Noel’s Weekend Winners: Action Heats Up Saturday in Hot Springs

Gambling
Oaklawn Park, Noel Michaels, Weekend Winners, ABR, America's Best Racing, Triple Crown, horse racing
Horses compete at Oaklawn Park in January 2024. The Hot Springs, Ark. track hosts a competitive card Saturday, including a wide-open late Daily Double. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money. Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.


Six Beginner Betting Tools

  1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
  2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you
  3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
  4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
  5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
  6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

Oaklawn Park hosts a strong program of racing and wagering this Saturday. If we can finish strong late in the card, we should be well on our way to a winning day on Saturday. For this weekend’s winners, let’s take a closer look at Oaklawn’s last two races of the day with picks for Races 9 and 10 plus some exactas, a trifecta, and the late Daily Double. Best of luck and enjoy the weekend.

Saturday, Feb. 21

weekend Television schedule

Friday, Feb. 20: 3-6:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Saturday, Feb. 21: 1-6:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Sunday, Feb. 22: 3-6 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Oaklawn Park, Race 9, $55,000 ratings handicap, 5:55 p.m. ET

A field of 11 fillies and mares will kick off Oaklawn’s late double on Saturday going six furlongs. #11 Liuzza won her first-ever race at Oaklawn Park two races ago with a good come-from-behind effort and her loss last time came at Fair Grounds on the turf. She returns to the main track at Oaklawn against a field she can beat. Liuzza has some tactical speed, too. If you go back to her 6 ½-length win at Churchill Downs last September, she was able to stay much closer to the pace and that versatility will serve her well here. Plus, outside posts have been good at Oaklawn at six furlongs. Speaking of outside posts, #10 Swiftwind also is a major contender in this spot based on her exceptional current form for trainer Steve Asmussen. She stacks up well against this competition based on the last two speed figures, and she has now won five of her last six sprint races dating to last May. Swiftwind has early speed to lead but doesn’t need to be in front in order to win. The 6-1 morning-line odds are a gift if you can get it.

The Play: Bet on #10 Swiftland (6-1) to win and play her in an exacta box along with #11 Liuzza (5-1). Start the late Daily Double with both Swiftland and Liuzza in Race 9 paired with three horses – #5 Excel Calculator, #8 Little Steven, and #11 Eastside Cool – in Race 10 (see analysis below).

Oaklawn Park, Race 10, $31,000 claiming, post time 6:25 p.m. ET

A full field of 12 claiming horses was entered for a wide-open Saturday finale at Oaklawn to round-out the late Daily Double. You can poke holes in the chances of pretty much any horse in this race in one way or another, so to come up with some picks we will concentrate on upside of the various contenders instead of the downside. #11 Eastside Cool exits a loss last time that doesn’t look good on paper but came against a tougher field. A total turnaround could be on the way in this race. He won two races ago by 3 ¾ lengths when last entered in a similar spot, which gave him eight career wins at Oaklawn Park. #5 Excel Calculator also enters the race coming off a loss last time in a tougher race, but he has a good chance at a positive turnaround against this bunch. His form from last summer and fall stacks up well against this field, including a come-from-behind third at Churchill Downs two races ago and rallying wins four and five races back at Churchill and Del Mar. #8 Little Steven is being overlooked on the morning-line odds at 15-1 despite beating some of these same horses at a mile at Oaklawn last time out. He is a horse capable of stringing wins together when he’s in good form as evidenced by his four-race winning streak at Hawthorne last year in two-turn races like this one.

The Play: Bet on #8 Little Steven (15-1) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes along with #5 Excel Calculator (3-1) and #11 Eastside Cool (5-2). Use all three of these horses in the back end of your Daily Doubles that began in Race 9.


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