BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his inaugural Derby Dozen for 2026, with a look at his leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 2.

The Road to the 152^nd Kentucky Derby is ready to hit the next level as January moves past the midway point. Last week, Golden Tempo jumped on the Derby trail with a win in the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds. No qualifying points preps are scheduled for the upcoming weekend, but two important ones are set for Jan. 31: the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park and the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

Check out America’s Best Racing’s Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

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1. Ted Noffey

Only two FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA winners have returned to experience Kentucky Derby glory six months later at Churchill Downs: Street Sense (2006-07) and Nyquist (2015-16). Spendthrift Farm’s Ted Noffey appears better positioned than most to be the third horse to pull off this elusive double. The Todd Pletcher trainee recorded his first work of 2025 in breezing three furlongs Jan. 16 in :37.01 at Palm Beach Downs, aiming for the Feb. 28 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

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2. Further Ado

Spendthrift Farm sponsors Derby Dozen, but Ted Noffey and Further Ado are 1-2 in this space on their merits. After two so-so sprints at Saratoga Race Course, Further Ado leaped forward on a stretch out in blitzing maidens over 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland by 20 lengths Oct. 10. The Brad Cox trainee then took the Nov. 29 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs over the same distance, though he was more workmanlike, a hard-pressed 1 ¾-length victor. His speed figures dipped, but he delivered, leaving him 2-for-2 in routes.

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3. Commandment

Bet down to 1-2 favoritism in the one-mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes Jan. 3 at Gulfstream Park after a second-out seven-furlong maiden score in the fall at Churchill, Commandment wowed, admittedly outside of graded company. He settled kindly, split horses at the head of the lane, and drew off under a hand ride by 6 ¾ lengths. He has yet to work since that start, but with his connections considering the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth down the road for his next start, trainer Brad Cox has a bit of time to give him a workout pause.

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4. Paladin

Paladin invites easy comparison to Sierra Leone, another son of Gun Runner trained by Chad Brown for many of the same owners. Sierra Leone came up just short in the 2023 Remsen Stakes, finishing second to Dornoch, before going on to a runner-up finish in the 2024 Kentucky Derby, a victory in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic that fall, and a return trip to the Classic for runner-up honors in 2025. Paladin landed the 2025 Remsen with a better trip than runner-up Renegade and is now 2-for-2 following a debut win via disqualification.

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5. Brant

Brant was excellent last year as a juvenile, winning two sprints at Del Mar, including the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity, before running third behind Ted Noffey and the sidelined Mr. A. P.  in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Those accomplishments led him to be second on my Eclipse Award ballot behind Ted Noffey. As talented as he is, his fade in the Juvenile after racing clear on the lead raises concerns about his staying power at the Derby distance of 1 ¼ miles, though the Juvenile was only his first route.

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6. Litmus Test

A cut below the top 2-year-olds in the country during the fall, he broke through with a graded stakes triumph in taking the Los Alamitos Futurity in December. He saved ground through the first turn as others raced wide, then caught the leader and eventual third-place finisher Provenance before outlasting runner-up Blacksmith. The latter is now a 0-for-4 maiden after a third-place finish in a follow-up start.

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7. Incredibolt

As a late-running winner of the Oct. 26 Street Sense Stakes in his first route, his form compares to that of 2025 Derby winner Sovereignty going into his 3-year-old season. He was not quite as eye-catching in taking the Street Sense as Sovereignty was, but it was a nice performance. His 1 ¾-length stakes triumph, coupled with an earlier maiden win in his second career start, suggests he is a colt with a bright future and an affinity for Churchill Downs.

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8. Golden Tempo

The step up from maiden to stakes company can be a humbling experience for a lightly raced horse, particularly over a new distance. But Golden Tempo passed the test in the Jan. 17 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds by outkicking stablemate Mesquite in just his second career outing and first route. From the back of the pack, he picked off the fatigued leaders on the second turn and through the stretch. The win earned him just an 84 Equibase Speed Figure and an 81 Beyer Speed Figure.

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9. Strategic Risk

He turned the corner after being given the opportunity to run 1 1/16 miles on dirt, romping by nine lengths in the Nov. 29 Florida Thoroughbred Breeders’ and Owners’ Association Florida Sire In Reality Stakes at Gulfstream Park and then taking the open Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park earlier this month by 4 ½ lengths. He still must prove his class in graded company – starts in such races as a juvenile last year resulted in a fourth in the Sanford Stakes and a sixth in the With Anticipation Stakes – though neither was a dirt route.

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10. Nearly

As promising as his 9 ¼-length second-out maiden victory was, his five-length first-level allowance optional claiming score Jan. 2 at Gulfstream Park was even better. Racing against far better opposition over seven furlongs, he was sideswiped by favored Confessional at the start, forcing him to play catch-up from last in the field of four. He caught Confessional leaving the second turn and overwhelmed him in the stretch, drawing away late. Set for his first two-turn and stakes test in the Jan. 31 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream.

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11. Desert Gate

One of California’s top 2-year-olds of 2025, he missed the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile due to a hock infection. He recently outbreezed stakes-winning Getaway Car, a 4-year-old, in a joint six-furlong workout timed in 1:12:20 at Santa Anita Park Jan. 17 as he readies for a return. A winner of his first two starts last year, including the Best Pal Stakes at Del Mar, he would finish 2025 with runner-up finishes behind Brant and Intrepido in the Del Mar Futurity and American Pharoah Stakes Presented by DK Horse, respectively.

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12. So Happy

A winner on debut going 6 ½ furlongs at Del Mar at 38-1 odds, he backed up that performance by outrunning favored Buetane to take the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes Jan. 10 at Santa Anita in quick time. Being by 2015 champion male sprinter Runhappy out of a mare whose two wins came in sprints, his bloodlines point to him being a one-turn specialist, but his lengthy stride gives hope he may outrun his pedigree.