Silver Charm: As Tenacious as They Come
Original Sin Gets the Edge in Competitive Goodwood Stakes
GamblingThe 45th running of the $300,000 Goodwood Stakes drew a field of nine Saturday at Santa Anita Park. This race is a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Longines Classic Oct. 31 at Keeneland, and there have been five Goodwood winners who went on to win the Classic in the same year: Ferdinand (1987), Tiznow (2000), Pleasantly Perfect (2003), Mucho Macho Man (2013) and most recently Accelerate in 2018. This year’s edition of the 1 1/8-mile race brings together one 3-year-old and eight older horses, including last year’s winner Nevada Beach, who will be making his first start since a bid in the Saudi World Cup on Feb. 14.
Here’s a look at the field from the inside (rail) post position out:
Taif, a $1.45 million 2-year-old in training purchase in 2023, posted his first win last time out in his third start and first try over turf at Del Mar. The 5-year-old son of Arrogate trained by Bob Baffert was sidelined for over a year following his career debut and returned in January with a runner-up finish in a maiden special weight on dirt, and then was again sidelined for nearly seven months before his maiden win on Sept. 7. Emisael Jaramillo will be aboard for the first time. Vodka Vodka, a 5-year-old Stay Thirsty gelding trained by Aggie Ordonez, is a three-time winner on turf and switched back to dirt earlier this year to finish runner-up in the Santa Anita Handicap Presented by Yaamava' Resort & Casino at San Manuel. In April, Vodka Vodka won the Sunland Park Stakes at this same 1 1/8-mile distance and finished a distant seventh last time out in the Pat O’Brien Stakes at Del Mar after stumbling at the start. Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeaux will be back aboard for just his 51st mount of the year. McAfee, who is cross-entered in the Lukas Classic Stakes Saturday at Churchill Downs, will opt to run in the Goodwood per trainer George Weaver. The 4-year-old Cloud Computing colt, a half-brother to 2024 Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna, is coming off a 6 ¼-length victory at the allowance level at Saratoga going 1 1/8 miles on dirt July 3. Hector Berrios will be in the irons for the first time. Original Sin is also cross-entered in the Lukas Classic but will run in the Goodwood per trainer Brendan Walsh. The 4-year-old Curlin colt and homebred for Calumet Farm finished runner-up last time out in the 1 ¼-mile Pacific Classic Stakes. Original Sin is one of three graded stakes winners in this field and will have a jockey switch to Kazushi Kimura as Juan Hernandez, who was aboard last time out, will ride Nevada Beach.
The veteran of the group is Midnight Mammoth, a 7-year-old Midnight Lute gelding, who will be making his 46th career start and 11th at the graded level. Midnight Mammoth will have Tyler Baze back aboard. Since a runner-up finish in last year’s FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA, Mr. A. P. has made three consecutive starts over the turf as a 3-year-old. The American Pharoah ridgling was claimed by trainer Vladimir Cerin in his career debut before running second in the Juvenile just three starts later in 2025. Joel Rosario, who has been aboard his last three starts, retains the mount. Forged Steel, the first of two entrants from the Saffie Joseph Jr. barn, dominated the 1 ¼-mile Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes by 9 ½ lengths in May in his one and only start at Santa Anita. Since then, the 4-year-old Vekoma colt finished a distant fifth in the Suburban Stakes Presented by Subourbon Life at Saratoga and seventh in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar last time out. Edwin Gonzalez, who is having a breakout year with nearly $6 million in 2026 earnings, will be back aboard. Forged Steel’s stablemate Caldera, who was trained at the start of his racing career by the late D. Wayne Lukas, ships in from Palm Meadows where he recorded his last two workouts for Saffie Joseph. The 4-year-old Liam’s Map colt was sidelined for over a year and resurfaced in April to win three straight races by a combined winning margin of 12 lengths. Paco Lopez, who was aboard last time out at Colonial Downs when Caldera set a new track record for one mile on dirt, travels to remain aboard and is scheduled to ride at Santa Anita on Saturday for the first time in at least five years. Nevada Beach is the second Bob Baffert-trained entrant and is the 7-5 morning-line favorite. The 4-year-old Omaha Beach colt will be making his first start coming off a more than seven-month layoff. He is the only Grade 1 winner in the field, having annexed last year’s Goodwood Stakes by 1 ½ lengths. Juan Hernandez, who has been aboard Nevada Beach for five of his eight lifetime starts, will be in the irons for the first time since their runner-up finish in the Laffit Pincay Jr. Stakes at Santa Anita in December.
Leading Win Contenders:

With 6-1 morning line odds, Original Sin provides a lot of value for a colt who finished runner-up last time out in the Pacific Classic, a competitive race with a 109 class rating compared to the Goodwood’s 107 class rating. In the Pacific Classic, Original Sin broke dead last and was 14 lengths off the pace at the second point of call, but he made up a tremendous amount of ground going into the final turn, finishing second after passing nine competitors in the final four furlongs. Original Sin extended his average stride length and increased his average speed in the final furlong compared to the penultimate furlong, which is an incredible feat for a 1 ¼-mile (10-furlong) race. The Curlin colt shipped back to Churchill Downs following that effort on Aug. 22 and has seemingly come back well, posting two solid works including his most previous published work on Sept. 18 going five furlongs in 1:00.80. Original Sin was first trained by Brad Cox, making two bids at the maiden special weight level in 2024 before being sidelined for over 10 months and switching to the Brendan Walsh stable. Original Sin earned his first win at Churchill in his 3-year-old debut last October and has since had a wonderful 4-year-old campaign. He has three wins and a second from six starts in 2026 including a victory in the Blame Stakes over Churchill’s dirt main track on May 30, making him 2-for-2 racing nine furlongs. In July, Original Sin finished ninth by 18 lengths in the Suburban Stakes at Saratoga, which helped him go off at 22-1 odds in the Pacific Classic. It is notable that eight of the nine runners in this Goodwood field have an early or presser running style, leaving Original Sin as the lone contender with a sustained running style. Even so, Original Sin has been able to win when pressing the pace as well and is a versatile colt who should be to handle whatever pace develops in the Goodwood Stakes. With his value, ability to win at 1 1/8 miles and also considering his GPS data in the Pacific Classic last time out, Original Sin has a good chance to find his way to the Breeders’ Cup Classic with a win in the Goodwood on Saturday.

Caldera is an incredibly intriguing colt who has seemingly come into his own as a 4-year-old, after a solid 3-year-old campaign in 2025. Caldera started his career with the late D. Wayne Lukas, finishing sixth and second as a 2-year-old at the maiden special weight level at Churchill Downs and Oaklawn Park, respectively. As a 3-year-old, Caldera dominated a 1 1/16-mile maiden at Oaklawn in January 2025 by 5 ½ lengths and went on to run second by just a nose in the Sunland Park Derby in February. After being checked and stumbling at the start of the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, Caldera came back to run a narrow second in the Bathhouse Row Stakes at Oaklawn in his one and only start at the 1 1/8-mile distance. Caldera was then laid off until this April and returned as a runner in the Saffie Joseph Jr. stable. Coming off a layoff of just over a year, Caldera romped by 6 ¼ lengths in an allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park, earning a 91 Equibase Speed Figure. He followed that up with a three-length victory again at the allowance level at Colonial Downs, improving to a 101 figure. Last time out, again at the mile distance at Colonial in an allowance optional claiming race, Caldera again improved to a 107 Equibase figure for his track record performance, covering the distance in 1:32.37 under Paco Lopez. While he only won at the allowance level, that Colonial race had a 102 class rating and Caldera beat Macho Music by 2 ¾ lengths. That runner-up won the 2025 Pat Day Mile Stakes Presented by SAP by 3 ¼ lengths. It is a terrific sign that Paco Lopez is willing to travel to Santa Anita to stay aboard, and indicates that this Caldera could be his Breeders’ Cup Classic mount – if he wins. Joseph Jr. and Lopez win at 31% together in all races over the last five years and over the past year they have won nine of 16 starts together (56%) and finished in the top three at an 81% rate. Joseph has also found success shipping to Santa Anita, winning at 43% and finishing 71% in the top three over the last five years, albeit from just seven starts. While Caldera is taking a big jump in class level, this colt is a formidable contender who seems to be at the top of his game and brings solid value with 5-1 morning-line odds.
Mr. A. P. is another contender who brings a lot of value to this race, especially for a ridgling who finished runner-up in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The lone 3-year-old in this field was claimed for $150,000 in his career debut at Del Mar last July. He went on to run second by just three-quarters of a length in his first start for trainer Vladimir Cerin and the new silks before taking a dirt route race at Santa Anita in October. In his next start, he was sent off at odds of 21-1 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and Mr. A. P. made a valiant effort to lose to undefeated Ted Noffey by just a length while earning a 106 Equibase Speed Figure. Mr. A. P. was then sidelined all the way until mid-July and oddly enough returned as a 3-year-old by switching to turf. In his turf debut in the Oceanside Handicap at Del Mar, Mr. A. P. finished third behind Proletariat, who went on to win the Caesars Sportsbook Del Mar Derby in his next start. Following the Oceanside, Mr. A. P. won his first race on turf in an allowance optional claiming race at Del Mar and then shipped to Kentucky Downs in September to run in the Gun Runner Stakes. Mr. A. P. finished ninth in the Gun Runner, which is excusable as Kentucky Downs is a course that horses either love or hate. Nonetheless, Mr. A. P. came out of the race in good form and came back to his home track of Santa Anita to post a bullet five-furlong work in a blistering 58.80 on Sept. 20. Mr. A. P. has never run out of the exacta on dirt and has proven he could compete with the best of the best 2-year-olds in 2025. His overall form combined with his affinity for the Santa Anita dirt means that Mr. A. P. could surprise at a nice price to complete the trifecta.
The rest of the field with their best Equibase Speed Figures in similar races, is Taif (96), Vodka Vodka (105), McAfee (107), Midnight Mammoth (111), Forged Steel (107), and Nevada Beach (107).
Top Selections in Preference Order: