A Day in the Life of a Kentucky Derby Horse
Sandman, Journalism, and Sovereignty (left to right) are three leading contenders entered in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve May 3 at Churchill Downs. (Eclipse Sportswire)
After an exciting several months of preparation, horse racing’s biggest moment is only days away, as the best 3-year-old Thoroughbreds are set to compete May 3 in the $5 million Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve at Churchill Downs.
The Kentucky Derby remains the one horse race that transcends the sport and becomes an international event, bringing approximately 150,000 spectators to the iconic racetrack in Louisville and attracting tens of millions of viewers worldwide. It is the first leg of U.S. Thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown, a very difficult three-race series followed by the Preakness Stakes May 17 and the Belmont Stakes June 7 that has only been swept by 13 horses.
Winning the Kentucky Derby itself is for most owners, trainers, and jockeys the biggest prize in horse racing. The 1 ¼-mile race is restricted to 3-year-olds, making it a one-time-only goal, and while the purse has been raised in recent years, becoming a part of history as a Derby winner brings its own prestige. Kentucky Derby entrants have already gained experience by starting in one or more qualifying prep races, but once that 20-horse starting gate opens in the early evening, a new test awaits. Every of them will face the challenge of competing against a field that’s larger than any they’ve ever faced before plus trying a distance longer than in any of their prior races and in front of a raucous crowd to boot. It’s these unique variables that justify the Derby’s nickname as the “most exciting two minutes in sports.”
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Recent Kentucky Derbys have certainly lived up to that reputation. The past three have seen double-digit odds horses win under Churchill Downs’ iconic Twin Spires, including the second-biggest longshot in the race’s history back in 2022. Last year’s Derby resulted in a thrilling three-horse photo finish, with a nose separating winner Mystik Dan from runner-up Sierra Leone and the same margin between second and third.
What will this year’s 151st Kentucky Derby bring? A competitive field is lined up featuring horses connected to some of the biggest names in the sport as well as contenders coming from less heralded origins. The Derby will be showcased on NBC Sports, which will broadcast the race live during a five-hour program from 2:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC and also stream it on Peacock. The network will also present coverage earlier Saturday from Churchill Downs on USA Network and Peacock from noon to 2:30 p.m. ET. Post time for the Kentucky Derby is set for 6 :57 p.m. ET.
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Read on for information about all of the Kentucky Derby contenders.
BENOIT photo
1. Citizen Bull (20-1 morning-line odds)
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Career record: 6 starts – 4 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $1,451,000
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 107
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 71.25
Pedigree: Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor
Color: Bay
Running style: Pacesetter
Analysis: Unlike the majority of horses in this year’s Kentucky Derby field that are set on a forward trajectory in improvement, Citizen Bull needs a major rebound in order to win on May 3. The Bob Baffert-trained colt earned champion 2-year-old male honors for 2024 and kept his status as a leading Kentucky Derby contender early this year by displaying his one elite talent: speed. He won last November’s FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA, held at 1 1/16 miles, in gate-to-wire fashion and did the same in his one-mile 2025 debut, the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. However, in his second start of the year and his first at 1 1/8 miles, Citizen Bull could not establish himself early and control the pace in the Santa Anita Derby, and he tired late to finish fourth of five runners and 9 ¾ lengths behind winner Journalism. That effort helped to bolster opinions that the colt is a “need-the-lead” type who can only win if he is able to set an easy pace – a task that will be very difficult to do in the Kentucky Derby with several other speed horses entered. Baffert said that he believed Citizen Bull was not cranked up to top ability coming into the Santa Anita Derby and he expects a better performance at Churchill Downs. Even if the champ somehow is able to wrest control of the pace from stablemate Rodriguez and others, his lack of punch going 1 1/8 miles in his lead-in race is concerning as he tries to go an eighth of a mile longer in the Derby. And what’s more, Citizen Bull drew the inside post position in the 20-horse field, which has not produced a Kentucky Derby winner since Ferdinand in 1986. In his final California workout, Citizen Bull started his breeze rating behind a workmate and then rallying past him, and it will be interesting to see if Garcia and Baffert employ a stalking strategy with the colt considering the draw.
Bet Citizen Bull in the Kentucky Derby.
Ryan Thompson/Coglianese Photo
2. Neoequos (30-1)
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Owners: C2 Racing Stable, Ian Parsard, Shining Stables, and Stefania Farms
Career record: 7 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 2 thirds
Career earnings: $291,050
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 100
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 40
Pedigree: Neolithic – Bold Birdie, by Birdstone
Color: Bay
Running style: Press the pace
Analysis: Neoequos gained entry into the Kentucky Derby field on April 25 when the connections of Built withdrew that contender. The colt will run on May 3 coming in off of a pair of third-place finishes in Florida prep races: the 1 1/16-mile Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes and the 1 1/8-mile Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa. Neoequos dueled for the lead in both races and tired late without throwing in the towel, and if he runs in the Derby a similar effort would be a supreme achievement but still probably result in an off-the-board finish. He started in five straight sprint races before stretching out to two turns in the pair of Florida Kentucky Derby preps and appears best suited to distances up to a mile rather than the Derby’s classic mile-and-a-quarter assignment.
Bet Neoequos in the Kentucky Derby.
Eclipse Sportswire
3. Final Gambit (30-1)
Jockey: Luan Machado
Trainer: Brad Cox
Owner: Juddmonte
Career record: 4 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 1 third
Career earnings: $520,639
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 96
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 100
Pedigree: Not This Time – Pachinko, by Tapit
Color: Gray or roan
Running style: Closer
Analysis: The Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park, held on an all-weather surface, has been a productive prep for the Kentucky Derby in recent years – 2022 upset winner Rich Strike and 2023 runner-up Two Phil’s both came out of the race to shine under the Twin Spires. Final Gambit is an interesting contender for this year’s Derby as, unlike the two runners mentioned above, he’ll enter the race without a prior start on a dirt track. He unleashed a visually impressive closing kick to win the 1 1/8-mile Jeff Ruby by 3 ½ lengths, which came after he was bumped and bothered at the start and raced at the back of the 12-horse field for the first half-mile. Final Gambit’s three other starts have come on Turfway’s all-weather track (two) and on turf at Churchill Downs. This colt is by young sire Not This Time, who has success with runners on turf and dirt with one of his best on the latter surface being 2022 champion 3-year-old male and Kentucky Derby runner-up Epicenter. Overall, Final Gambit offers appeal as a horse to consider using in Kentucky Derby exotic wagers such as the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta. If he handles the surface switch – and it’s a big if – this long-winded runner could make up a lot of late ground and light up the tote board with an in-the-money finish.
Bet Final Gambit in the Kentucky Derby.
Eclipse Sportswire
4. Rodriguez (12-1)
Jockey: Mike Smith
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Career record: 5 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $522,800
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 111
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 121.25
Pedigree: Authentic – Cayala, by Cherokee Run
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Pacesetter/press the pace
Analysis: Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who shares the all-time record for Kentucky Derby wins by a trainer with six, returns to the Derby after a three-year absence with two starters, and this talented and still improving colt gives Baffert his best chance to earn a seventh victory. After knocking heads with several of the best racehorses in Southern California, where Baffert is based, Rodriguez was shipped to New York for a final Derby prep in the 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino, and he was also paired up with two-time Kentucky Derby-winning jockey Mike Smith for the first time. The result? A front-running, 3 ½-length win with a good speed figure. Rodriguez will match up again with Journalism and Citizen Bull on May 3, both of whom defeated him handily in California, but as noted above this colt is on the upswing. If he moves forward again in the Kentucky Derby, he’s got a chance at posting a mild upset. He should be one of several horses vying for the early lead in Derby 151, and it would not be a surprise to see Mike Smith be bold on Rodriguez and take it to this field (including speedy stablemate Citizen Bull, who drew the rail post position) from the outset.
Bet Rodriguez in the Kentucky Derby.
Eclipse Sportswire
5. American Promise (30-1)
Jockey: Nik Juarez
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Owner: BC Stables
Career record: 9 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 1 third
Career earnings: $444,874
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 102
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 55
Pedigree: Justify – Tapella, by Tapit
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Press the pace
Analysis: This physically imposing son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify comes into the Kentucky Derby off of a dominant win in the Virginia Derby that should give his backers confidence that he’s finally reaching his potential. American Promise had disappointed in two prior Derby preps, finishing sixth (and disqualified to seventh) in the Southwest Stakes and then a fading fifth in the Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes. He responded to an aggressive ride by first-time jockey Nik Juarez to engage pacesetter Getaway Car early in the 1 1/8-mile, one-turn Virginia Derby and then powered clear in the stretch to win by 7 ¾ lengths over Render Judgment. American Promise has been training well since that win and Juarez keeps the mount for the Kentucky Derby, which will be his first start in the race. He’s got a good pedigree for handling a mile and a quarter and legendary Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas has entered him in high-quality races in each of his nine starts, which are the most in this year’s Kentucky Derby field. American Promise gives “the Coach” an outside chance at picking up his fifth win in the Derby.
Bet American Promise in the Kentucky Derby.
Eclipse Sportswire
6. Admire Daytona (30-1)
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
Trainer: Yukihiro Kato
Owner: Junko Kondo
Career record: 6 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $672,047
Top Equibase Speed Figure: n/a
Pedigree: Drefong – Ice Pastel, by Shackleford
Color: Bay
Running style: Pacesetter
Analysis: While Luxor Café earned a spot in the Kentucky Derby by earning the most points in Churchill Downs’ Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby race series, this Japanese-bred and Japan-based colt secured his spot by earning 100 points in Churchill’s Euro/Mideast Road to the Kentucky Derby series with a hard-fought nose win in the United Arab Emirates Derby Sponsored by Jumeirah. Breaking from the inside post position, Admire Daytona moved up on the first turn to duel for the lead in that 1 3/16-mile race and he responded to multiple challenges through the far turn and into the stretch, holding off one final charge from Heart of Honor to prevail. Now the challenge becomes, can Admire Daytona improve off of that taxing race after shipping halfway around the world? He won once in five starts before the UAE Derby and competed against Luxor Café twice, losing by a nose to him last November and then by 3 ¼ lengths when fourth in the one-mile Hyacinth Stakes in February. International star jockey Christophe Lemaire rode this colt in the UAE Derby and also in three earlier starts, including a stakes win in Japan earlier this year. Look for the son of champion sprinter Drefong to be part of the early pace, but it would be a surprise to hear his name called when the field hits the homestretch.
Bet Admire Daytona in the Kentucky Derby.
Japan Racing Association
7. Luxor Café (15-1)
Jockey: João Moreira
Trainer: Noriyuki Hori
Owner: Koichi Nishikawa
Career record: 6 starts – 4 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $379,057
Top Equibase Speed Figure: n/a
Pedigree: American Pharoah – Mary’s Follies, by More Than Ready
Color: Bay
Running style: Press the pace/stalker
Analysis: Horses based in Japan had a 0-for-7 record in the Kentucky Derby prior to last year, and none of the seven starters came close to finishing in the top three with the best efforts a pair of sixth-place finishes in 2019 and 2023. That all changed in 2024, however, as previously undefeated Forever Young came two noses shy of giving Japan its first Derby win, his third-place finish one of several standout performances on the international stage. (T O Password also finished fifth last year.) Luxor Café is a definite contender to at least equal Forever Young’s finish last year and perhaps do even better. He comes into the Derby on a four-race win streak, including three stakes victories that clinched his spot in the May 3 classic as the leader in Churchill Downs’ Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby division. Luxor Café’s final prep in the 1 1/8-mile Fukuryu Stakes was especially impressive, as he swept into contention entering the far turn and then opened up on the field in early stretch en route to a five-length win under first-time jockey João Moreira. Moreira, one of the top riders in Hong Kong, retains the mount for the Kentucky Derby, and his lack of experience in the race plus the lower caliber of opposition Luxor Café has been competing against are the two main question marks. But make no mistake, this son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah is bred for the 1 ¼-mile distance and his races in Japan ace the “eye test” for a potential Kentucky Derby winner.
Bet Luxor Café in the Kentucky Derby.
BENOIT photo
8. Journalism (3-1)
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Career record: 5 starts – 4 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $638,880
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 110
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 122.5
Pedigree: Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: Journalism is a deserved morning-line favorite for the Kentucky Derby because he simply has fewer holes on his résumé than any other contender. He’s won three consecutive stakes races in a row in California, all held around two turns, and overcame some adversity midway through his final prep, the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby, to close powerfully and win by three-quarters of a length. His speed figures are among the best in the 2025 Derby field, and his pedigree is very well-suited to racing a mile and a quarter. Perhaps best of all, this colt has shown the ability to respond well to jockey Umberto Rispoli’s handling which should enable him to secure a prime position through the first mile or so in the Kentucky Derby behind what projects to be a fast pace set by several front-runners but ahead of the deep closers. If there’s any concern, it’s that Journalism has been competing against small fields in California, but truthfully it’s a question mark as to how any Kentucky Derby entrant will handle the unique conditions of this race. The evidence at hand suggests that this colt is very professional and brings his ‘A’ game every time out. Doing so again should put him in the win discussion come May 3.
Bet Journalism in the Kentucky Derby.
Eclipse Sportswire
9. Burnham Square (12-1)
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Owner: Whitham Thoroughbreds
Career record: 6 starts – 3 wins – 1 second – 1 third
Career earnings: $977,755
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 104
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 130
Pedigree: Liam’s Map – Linda, by Scat Daddy
Color: Bay
Running style: Closer
Analysis: Burnham Square is a solid middle-tier Kentucky Derby contender who has yet to run a bad race through six starts. He prefers to rally from near the back of the pack and should get plenty of early pace to run at May 3. After a good winter season racing in Florida, Burnham Square won his final prep for the Derby, the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes held at 1 1/8 miles, by a nose after closing from last in a seven-horse field. The final time for the Blue Grass was slow; however, based on the race flow he still earned speed figures that are competitive with the leading Kentucky Derby contenders. Two more positives: he’s bred to handle this race’s mile-and-a-quarter distance and he’ll be ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr., one of Churchill Downs’ leading jockeys who just won the Kentucky Derby a year ago aboard Mystik Dan. He profiles as one of the best closers in the race and with a good trip under Hernandez could be right in contention with a chance to win in the homestretch.
Bet Burnham Square in the Kentucky Derby.
Coglianese Photos/Gulfstream Park
10. Grande (20-1)
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Repole Stable
Career record: 3 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $228,200
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 106
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 50
Pedigree: Curlin – Journey Home, by War Front
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: Grande figures to pick up some supporters looking for a middle-tier longshot contender during the week leading up to the Kentucky Derby as he’s lightly raced with only three career starts and has loads of untapped potential. The Curlin colt ran very well in his stakes debut, the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino, but was compromised by a wide trip and settled for second in the 1 1/8-mile race, 3 ½ lengths behind front-running winner Rodriguez. Grande is bred to improve with longer distances, and after missing the Wood, Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez returns to the saddle having piloted Grande in his first two career starts. Velazquez has won three Kentucky Derbys, one of them (Always Dreaming, 2017) for fellow Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. He should have Grande positioned in the middle rank of horses through the first mile or so in the Kentucky Derby, and he along with the rest of the colt’s connections will be hoping for a career-best effort in his fourth start in order to post an upset victory.
Bet Grande in the Kentucky Derby.
Coady Media
11. Flying Mohawk (30-1)
Jockey: Joseph Ramos
Trainer: Whit Beckman
Owners: Two Eight Racing, Berry Family Racing, and Kaleta Racing
Career record: 6 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $295,800
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 97
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 50
Pedigree: Karakontie – Bonbons Fleur, by Twirling Candy
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Closer
Analysis: Here’s a longshot Kentucky Derby candidate who earned his way into the field by finishing second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks held on Turfway Park’s all-weather surface. In that 1 1/8-mile race, Flying Mohawk closed from 11th of 12 horses to end up 3 ½ lengths behind winner Final Gambit, who in turn rallied from last. The race shape of the Jeff Ruby obviously turned out to benefit closers and played out like a lot of races on Turfway’s all-weather track (and on turf) do, with horses sweeping into contention from well off the pace. Like Final Gambit, this colt has not made a start on a dirt track and his pedigree is questionable for handling it. His future looks bright and could include multiple stakes wins, but they’ll probably be on turf, a surface on which he posted back-to-back, open-length victories prior to his start in the Jeff Ruby. If we hear Flying Mohawk’s name called in the Kentucky Derby, it will be very late in the stretch run along with the names of several other closers and will indicate a pace meltdown of epic proportions.
Bet Flying Mohawk in the Kentucky Derby.
Coady Media
12. East Avenue (20-1)
Jockey: Manny Franco
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Owner: Godolphin
Career record: 5 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $654,395
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 104
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 60
Pedigree: Medaglia d’Oro – Dance Music, by Ghostzapper
Color: Bay
Running style: Pacesetter
Analysis: Supporters of this talented colt had to be encouraged by a much-improved performance in his second 2025 start, as he nearly won the 1 1/8-mile Toyota Blue Grass Stakes in gate-to-wire fashion, opening up a clear lead and battling gamely in the stretch before losing to Burnham Square by a nose. East Avenue had established himself as one of the best juvenile runners last fall with a pair of dominant wins prior to a “mulligan” effort in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA, in which he nearly fell to his knees at the start and lost all chance. He had no excuse whatsoever in his first start this year, though, when he finished 10th of 12 in the 1 1/8-mile Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes. So his return to top form in the Blue Grass gives East Avenue an outside chance at winning the Kentucky Derby, and he should at the very least be a part of what should be an honest pace up front. He’s one of the best-bred members of this year’s field as a half-brother (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) to 2023 Horse of the Year Cody’s Wish.
Bet East Avenue in the Kentucky Derby.
Coady Media
13. Publisher (20-1)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Owners: Gus King and the Estate of Brereton Jones
Career record: 7 starts – 0 wins – 2 seconds – 3 thirds
Career earnings: $407,756
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 100
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 60
Pedigree: American Pharoah – Indian Pride, by Proud Citizen
Color: Bay
Running style: Closer
Analysis: A maiden – a horse seeking its first win – has not won the Kentucky Derby since 1933, and only three have done so in the race’s 150-year history. Will this year bring a fourth? Publisher has made seven starts entering the May 3 classic, with only one finish worse than fourth. That happened when he was jostled by American Promise in the Southwest Stakes and finished seventh (moved up to sixth after that foe was disqualified). His lead-in race to the Kentucky Derby stands as the best of his career to date, as he followed fellow closer Sandman through the stretch to finish second by 2 ½ lengths in the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby. The problem is, however, that Publisher has not really come close to winning yet: his closest margin of defeat is 1 ½ lengths and that came back in December when he was runner-up to American Promise in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race. It’s hard to see Publisher breaking through in the Kentucky Derby and giving Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen his long-sought first win in the race. On the other hand, the pace in the Derby should be fast enough to set this son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah up for a closing rally that could result in an in-the-money finish at high odds.
Bet Publisher in the Kentucky Derby.
Lou Hodges, Jr. /Hodges Photography
14. Tiztastic (20-1)
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Owners: Winchell Thoroughbreds, Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, and Derrick Smith
Career record: 8 starts – 3 wins – 1 second – 2 thirds
Career earnings: $1,549,800
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 99
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 119
Pedigree: Tiz the Law – Keesha, by Tapit
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Closer
Analysis: After four consecutive starts in Kentucky Derby preps dating to last fall without a win, Tiztastic secured his reservations for the first Saturday in May with a rallying victory in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby. He benefitted from a skillful ride from Hall of Fame jockey Joel Rosario, who saved ground on his mount into the far turn of the 1 3/16-mile race and then urged him to take over and draw away by 2 ½ lengths. That was by far Tiztastic’s best effort in a Derby prep, and his first win since taking two turf route races late last summer. He’ll have to improve to have a chance at upsetting the Kentucky Derby, but on the positive side this colt is bred to run all day and he should get a fast pace to run into. If you hear his name called by the track announcer, it will be midway through the homestretch or even later, possibly in tandem with trainer Steve Asmussen’s other come-from-behind Kentucky Derby entrant, Publisher.
Bet Tiztastic in the Kentucky Derby.
Coady Media
15. Render Judgment (30-1)
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Owners: Baccari Racing Stable, Dream Walkin Farms, MJM Racing, and Rocket Ship Racing
Career record: 7 starts – 1 win – 2 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $250,672
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 98
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 39
Pedigree: Blame – Barbara Gordon, by Commissioner
Color: Bay
Running style: Closer
Analysis: This colt trained by 2024 Kentucky Derby-winning conditioner Ken McPeek gained entry into the main 20-horse field for the Kentucky Derby after Tappan Street was withdrawn due to injury April 26. He earned qualifying points for the May 3 classic by finishing in the top five four times in five prep races. Through seven career starts, he profiles as a late runner who at his best could finish in the top half of the Kentucky Derby’s projected 20 starters, given that his best finish in a prep came when second by 7 ¾ lengths to American Promise in the 1 1/8-mile Virginia Derby. Overall, his margins of defeat in Derby preps (ranging from four lengths to 19 lengths) and speed figures place him near the bottom of this year’s field, and several horses with similar come-from-behind running styles such as Sandman, Sovereignty, and Burnham Square are much more accomplished.
Bet Render Judgment in the Kentucky Derby.
Coady Media
16. Coal Battle (30-1)
Jockey: Juan Vargas
Trainer: Lonnie Briley
Owner: Norman Stables
Career record: 8 starts – 5 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $1,188,875
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 104
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 95
Pedigree: Coal Front – Wolfblade, by Midshipman
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: One of the most enjoyable aspects of assembling up to 20 horses for the world’s most famous race is that most every year there is at least one that comes from, well, not “out of nowhere,” but from a location that’s rarely in the national spotlight. Often, these horses have working-class connections who are thrilled to be competing for a spot in the history books at the Kentucky Derby and possess unique and inspirational backstories. Just as often it seems, the horses themselves don’t have much of a chance at winning the race … although as Rich Strike proved three years ago, anything can happen in the Kentucky Derby. This year’s so-called Cinderella carries solid credentials, however, as Coal Battle comes into the Kentucky Derby off of a third-place finish in the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby preceded by a win in the Rebel Stakes at 1 1/16 miles. Despite his 5-for-6 record on dirt, Coal Battle’s pedigree suggests that racing an extra eighth of a mile in the Kentucky Derby will be a challenge, and his overall speed figures are a cut below his main rivals. That said, this is a competitive and versatile racehorse who figures to show up with a typically strong effort in the Kentucky Derby. Hitting the board on May 3 would send his connections sky-high, and warm the hearts of horse racing fans as well.
Bet Coal Battle in the Kentucky Derby.
Eclipse Sportswire
17. Sandman (6-1)
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Trainer: Mark Casse
Owners: D. J. Stable, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds, and CJ Stables
Career record: 8 starts – 3 wins – 1 second – 2 thirds
Career earnings: $1,254,595
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 104
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 129
Pedigree: Tapit – Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor
Color: Gray or roan
Running style: Closer
Analysis: If the early pace in this year’s Kentucky Derby turns out be as fast, look for this flashy gray colt to be rolling through the stretch late. After showing tantalizing potential, Sandman finally put it all together in his final Derby prep, rallying from eighth in a nine-horse field to win the Arkansas Derby by 2 ½ lengths. That race was his first try at 1 1/8 miles, and Sandman validated trainer Mark Casse’s expectations that added distance would benefit him, although he still showed some inexperience when veering out after he took the lead. Now, he’ll get another eighth of a mile to work with in the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby, and his pedigree suggests that he could run even better. One caution flag: as a deep closer, Sandman will have to navigate racing through a crowd of tiring horses as he rallies and if he gets blocked (or zig-zags again) he could lose momentum. As noted above, he’ll need a solid pace to close into in order to win the Kentucky Derby, which should set him up perfectly to make his patented late run. It will be interesting to see if jockey Jose Ortiz, who rode Sandman in the Arkansas Derby, “pushes the button” on him a little earlier than usual and gives him some extra time to get into gear just in case some obstacles arise in a very large field.
Bet Sandman in the Kentucky Derby.
Sonny Hughes/Coglianese Photos
18. Sovereignty (5-1)
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Trainer: Bill Mott
Owner: Godolphin
Career record: 5 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $572,800
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 99
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 110
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini
Color: Bay
Running style: Closer
Analysis: Sovereignty has been rated as one of the leading contenders for Kentucky Derby 151 ever since he posted a dominant victory in the Street Sense Stakes held at Churchill Downs last October. He’s kept that status through two starts this spring, winning the 1 1/16-mile Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes in his seasonal bow and then closing late but settling for second behind Tappan Street in the 1 1/8-mile Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm at Xalapa. Regular jockey Junior Alvarado missed riding Sovereignty in the Florida Derby due to a minor injury but will be back aboard for the Kentucky Derby, and Alvarado should be able to settle his mount somewhere back in the second half of the field early on before asking him for his best. As with any closer, Sovereignty will need some racing luck to help maneuver through horses as he takes aim on the leaders in early stretch, but there’s really not much else to quibble about with this colt as he’s got a pedigree stacked with stamina and is trained by one of the most decorated members of the profession in Bill Mott. He has a solid chance to give Mott his first outright Kentucky Derby win, as Mott’s Country House was elevated to first in the 2019 Derby after the original first-place finisher, Maximum Security, was disqualified.
Bet Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby.
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19. Chunk of Gold (30-1)
Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
Trainer: Ethan West
Owner: Terry Stephens
Career record: 4 starts – 1 win – 3 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $348,818
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 96
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 75
Pedigree: Preservationist – Play for Gold, by Cairo Prince
Color: Gray or roan
Running style: Stalker/closer
Analysis: Along with Coal Battle, Chunk of Gold carries the “little guy” banner in this year’s Kentucky Derby. He was purchased for only $2,500 as a yearling for owner Terry Stephens and began his racing career with two starts on Turfway Park’s all-weather track, a first-out victory and then a runner-up effort in a one-mile stakes. Stephens and trainer Ethan West ambitiously sent the gray or roan colt to Louisiana to test him in a Kentucky Derby prep race on dirt, and Chunk of Gold outran his 43.30-1 odds to finish second in the 1 1/8-mile Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes, albeit 9 ¾ lengths behind runaway fellow longshot winner Magnitude. He followed that up with an even better runner-up finish in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, checking in 2 ¼ lengths behind Tiztastic. Chunk of Gold would have to make another sharp improvement in order to win the Kentucky Derby, and that’s a tall order. Having said that, he’s yet to run poorly and like several other closers (most of whom have higher speed figures) he figures to get a fast pace to chase. Despite his modest sales price, Chunk of Gold is bred for stamina and he should handle the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby distance.
Bet Chunk of Gold in the Kentucky Derby.
SV Photography
20. Owen Almighty (30-1)
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Brian Lynch
Owners: Flying Dutchmen Breeding and Racing
Career record: 7 starts – 3 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $499,935
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 98
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 65
Pedigree: Speightstown – Tempers Rising, by Bayern
Color: Bay
Running style: Pacesetter/press the pace
Analysis: Owen Almighty secured a spot in the 2025 Kentucky Derby starting gate with a visually impressive, 3 ½-length win in the 1 1/16-mile Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby when leading from start to finish. Following the race, trainer Brian Lynch expressed doubt that his charge would contest the 1 ¼-mile classic, saying that he felt the colt’s pedigree made him better-suited to races held around one mile. Owen Almighty’s connections decided to give him another start in a major Derby prep, the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes held at a mile and an eighth, and after pressing the early pace he tired in the homestretch and finished in a dead heat for sixth. That helped convince Lynch to declare that the colt would bypass the Kentucky Derby … but on April 16, word came through Churchill Downs’ press office that Owen Almighty’s owners decided that the one-time-only allure of the Derby was, as it turns out, too good to pass up. This colt certainly has talent and would fit in well in another race for 3-year-olds on Kentucky Derby day, the Pat Day Mile Stakes Presented by SAP, but not in the big race itself. The obstacle, obviously, is distance, and considering his recent showing it’s hard to see Owen Almighty doing much more than helping to set what could be a swift early pace in the Derby after breaking from the far outside post position.
Bet Owen Almighty in the Kentucky Derby.
BENOIT photo
Baeza (also-eligible)
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Owners: C R K Stable and Grandview Equine
Career record: 4 starts – 1 win – 2 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $148,500
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 107
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 37.5
Pedigree: McKinzie – Puca, by Big Brown
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: As of April 26, Baeza will need one horse to be withdrawn from the main field of 20 for the Kentucky Derby in order to secure a spot. A sizable number of racing fans and bettors are hoping, along with the colt’s connections, for that to happen because he is one of the most exciting 3-year-olds in training. The colt from the first crop of young stallion McKinzie that was purchased for $1.2 million as a yearling has been patiently handled by 2005 Kentucky Derby-winning trainer John Shirreffs and has come into his own in his two recent starts to flash Grade 1-level talent. Baeza romped by 4 ¾ lengths in a one-mile maiden race in California back in February and then was moved up to stakes company for his fourth career start in the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby in his first bid for Kentucky Derby points. He took the lead in the stretch and dueled courageously with Journalism in the final strides to come up three-quarters of a length short – but since only five horses started in the Santa Anita Derby, the race’s Derby points distribution was lowered and Baeza earned just 37.5 points toward a spot in the May 3 starting gate instead of 50. The sky’s the limit for this runner, who is a half-brother (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch. If Baeza makes the field he’ll get the services of reigning Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat, who earned a Derby win in 2019 via disqualification (Prat is also named to ride Neoequos but has first preference on Baeza). The “buzziest” of buzz horses for Derby 151 is playing the waiting game …
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