BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his Derby Dozen with a look at his leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 4.

Last weekend, Timberlake made his 3-year-old debut in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park and won by two lengths to earn 50 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby. Four qualifying points preps are scheduled for Saturday, March 2: the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park, and the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway Park.

Check out America’s Best Racing’s Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

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1. Dornoch 

A full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage, he returns to action in the March 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, his first start since defeating Sierra Leone in the Dec. 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct. The 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth also drew Grade 1 winner Locked, quick debut winner Speak Easy, and two or three other 3-year-olds of exciting ability. (Speak Easy and another entrant, Merit, are cross-entered in an allowance optional claimer March 1 at Gulfstream.) Dornoch’s latest work at Palm Meadows Training Center Feb. 24, posted on X (formerly known as Twitter) by XBTV, was excellent. He left workmate Neat Trick far behind when cut loose in the lane and galloped out enthusiastically.

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2. Fierceness

Coming off a subpar third in the Feb. 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream, Fierceness encouragingly showed eagerness in his first breeze since the race. Working at Palm Beach Downs Feb. 23 in company with Sam F. Davis Stakes runner-up Agate Road, he always appeared to be traveling more easily than that rival on his way to clocking a half-mile in :48.54 while in hand. Last year’s champion 2-year-old male and FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA winner will aim to get back on track at Gulfstream in the March 30 Florida Derby, a race Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher has won seven times.

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3. Sierra Leone

His win in the Feb. 17 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds came in seemingly the strongest top-to-bottom Derby prep based on its entries, and he managed the victory while rallying from ninth to catch a loose-on-the-lead Track Phantom. The race was not quick, however. Sierra Leone’s 1 1/8-mile time of 1:52.13 was the slowest in the Risen Star since the race was extended to that distance in 2020. Admittedly, it was on a sloppy track. His Equibase Speed Figure was modest, a 98, and other speed figure providers rated his effort from moderate to slow. Perhaps the conditions, which included a dawdling pace, contributed.

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4. Locked 

He was an elite 2-year-old in 2023, as he showed in winning the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland and finishing third in the swiftly run Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita Park. Slow into stride in the Breeders’ Cup, he rallied down the stretch, hinting at potential improvement when races extend beyond 1 1/16 miles. Initially pointed toward the Feb. 10 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, he was rerouted to the Fountain of Youth after a setback left him off the work tab for a few weeks. That training interruption could leave him shy of being fully cranked for his return in Saturday’s Fountain of Youth, with improvement anticipated in his second start off the bench.

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5. Forever Young

Japan’s top hope for the run for the roses, he rises a spot in the Derby Dozen rankings after improving to 4-for-4 with a head win in the Feb. 24 Saudi Derby over American sprinter/miler Book’em Danno. Jostled a bit leaving the gate, Forever Young appeared in trouble when under encouragement in midpack on the turn of the one-mile race. But he leveled out over the long stretch at King Abdulaziz Racecourse, catching Book’em Danno right on the wire. This performance had some flaws – he was not responsive early and never switched leads down the lane – and yet he found a way to win while hinting he wants more distance.

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6. Timberlake

He also climbs a position in the Dozen, having won his first start at 3 in this past Saturday’s Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Not showing overeagerness that hampered his finish at times at 2, he rated under Cristian Torres just behind the leaders in fifth, went after the front-runners with a wide advance on the second turn, and pulled away for a two-length victory. He drifted out under left-handed urging when switching leads in early stretch but then seemed to straighten out under a right-handed stick. This was an encouraging first two-turn win for last year’s winner of the Champagne Stakes over a one-turn mile.

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7. Track Phantom

The Gun Runner Stakes and Lecomte Stakes winner descends a couple of positions due to victories from Forever Young and Timberlake. His runner-up finish in the Risen Star Stakes was solid – he lost by just a half-length to Sierra Leone – but everything went his way, though that happens more often for a speedy horse. Clear on the lead through splits of :49.67 and 1:14.74, he seemed to have a prime opportunity to lead throughout. He is not expected to face Sierra Leone next out. Track Phantom is pointed to the March 23 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, while the April 6 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland is on Sierra Leone’s agenda.

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8. Catching Freedom

Winner of the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn and third in the Risen Star Stakes, he does not appear to be as quick as the leading prospects on this list, but he is a determined sort. Bidding between rivals in the Risen Star, he fought on to show after being placed in tight quarters by Sierra Leone and fourth-place Resilience late in the stretch. With trainer Brad Cox having a deep squad of classy 3-year-olds, this colt could appear in any number of the final Derby preps depending on where Cox points his other runners. If he makes the Derby, he will have prior experience on the Churchill Downs strip. In two starts last year at 2, he won a maiden race and was fourth in an allowance optional claimer.

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9. Mystik Dan

Trainer Kenny McPeek is pointing him toward the March 30 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn – logical placement in light of his eight-length win in a muddy Southwest Stakes there. McPeek’s 3-year-olds have been firing at Oaklawn this winter; stablemates Common Defense and Northern Flame outran their odds in finishing 2-3 behind Timberlake in the Rebel Stakes at the Arkansas track. This colt resumed breezing Feb. 23 with a half-mile in :49 at Fair Grounds. Eager to see if he can follow up his Southwest with another top-level performance; his two earlier routes resulted in a pair of fifths.

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10. Tuscan Sky

He ran a point faster than Sierra Leone on an Equibase Speed Figure scale in posting a 99 by defeating Nash by two lengths in a first-level allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds on Risen Star Day. Other figure providers had him running faster by an even larger margin. Coupled with a fast debut win in his only other start, it appears this is a colt with graded stakes potential. Without any Derby qualifying points, he is in the challenging position of likely needing a first- or second-place finish in an upcoming Derby prep to safely gain entrance to a typically oversubscribed Derby – absent squeezing in two preps by making a follow-up start in a race such as the April 13 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.

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11. Hades

Trainer Joe Orseno tossed around the prospect of running the front-running Holy Bull winner in the Fountain of Youth but stuck to his initial plan to await the Florida Derby. He gave him a long, open-gallop workout at Gulfstream Feb. 25, a mile move faster than a two-minute lick with a time of 1:47.96. That followed a more traditional half-mile breeze in :48.41 Feb. 17. Another meeting with Fierceness, whom he defeated in the Holy Bull, is on deck in the March 30 Florida Derby.

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12. Honor Marie 

Willing to give him a pass for a non-impact fifth in the Risen Star. That was his first start of the year, and an absence of pace did not suit his closing style. His two defeats have come in the slop – he had been second in his other try over a wet track – compared to being 2-for-2 on fast surfaces. His two victories were earned on the dirt at Churchill Downs, topped by the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall when he rallied beneath the twin spires for a two-length win.

Note: With Churchill Downs Inc.’s continued ban of Bob Baffert from racing at its tracks and of his horses from earning Kentucky Derby qualifying points, none of his top 3-year-olds, led by Nysos and Muth, are in the Derby Dozen. Nysos would be top-ranked if eligible.