The $1.25 million, Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park drew a big field of 13 vying for glory on the Road to the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve and setting the stage for the Arkansas Derby on March 30. Leading the field is Timberlake, who won the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes last October before a fourth of nine effort in the Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile presented by TAA.
Among the other dozen, only Grade 3 Southwest Stakes runner-up Just Steel has proved competitive at the level and distance, having finished second in the Smarty Jones Stakes prior to that. Carbone was favored by bettors to win the Southwest but checked in seventh, while Common Defense ended up fifth and Magic Grant 10th in that race. Time for Truth stretches out to two turns for the first time and may be one of those vying for the early lead after leading from the start and settling for second in the Ozark Stakes two weeks ago at Oaklawn. Tejon Pass finished second in the one-turn Renaissance Stakes at Oaklawn on Dec. 31 then stretched out to two turns four weeks ago and finished fifth after pressing the pace. That race was won by Woodcourt, with Next Level a head behind in second, with both colts hoping to run as well on the raise in class to stakes company. Similarly, Northern Flame beat Mena by a neck in a two-turn allowance race at Oaklawn last month and these are two more hoping to run as well at this higher class level. Dimatic earned his first win at the distance three weeks ago, in his third career start, and is moving significantly up in class from the maiden ranks but appears talented. Lagynos won at the distance of the Rebel near the end of November but faded to sixth after leading early in the Smarty Jones.
Top win contenders:
Although he hasn’t run in nearly four months, Timberlake is the one to beat in this year’s Rebel Stakes if he runs as he did in any of his four races as a 2-year-old following his sixth-place debut last June. In his second start last July, Timberlake dominated by nine lengths with a very strong 96 Equibase Speed Figure for a 2-year-old in the summer. After finishing second in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga the first week of September, Timberlake once again dominated, winning the Champagne Stakes by four lengths the first week in October. The 106 figure earned was very strong and Timberlake entered the gate four weeks later as one of the favorites in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile but never mounted a rally and finished fourth of nine. Given most of the winter off to mature, it appears Timberlake will fire with a big shot, evidenced by two very strong workouts in the last two weeks and the fact trainer Brad Cox won the 2021 Southwest Stakes with Essential Quality off a similar layoff. Even though he was fourth in the Juvenile, the 98 figure Timberlake earned is the best last race figure in the field and since he’s grown up physically and mentally since last fall, we can expect far better in his first start as a 3-year-old, making him the one to beat.
Just Steel might have otherwise been considered slightly more probable to win than Timberlake by virtue of having run twice so far this year, but for the second race in a row the colt gets a potentially disadvantageous outside post for a two-turn race. Stretching out to two-turns for the Smarty Jones Stakes on Jan. 1, Just Steel drew the seven post in a field of nine. After racing in third for the first six furlongs, he made a move while three paths wide on the turn then made the lead with an eighth of a mile to run, only to be passed in the final sixteenth. Gamely holding second by a head at the finish, Just Steel earned a 93 figure, which he bettered to 97 last month in the Southwest Stakes, where again he broke from the outside 10 post in a field of 11. In the Southwest, Just Steel ran very similarly to the Smarty Jones, as he rallied from fourth to get within a half-length of the lead with an eight of a mile to run before being out finished by the winner. Although he finished second in both races, Just Steel demonstrated a good deal of the physical and mental fitness of a top 3-year-old, and if Timberlake is not ready to pick up where he left off last fall, Just Steel can win.
About some of the others: Dimatic won easily at this distance at Oaklawn three weeks ago, earning a career 88 figure he should improve upon in his fourth career start. That being said, trainer Steve Asmussen jumps the colt way up in class and he may not be good enough to contend for the win at this level of competition just yet. Similarly, Lagynos (also trained by Asmussen) won at the distance on November 25 and earned an 85 figure in doing so. He won that race from off the pace then in the Smarty Jones Stakes on January 1, Lagynos was sent to the lead and tired to sixth, earning an 89 figure. With a change in jockey to Steve’s son Keith J. Asmussen, who wins a lot of races for his father, and if ridden more like he was last fall, Lagynos may be good for a minor award.
Then we have three horses who appear to be need-the-lead types and who may go too fast early to hold off Timberlake and Just Steel in the late stages, but who also may stick around for a minor award. Time for Truth stretches out off two sprints, having led from the start in both and earning a 102 figure in his debut. His outside post and style demands he try to get to the lead before the first turn but the two horses occupying the inside positions in the gate, Carbone and Northern Flame, will both use their position and early speed to keep Time for Truth from having an easy lead. Carbone led from start to finish in his first two races, earning a 98 figure in his second start, then did not make the lead in the Southwest but pressed the pacesetter before tiring. Northern Flame earned both of his career wins leading from start to finish, the best with a 93 figure, and in his other races had no finishing kick so we can assume going to the front will be his strategy once more.
The rest of the field (with best representative Equibase Speed Figure): Common Defense (85), Magic Grant (82), Mena (91) Next Level (83), Tejon Pass (89) and Woodcourt (91).
Win Contenders:
Timberlake
Just Steel
Pick 3
7-5-7/13
7-5-7/13
$393
Pick 4
2/8-7-5-7/13
2/8-7-5-7/13
$833
Superfecta
7-3-2-12
7-3-2-12
$255
Trifecta
7-3-2
7-3-2
$108
Pick 3
7-5-7/13
7-5-7/13
$393
Pick 4
2/8-7-5-7/13
2/8-7-5-7/13
$833
Superfecta
7-3-2-12
7-3-2-12
$255
Trifecta
7-3-2
7-3-2
$108
.jpg?itok=Kdgz8xV1)
