This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2026 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not as strong as they previously were. In the third edition of this blog for the 2026 run for the roses, the focus is on what has changed since the previous edition on Feb. 10.

HEATING UP

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1. Paladin

There was not a ton of internal debate for this week’s edition of three heating up, three cooling down. There were two qualifying Kentucky Derby prep races in the U.S., one being significantly stronger than the other, and the winner of the Saudi Derby is not nominated to the Triple Crown. That made Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes winner Paladin an easy top choice. Last year’s Remsen Stakes winner returned from a two-month layoff with a workmanlike half-length win Feb. 14 at Fair Grounds under Tyler Gaffalione. A chestnut colt by 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner, Paladin stalked a moderate pace in the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star and needed nearly the length of the long Fair Grounds stretch to reel in runner-up Chip Honcho. He completed his final eighth of a mile in :12.52 and his final quarter in :24.82, so he was running well late and earned a new career-best 93 Beyer Speed Figure for the win. The six-point improvement was a nice jump for his 3-year-old debut; Equibase, however, rated the race less favorably with a 93 speed figure compared with the 96 Equibase Speed Figure Paladin earned in the Remsen. Paladin moved to first on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 60 qualifying points and has a spot essentially locked up for trainer Chad Brown. He’s out of an unraced Tapit mare and his grandam (maternal grandmother), India, won the 2006 Cotillion Stakes, so 1 ¼ miles should be within his scope. He’s expected to make his next start in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes April 4 at Keeneland.

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2. Chip Honcho

I’m less confident about Chip Honcho’s chances to excel at 1 ¼ miles than I am with Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes winner Paladin, but I must credit the runner-up for running a heck of a race in defeat. He set the pace in the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star and fought the length of stretch before giving way grudgingly in the closing strides. The dark bay or brown Connect colt closed out his 2-year-old season with a victory in the Gun Runner Stakes in his stakes debut for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, but he took a step back when fading to fourth in the 1 1/16-mile Lecomte Stakes Jan. 17. It was reasonable to believe that the added distance in the Risen Star probably would not benefit Chip Honcho, but he proved incredibly determined on the lead and boosted his career-best Beyer Speed Figure 10 points to a 92. The Equibase jump of six points to a 93 was only slightly less flattering. Considering Chip Honcho did the heavy lifting on the lead early in the Risen Star, his final eighth of a mile in :12.86 was solid. He also is on sound footing in terms of qualifying for the Kentucky Derby with 39 points, which currently ranks second. My main concern is that I think he’s unlikely to inherit an unchallenged lead as the races get longer and the talent around him improves, but he showed guts in the stretch Saturday at Fair Grounds.

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3. Pavlovian

Many Kentucky Derby fans initially thought pacesetter Express Kid held off the late bid of Pavlovian in the Feb. 15 Sunland Park Derby, as did Sunland Park track announcer Eric Alwan, but Pavlovian came out on top by a whisker in a thrilling photo finish. The pace was strong in the 1 1/16-mile race and, as a result, neither of the top two runners finished especially fast and the speed figures are reflective of that: Pavlovian earned an 87 Equibase Speed Figure and 87 Beyer Speed Figure. There’s also a question of the quality of competition in the six-horse Sunland Derby field as Pavlovian exited a third-place finish against California-breds in the California Chrome Cal Cup Derby and banked his first stakes win and first 20 qualifying points for the 2026 Kentucky Derby.  Pavlovian has got some improving to do to be a serious player on the Derby trail, but the Sunland Derby was a positive step.

Al Haram (JC of Saudi Arabia/Mathea Kelley)

Also Eligible: If Saudi Derby winner Al Haram was nominated to the Triple Crown, I very likely would have given him the slight edge over Pavlovian for the top spot. He closed willingly to overhaul runner-up Obliteration, a multiple stakes-winning sprinter in the U.S., and is expected to go on to the 1 3/16-mile U.A.E. Derby March 28 at Meydan for trainer for Abdullah Alsidrani. Al Haram is 4-for-4 but has never raced longer than one mile, so that race will be a significant hurdle that might lead to Derby aspirations should he pass the test. … Remington Springboard Mile winner Express Kid was game in defeat in the Sunland Park Derby, but he was caught late at 1 1/16 miles and took a step back from a 96 Equibase Speed Figure to an 87. … It’s a little late in the game for Awesome Gun coming out of a 3 ½-length win in a maiden special weight race on the Risen Star Stakes undercard Feb. 14 at Fair Grounds, at least in terms of the Kentucky Derby. But it does appear that the lightbulb came on for the Whisper Hill Farm homebred Gun Runner colt after unplaced finishes in his three previous starts. He’s out of a Curlin mare and his grandam (maternal grandmother) is 2011 Kentucky Oaks winner Plum Pretty, so he’s worth keeping tabs on moving forward.

COOLING DOWN

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1. My World

Trainer Brad Cox shipped My World to Saudi Arabia for the $1.5-million Saudi Derby riding a three-race winning streak. The Essential Quality colt won the Nashua Stakes by 3 ½ lengths as a 2-year-old and opened 2026 with a two-length victory in the Jerome Stakes Jan. 3, both at Aqueduct. Shipping to the Middle East is a big ask from a lightly raced 3-year-old. Whether it was the travel, the racetrack, or the competition, My World made a middle move but faded late and finished 11^th of 14 runners and 21 ¾ lengths behind winner Al Haram. I still think this is a talented individual, but this was unequivocally a step back in terms of his chances to be a factor in the 2026 Kentucky Derby.

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2. Mesquite

After winning his second career start Nov. 7, 2025, in a 1 1/16-mile race at Churchill Downs, Mesquite looking like a promising prospect for the Kentucky Derby. His 2026 debut did nothing to diminish that as he ran second to Golden Tempo in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes. Unfortunately, the Union Rags colt subsequently was sidelined with a soft-tissue injury according to Daily Racing Form and will miss the Kentucky Derby. Mesquite is a 3-year-old worth tracking in the second half of the year. Hopefully, he’ll have a speedy recovery.

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3. Courting

A chestnut colt by two-time Horse of the Year Curlin out of Grade 1 winner Cavorting, Courting dominated his second career start Nov. 9, 2025, in a one-mile race at Aqueduct. Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher was encouraged enough to try the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes next but Courting was compromised by a troubled start in a fourth-place finish. He again did not get off to a good start in the Feb. 14 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes and checked in sixth, beaten by 11 lengths. After tracking a moderate pace from within 3 ½ lengths, Courting didn’t show much late in the Risen Star and looks like a 3-year-old who is not quite ready for this level of competition. Perhaps he’s just maturing a little more slowly than his peers.

Of note: Thunderously made quite a first impression when romping by 5 ½ lengths Jan. 10 at Gulfstream Park for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. Unfortunately, Mott told Daily Racing Form the promising Gun Runner colt will miss some time with an injury. “He’s going to be out for a while, at this point I’m not sure just for how long,” Mott told DRF. “The Triple Crown was going to be a rush anyway.”