The Breeders’ Cup World Championships is the ultimate handicapping puzzle for horseplayers, and it’s especially appealing to those who adhere to the maxim of “bet a little to win a lot.”

The 14-race slate of Breeders’ Cup races brings together great horses from all regions in the U.S. as well as from overseas, which means that year after year, top-class runners with robust résumés go off at odds far higher than they would in any other setting.

Finding and playing longshots in the Breeders’ Cup can become even more lucrative if you are able to also select – and toss from your betting slips – several horses that are underlays; that is, ones that are receiving more support from bettors than they should and thus carrying lower odds (check out ABR’s primer on gambling terms for more info). Zigging while everyone else zags is the essence of astute betting in any environment, and in horse racing it can lead to astronomical payouts.

So, which morning-line favorites in the 2026 Breeders’ Cup are vulnerable to lose at short odds? Four candidates are listed below from the 43^rd renewal of the World Championships, and the fourth time the event is held in the heart of horse country at Keeneland Race Course.

Hughes (Eclipse Sportswire)

1. Hughes (1-1, FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance): There’s no doubt this Bob Baffert-trained colt has been very, very impressive in his four starts to date. He’s undefeated racing in Southern California, aced his first two-turn exam in the American Pharoah Stakes Presented by DK Horse, and honestly hasn’t been tested yet. I think that changes Friday afternoon. There are three colts entered in the Juvenile who ran very well during Keeneland’s fall meet – American History (9-2), Coach Pope (4-1), and longshot Damavand (20-1) – who I think can improve, speed-figure wise, from their prior races and have a chance at the upset. The key will be whether Hughes gets any early pace pressure in the Juvenile, and I think that could come from Gaudreau (8-1) and He Is No Lie (15-1), the latter of which is better than he showed in his one start in California. I won’t be that surprised if Hughes prevails in the Juvenile, but I won’t be betting on him to do so at even-money odds.

Bacio (Coady Media)

2. Bacio (5-2, Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint): This colt comes into the Turf Sprint having won five out of six starts and four in a row. Most impressively, his last two came in England where grass racing reigns supreme: a win during the prestigious Royal Ascot meet in June and then a Group 1 stakes score at York Racecourse in August. He is a front-runner and no doubt will be hustled out of the gate in the Turf Sprint, but Saturday’s field is loaded with speed, and I expect four or five entrants to go with Bacio from the outset, led by Joe Shiesty (10-1), Miss Yechance (15-1), Roja (30-1), and possibly last year’s Turf Sprint winner coming off a six-month layoff, Shisospicy (15-1). Bacio is drawn in between Shisospicy and Roja, exiting from the third post position. This race has the makings of a pace meltdown, and I’ll be betting for that to happen. Both European shipper Comanche Brave (3-1) and Yellow Card (8-1) with Flavien Prat in the saddle look very appealing in what I think is a wide-open Turf Sprint.

Further Ado (Eclipse Sportswire)

3. Further Ado (2-1, Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile): This colt was pre-entered in both the Dirt Mile and the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic, where he would have been a double-digit longshot had he run. Instead, he’s the morning-line favorite in what admittedly is not a world-class renewal of the Dirt Mile. His odds reflect a 2-for-2 record at Keeneland comprised of two blowout wins: a 20-length (!) maiden score a little over a year ago when he was 2 and then an 11-length romp in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes in April. Both races were held at 1 1/16 miles. Further Ado’s best career effort outside of Keeneland arguably came in his lead-in race to the Dirt Mile, when he rallied gamely to come up a half-length short to The Puma in the 1 1/8-mile Pennsylvania Derby. Ultimately, he’s just too inconsistent to back at low odds, and there’s a chance that he could get shuffled back in the short run to the first turn in this two-turn mile having drawn the rail post position. My top choices in this race are the three horses drawn to the outside: Forged Steel (15-1), Owen Almighty (10-1), or Iron Man Cal (12-1), the last of these getting the slight edge after two strong dirt efforts in California.

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4. Notable Speech (7-5, FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented by PDJF): In last year’s edition of this article, I took a stand against 5-2 Notable Speech in the Mile at Del Mar and I was wr-, er, wro-, er, not correct in my assessment. So, why am I fading him again as he bids to repeat? Because I think there are a pair of Europe-based runners that can post the upset. Granted, this year’s Mile appears to be a splendid setup for late-running Notable Speech, as there is ample speed entered, with Deterministic (8-1), Cabo Spirit (30-1), Zulu Kingdom (15-1), Qirat (30-1), and recent Keeneland standout Rhetorical (8-1) all preferring to race near the front. While Notable Speech should be cutting into a fast pace turning for home, I think Lake Forest (6-1) and Coolmore’s English classic-winning filly True Love (8-1) could be right there with him. Lake Forest had a less-than-ideal trip in the Coolmore Turf Mile last out but still ran on to finish second behind Rhetorical on this course, his first North American start. The gelding finished second to Notable Speech in a Group 1 stakes in England in his start prior to that.