Four of the last eight and six of the last 12 winners of the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance have been longshots who prevailed at double-digit odds. Likewise, eight of the 12 editions of the Juvenile held in Southern California over the last 25 years were won by 2-year-olds who paid $23 or more for a $2 win bet.

In other words, buckle up for this year’s race Oct. 31 at Del Mar. You might see some fireworks.

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Let’s review the last 25 editions of the race from 2000 through 2024 in search of some trends that can help point to the winner, first drilling down into the longshot winners over the last quarter of a century.

Quality racehorses are often overlooked in the Juvenile. Just look at last year’s winner Citizen Bull, an established Grade 1 winner entering the race for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, paid $33.80 to win. Hard to believe in hindsight.

Twenty-four of the last 25 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners entered off a top-three finish – the lone exception was Fierceness in 2023, who was unplaced in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, and 10 of those winners were double-digit longshots. The 10 longshots included three 2-year-olds coming in off a win: Citizen Bull along with Action This Day (26.80-1 odds in 2003) and New Year’s Day (10.50-1 odds in 2013), the latter two entering off maiden wins.

Wilko (2004), Street Sense (2006), Vale of York (2009), Texas Red (2014), Good Magic (2017), and Storm the Court (2019) all finished in the top three in their final prep race before posting a big upset on Breeders’ Cup day. Wilko came out of a Group 2 race in Europe, the other five all placed in Grade/Group 1 races in their final prep. All six had shown the ability to rate off the pace and proved they could compete at an elite level.

Double-Digit Upset Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Winners (2000-2024)

The chart above highlights that eight of the 10 double-digit upset winners of the Juvenile from 2000 to 2024 came when the World Championships were hosted at Santa Anita Park or Del Mar.

Other Key Trends to Know

• Ten 2-year-olds capped unbeaten seasons in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile between 2000 and 2024, including among them all five winning favorites over the last 25 editions: War Pass (2007), Uncle Mo (2010), Shanghai Bobby (2012), Game Winner (2018), and Corniche (2021). If you plan to bet the favorite, he’d better be unbeaten.
• Speaking of good form, 17 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners from 2000 to 2024 entered the race off a victory. Fierceness (as mentioned above) is the only winner of the race to exit an unplaced finish. Combined, the last 25 winners of the Juvenile had won 56 of 86 pre-Breeders’ Cup starts for a 65.1% win rate.
• Thirteen of the last 25 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners had a Grade 1 win on their résumé entering the race and only three were not either a stakes winner or graded stakes-placed, so established class is important.
• Don’t get too hung up on running style. Six pacesetters have won in the last 25 editions as have two dedicated closers, while the rest fell somewhere in between led by seven stalkers. There is no true ideal running style for this race, but …
• … looking specifically at the six most recent editions of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in Southern California – Santa Anita in 2016, 2019, and 2023 and Del Mar in 2017, 2021, and 2024 – tactical speed has been a valuable asset. All six winners were third or better and within 2 ½ lengths of the pace after the opening quarter-mile. Three of the six set the pace and two others were second and within a half-length of the leader after the first quarter. All six were in front in early stretch.
• Forty-percent of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners prepped for the race in Southern California from 2000 through 2024, with eight winners coming out of a start at Santa Anita Park. The Champagne Stakes in New York has produced five Juvenile winners and the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland has four in this timeframe.
• Kentucky-breds dominate with 24 wins in 25 editions. The lone exception came when Irish-bred Vale of York won on an all-weather surface in 2009.
• Hall of Fame trainers Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher have combined to win 12 Eclipse Awards – four and eight, respectively – and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is a race they have dominated in recent years. Baffert has amassed six wins in the race since 2002 and Pletcher has won four of the last 15 editions. Both know how to have a 2-year-old primed to peak on Breeders’ Cup day.

Evaluating the 2025 Contenders

Ted Noffey (Coady Media)

Pletcher and Baffert might be tough to beat this year in the Juvenile. Pletcher has multiple Grade 1 winner and probable favorite Ted Noffey, who is unbeaten in three races and enters off a 2 ¾-length win in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity Oct. 4 at Keeneland. The Into Mischief colt was even more dominant one start prior when taking the Spendthrift Farm Hopeful Stakes by 8 ½ lengths. If you are betting a favorite, you want an unbeaten 2-year-old with star potential. Ted Noffey fits the bill and his tactical speed should be valuable in a Del Mar-hosted Juvenile.

Baffert has three probable starters in undefeated Del Mar Futurity winner Brant, American Pharoah Stakes Presented by DK Horse runner-up Desert Gate, and Breeders’ Futurity third-place finisher Litmus Test. Brant led from start to finish in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity after coming from just off the pace in a dominant debut win. The Gun Runner colt will be trying two turns for the first time in the 1 1/16-mile Juvenile, but he’s very fast and looks like the best of Baffert’s bunch on paper. He could even vie for favoritism with Ted Noffey.

Baffert has saddled a pair of double-digit longshot winners in this race. You should get a good price on his other runners with Desert Gate having some appeal after a Grade 1 placing at Santa Anita. He is bred to relish longer distances and has shown the ability to rate off the pace in previous races while also possessing tactical speed. 

Comport is a stakes winner with tactical speed from the barn of Eddie Kenneally coming out of a runner-up finish in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs. Not This Time ran second in the 2016 BC Juvenile after winning the Iroquis, but the Louisville prep has not been a productive steppingstone historically.

Intrepido rallied from fourth to win the American Pharoah Stakes for trainer Jeff Mullins at 8.80-1 odds despite some early trouble. He comes out of a Grade 1 win in Southern California, has some tactical speed, and probably will be an overlay with Ted Noffey and Brant in the field. Likewise, Blackout Time should offer value coming out of a second to Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity. He is trained by Ken McPeek, who has authored high-profile upsets in the 2002 Belmont Stakes with Sarava (70.25-1) and 2024 Kentucky Derby with Mystik Dan (18.61-1). Mr. A. P., by 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, comes out of a fast maiden win for trainer Vladimir Cerin after running second in his two previous starts sprinting. The 106 Equibase Speed Figure earned when stretching out to a mile for the win is a promising sign for a 2-year-old whose late finishing kick could get an ideal setup in this race.