BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his Derby Dozen with a look at his leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 4.

Last week, No More Time won the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs to earn 20 qualifying points for the 150^th Kentucky Derby. Two more races are on tap for the upcoming weekend: the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, which offers points distributed to the top five finishers on a 50-25-15-10-5 basis; and the Sunland Park Derby at Sunland Park, which gives out points on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale.

Check out America’s Best Racing’s Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Dornoch (right) edges Sierra Leone in Remsen. (Joe Labozzetta/NYRA)

1. Dornoch 

Though he will not be in racing action this week, the Feb. 17 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds should shed some light on whether this colt should stay in the top spot next week. Should Sierra Leone perform well, it would validate the strength of the Remsen Stakes, a race Dornoch narrowly took over Sierra Leone Dec. 2 at Aqueduct. Both colts appeared a bit green in that race, with Dornoch ducking in and glancing off the rail in early stretch and Sierra Leone perhaps losing focus after rallying to take the lead in midstretch. As for this colt, a full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby Mage, he has been on a steady work schedule since Jan. 22 and appears on target for the March 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

BENOIT photo

2. Fierceness

Speaking on “At the Races with Steve Byk” last week, owner Mike Repole of Repole Stable said the March 30 Florida Derby at Gulfstream remains the target for last year’s champion juvenile male after the colt’s letdown performance when third there in the Feb. 3 Holy Bull Stakes. He quipped that given the pattern Fierceness has shown in four starts – alternating fast races with lesser ones – he almost wishes the May 4 Kentucky Derby was next if he were to continue that pattern. The point is clear: Fierceness is brilliant at his best and beatable when not. And to date, it has been a coin flip regarding which version of him has been seen.

Keeneland/Coady Photography

3. Locked 

As of Feb. 13, he has not breezed since Jan. 26. Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher told Daily Racing Form the colt spiked a temperature, and Locked was not entered in the Feb. 10 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, his initial target. The aim is to run the 2023 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity winner in either the Fountain of Youth or the March 9 Tampa Bay Derby, according to the upcoming race schedule posted to the website of co-owner Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners. A workout this week may prove key if he is to make the earlier of those two potential targets.

Eclipse Sportswire

4. Track Phantom

A star of the New Orleans stakes scene this winter, winning the Dec. 23 Gun Runner Stakes and the Jan. 20 Lecomte Stakes, he gets a significant test Saturday in a loaded Risen Star. He and three other Derby Dozen-ranked horses are in the lineup, plus several others not far from missing the cut. Jockey Joel Rosario sticks with him in the Lecomte, though he had also ridden Hall of Fame (also entered in the Risen Star) to an impressive last-out victory for trainer Steve Asmussen. That could not have been an easy choice for the rider and agent Ron Anderson, though Track Phantom is more tried and tested from a stakes perspective.

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5. Sierra Leone

The chart of the Remsen shows him closing from last to a head lead over Dornoch in midstretch, though he appeared to hold an even larger advantage of a half-length shortly thereafter. At that point, Dornoch began to battle back, and this colt, perhaps thinking his task was complete, may have idled a bit. It was just his second start. To begin his 3-year-old season, trainer Chad Brown adds blinkers to Sierra Leone, aiming to improve this 3-year-old’s stretch focus. A $2.3 million auction purchase, he is loaded with pedigree, being by the brilliant racehorse and standout young sire Gun Runner out of Grade 1-winning Heavenly Love.

Katsumi Saito

6. Forever Young

Japan’s top 3-year-old, a winner of all three of his starts, including the Dec. 13 Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun by seven lengths, is a probable starter for the $1.5 million Saudi Derby on Saudi Cup Day, Feb. 24. He is to be joined in the Saudi Derby by fellow Japanese runners Satono Phoenix and Set Up, though the latter is not yet nominated to the American Triple Crown. The one-turn, 1,600-meter (about a mile) test is also expected to draw a couple of talented sprinters/milers from the United States in stakes winners Bentornato and Book’em Danno. The Saudi Derby should provide a measuring stick of Forever Young’s quality.

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7. Timberlake

With the Feb. 24 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park not far off, last year’s comebacking Champagne Stakes winner got serious with his training with a five-furlong bullet workout in :59.40 at Fair Grounds Feb. 10. Many times, trainer Brad Cox will give his stakes horses their stiffest works two weeks before a start before dialing back in their final drills. The 1 1/16-mile Rebel should provide a good two-turn race for often Timberlake, who was fourth in the swiftly run FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA Nov. 3 at Santa Anita Park in his only other attempt around two turns and at the distance.

Coady Photography

8. Honor Marie 

A son of Honor Code, he leaped forward when stretched out to a route last fall, winning the Nov. 25 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. Now, the Whit Beckman trainee returns to action in a talent-laden Risen Star, which, at 1 1/8 miles, will test him in a comeback race over a longer distance than ever before. His only defeat in three starts came when second racing seven furlongs at Churchill behind eventual Remington Springboard Mile Stakes winner Otto the Conqueror.

Eclipse Sportswire

9. Mystik Dan

Following his eight-length victory in the Feb. 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, in which hugged the fence under Brian Hernandez Jr. to win the 1 1/16-mile race in the mud in 1:43.67, he is pointed to the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby March 30 at Oaklawn. Eager to see what he can do there, particularly if the track is fast. He broke his maiden quickly on a fast track at Churchill in the fall, but there is the possibility that he relished the wet conditions more than his rivals in the Southwest. Wet tracks can sometimes lead to strung-out fields and inflated margins of victory.

Coady Photography

10. Catching Freedom

With the same connections, he gives off an Angel of Empire vibe. Like that colt, who would win the Risen Star, Arkansas Derby, and finish third in the 2023 Kentucky Derby as the favorite, Catching Freedom looks like a horse who craves distance. In winning the Jan. 1 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park, he defeated Mystik Dan (fifth) and Just Steel (second) – 3-year-olds who would later run 1-2 in the Southwest. Part of a dynamite lineup in Saturday’s Risen Star.

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11. Nash

Having run below expectations in two losses to Track Phantom in the Gun Runner and Lecomte, this Brad Cox-trained colt will attempt to regroup in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer in the third race on the Feb. 17 Risen Star Stakes undercard at Fair Grounds. Measured placement gives him a better chance of returning to a winning groove. Cox also gives the mount to Flavien Prat. Undoubtedly easier than Risen Star, Saturday’s allowance optional claimer is no soft race, having also drawn Tuscan Sky, Ethan Energy, and Moonlight (cross-entered in the Risen Star.) As his connections have bowed out of stakes with him for now, Nash dips a few spots.

Ryan Thompson/Coglianese Photo

12. Hades

Much went right for him in the Holy Bull Stakes. Heavily favored Fierceness broke slowly in his return, and this gelding took advantage from his inside post with a short run to the first turn in the 1 1/16-mile race to carve out slow fractions while tracked on the outside by Fierceness. Those benefits aside, he lost the lead on the second turn to the reigning 2-year-old champion and battled to get back in front. He crossed the wire two lengths ahead of Domestic Product in second, with Fierceness another 1 ½ lengths back in third. He clings to the final spot in the current Derby Dozen rankings, with results from Saturday’s Risen Star and its supporting race card at Fair Grounds likely to impact the standings next week.

* Note: With Churchill Downs Inc.’s continued ban of trainer Bob Baffert from racing at its tracks and his horses from earning Kentucky Derby qualifying points, none of his top 3-year-olds, led by Nysos and Muth, are in the Derby Dozen. Nysos would be top-ranked if eligible.