This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2026 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not as strong as they previously were. In the eighth edition of this blog for the 2026 run for the roses, the focus is on what has changed since the previous edition on March 31.

HEATING UP

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1. Further Ado

After what I would characterize as a slightly disappointing start to his 3-year-old campaign – a runner-up finish in the ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby March 7 – Further Ado turned on the afterburners in the Keeneland stretch April 4 in the $1.25 million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes on his way to an 11-length romp. He completed the final quarter-mile in :25.20 to earn a career-best 106 Beyer Speed Figure (the best for any 3-year-old this year) and a 107 Equibase Speed Figure, also a personal best. The Gun Runner colt clearly relishes the main track at Keeneland, where he won a maiden race as a 2-year-old by 20 lengths, but he also owns a win on the main track at Churchill Downs in last fall’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. He’s put together a consistent four-race string of three wins and the second at Tampa Bay Downs, which came following a three-month layoff and looks better after Tampa Bay Derby winner The Puma finished a stout second to Commandment in the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa March 31. Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Brad Cox should have Further Ado well-positioned to fire a big one in his third start of the year. There is a chance he could react negatively to a career-best race, but he’s the fastest horse in the field, has tactical speed, and is bred to relish the 1 ¼-mile distance of the Kentucky Derby.

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2. So Happy

The Santa Anita Derby winner was the subject of this week’s Kentucky Derby Prospect Profile and he could be overlooked on May 2 because he doesn’t have a classic pedigree ... he’s sired by champion sprinter Runhappy. While distance limitations are a possibility – they are for nearly all of the Kentucky Derby entrants while trying 1 ¼ miles for the first time – So Happy looked very strong when putting away San Felipe Stakes Presented by DK Horse winner Potente in the stretch of the April 4 $500,000 Santa Anita Derby. He finished with a final eighth of a mile in :12.85 and a final quarter-mile in :25.38 to prevail by 2 ¾ lengths and earn a career-top 100 Beyer Speed Figure. He improved significantly in his second try navigating two turns after fading to third in the San Felipe, and he settled nicely in the early going under Mike Smith in the Santa Anita Derby before launching his winning rally. So Happy showed the ability to track a fast pace and still finish well and he beat a quality 3-year-old in Potente. I think he’ll be right in the mix entering the long Churchill stretch with a shot to win on Derby day.

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3. Albus

Albus made his stakes debut a memorable one in the $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino April 4 at Aqueduct, closing from eighth in the field of 12 to win by 1 ¼ lengths and punch his ticket to the 2026 Kentucky Derby. He entered the Wood Memorial off a 6 ¾-length maiden win Feb. 27 at Tampa Bay Downs and passed the class test while also stretching out to 1 1/8 miles for trainer Riley Mott. I thought there was a sizable gap between my top two (Further Ado and So Happy) this week and Albus, however, when projecting to the Kentucky Derby May 2 at Churchill Downs. None of the three betting favorites in the Wood Memorial ran up to expectations and Albus did not finish fast while rallying from far back despite an easy pace, completing his final three-eighths of a mile in :38.78 and final quarter-mile in :26.03. He’ll need to finish much faster to be a factor in the Derby and the speed figures (89 Equibase, 83 Beyer) indicate it would take a massive leap forward to be a real win threat May 2 at Churchill. Albus has secured his spot in the starting gate, however, and four Derby winners at 50-1 odds or more since 2005 prove that anything can happen.

Also Eligible: Distant Blue Grass Stakes runner-up Ottinho and Wood Memorial Stakes second-place finisher Right to Party both earned their way into the Kentucky Derby field thanks to those efforts. Neither looks fast enough to be a real threat to win the first jewel of the Triple Crown, but both are off-the-pace runners who could pass tiring horses late. ... Of the runners-up, I prefer Santa Anita Derby second Potente, who looks like he’ll be the lone Kentucky Derby starter for six-time Derby winner Bob Baffert. A well-bred colt by perennial leading sire Into Mischief, Potente was much better when rallying from off the pace in the San Felipe Stakes Presented by DK Horse. He dueled for the lead in the Santa Anita Derby and looked a little gassed in the stretch. Potente could be a nice longshot in the Kentucky Derby with a change back to the San Felipe tactics.

COOLING DOWN

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1. Great White

The Toyota Blue Grass Stakes April 4 at Keeneland was a key challenge for Great White, who was competing on a dirt track for the first time against the best field he’d faced to date. The Volatile gelding had stalked or closed from off the pace in his three previous starts, but in the Blue Grass he went straight to the front and set the pace. Whether it was the surface, the competition level, or the confounding tactics, Great White was headed the wrong way in the Keeneland stretch and finished 22 ¼ lengths behind winner Further Ado while fifth of seven. He earned the worst Equibase Speed Figure of his career, 10 points lower than 84 he earned in a debut win, and he will not qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Great White remains a promising prospect, and future races should tell us more about the cause of the disappointing Blue Grass result.

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2. Intrepido

Last year’s American Pharoah Stakes Presented by DK Horse winner, Intrepido was second by three-quarters of a length in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in his 3-year-old bow. It was a promising beginning to 2026 in his first start in more than three months, but the bay colt took a step back in the Santa Anita Derby April 4 at Santa Anita Park. Intrepido launched a middle move to make up some ground on the leaders but flattened out in the stretch while finishing 10 lengths behind winner So Happy in fourth place. It looks like he will need three or four defections, which is possible, between now and the Kentucky Derby to sneak into the field and would need a sharp reversal in form to be competitive. 

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3. Talk to Me Jimmy

Talk to Me Jimmy entered the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino April 4 at Aqueduct off back-to-back dominant wins, highlighted by an 11-length runaway in the 1 1/8-mile Withers Stakes Feb 6. The Withers came at the same track and distance as the Wood Memorial and Talk to Me Jimmy was the third betting choice in the Wood’s 12-horse field, but after setting the pace in his two previous starts the Modernist colt was unable to dictate the tempo as Napoleon Solo went right to the front. He was wide throughout and fought into the stretch of the Wood Memorial before fading late and finishing eighth, beaten by 4 ½ lengths. Talk to Me Jimmy did not accrue enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby.

Of note: Iron Honor opened his career with back-to-back wins, including a one-length win in the Gotham Stakes in his stakes debut and initial foray on the Kentucky Derby trail, but he will need at least one defection to make the 20-horse Derby field after finishing seventh as the favorite in the Wood Memorial Stakes April 4 at Aqueduct. If he makes it into the race, Iron Honor would need a bounce-back effort after earning a career-low 82 Equibase Speed Figure in the Wood. ... Reagan’s Honor made his stakes debut in the Blue Grass Stakes April 4 at Keeneland after a pair of eye-catching wins at Fair Grounds that earned big speed figures. The Honor A. P. colt finished sixth of seven in as the second betting choice in a race dominated by favored Further Ado. Reagan’s Honor clearly has natural ability so it will be interesting to see where he makes his next start.