointed to the Blue Grass. Should Track Phantom make his way to the Derby, he will not lack seasoning, having started on essentially a monthly basis since his unveiling on Oct. 1. The Louisiana Derby will mark his fourth stakes start since just before Christmas.

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7. Catching Freedom

He seems to know that morning breezes are only practice, rarely posting a workout that excites folks after checking the times on their stopwatches. His March 3 drill was a case in point: a half-mile in :51.20. He seems to know it’s show time in the afternoons. The Constitution colt won the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn and ran third in the Risen Star Stakes, turning in a solid kick in the latter race when jostled late. He could re-appear in any number of 3-year-old stakes races, depending on where trainer Brad Cox aims his other runners. The Louisiana Derby and March 30 Arkansas Derby seem to be two of the logical options given this colt’s familiarity with Fair Grounds and Oaklawn.

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8. Mystik Dan

His race in the Southwest Stakes was one of the fastest performances by a Derby prospect this year, with him running his final sixteenth in :05.93 on his way to winning by eight lengths with 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.67. He earned a 110 Equibase Speed Figure, a number surpassed only by Nysos among 3-year-olds racing on dirt this year. Skimming the inside portion of the track, he seemed to skip over the muddy surface in the Southwest. Take note that also ran quickly in breaking his maiden when sprinting on a fast track last year, but his two routes on fast tracks resulted in fifths, with one of those losses behind Catching Freedom in the Smarty Jones. Arkansas Derby is on deck.

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9. Tuscan Sky

Without any Kentucky Derby qualifying points, his Derby status depends on him securing those in the final round of major preps. Based on historical trends, a 1-2 finish may be required to secure a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. A second-place finish would give him 50 points, a win 100 points. Having gone 2-for-2 with wins at Aqueduct and Fair Grounds, racing both times on wet tracks, upcoming stakes such as the March 23 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds or the April 6 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino in New York hold appeal. His allowance optional claiming win at Fair Grounds on Risen Star Day was the fastest race for 3-year-olds on that sloppy afternoon from an Equibase Speed Figure perspective.

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10. Deterministic 

Unraced since scoring in his debut against maidens when racing seven furlongs at Saratoga Race Course in August, he had a right to come up a little short in the one-mile Gotham Stakes this past Saturday at Aqueduct. But he was strongest at the finish, following the bid of El Grande O (ultimately third) and outkicking favored Just a Touch, a fellow last-out maiden winner and the eventual runner-up. Owing to the strength of his finish, he cracks the Dozen, even though he is the lone 3-year-old on this list not yet with a two-turn victory. As for his prospects going longer, his dam was a turf sprinter but he has stamina influences more distant in the female side of his pedigree. Sire Liam’s Map was a dual Grade 1 stakes winner around two turns, including in the 1 1/8-mile Woodward Stakes in 2015.

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11. Conquest Warrior 

After overcoming a troubled start and traffic problems to rally and break his maiden by a half-length Jan. 13 at Gulfstream, he showed what he could do with a clean trip when heavily favored March 1 against first-level allowance optional claiming runners there. After breaking a half-step slowly, he settled in fourth and reeled in leader Merit, the race’s second choice, before drawing off by five lengths. His Equibase Speed Figure was light, an 85, for covering 1 1/8 miles in 1:50.52, but he passed the eye test over two turns; he’s in the same boat as Tuscan Sky in needing Derby points in an upcoming prep.

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12. Hades

Perfect in three starts, he clings to the final spot in the Dozen rankings, with Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes winner Honor Marie exiting the top 12 due to running a non-threatening fifth in the Risen Star. As for Hades, he turned away a slow-starting and comebacking Fierceness to capture the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream. (Fierceness would run third.) Domestic Product, the runner-up in the Holy Bull, is pointed to the March 9 Tampa Bay Derby, and how he performs there will provide a gauge of the strength of the Holy Bull. The race had a slow final time 1:46.07, though the track was on the tiring side and unfolded with a slow pace, which was to this frontrunner’s benefit.

Note: With Churchill Downs Inc.’s continued ban of Bob Baffert from racing at its tracks and of his horses from earning Kentucky Derby qualifying points, none of his top 3-year-olds, including Nysos, Muth, and Imagination, are in the Derby Dozen. Nysos, the favorite in future wagering for the Preakness Stakes, would be on top in these rankings if eligible.