Stars of Yesterday: Looking Back at the Best Rebel Stakes Winners
2026 Rebel Stakes Cheat Sheet
Racing
The post parade for the 2022 Rebel Stakes, which was won by Un Ojo. The 2026 edition of the Rebel Stakes will be Sunday at Oaklawn Park. (Eclipse Sportswire)
Oaklawn Park offers a lucrative pathway to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve that leads to deep, talented fields and compelling 3-year-old qualifying races for the May 2 run for the roses at Churchill Downs.
Strategic Risk won the $250,000 Smarty Jones Stakes Jan. 3 at Oaklawn, while Silent Tactic prevailed in the $1 million Southwest Stakes Feb. 6. Both return for the third of four Kentucky Derby preps at the Hot Springs, Ark. racetrack: the $1 million Rebel Stakes March 1.
The 1 1/16-mile Rebel Stakes drew a field of 10 3-year-olds competing for a total of 105 qualifying points on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale to the top five finishers, essentially guaranteeing a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby to the winner. Oaklawn’s pathway to the Kentucky Derby concludes March 28 with the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby, a Grade 1 race at 1 1/8 miles worth 100 points to the winner.
The Rebel Stakes will be televised on Fox Sports during Sunday’s “America’s Day at the Races” telecast.
Read on for more information on the 10 3-year-olds entered in the Rebel Stakes, a race won this century by classic winners such as Smarty Jones (2004), Curlin (2007), Lookin At Lucky (2010), and American Pharoah (2015).
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1. Bravaro (8-1 morning-line odds)
Jockey: Francisco Arrieta
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Owners: Albert Ciuffetelli, Stephanie Brennan, Shining Stables, BAG Racing Stables, and Paul Braverman
Career record: 3 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $203,500
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 89
Kentucky Derby points: 10
Pedigree: Upstart – Opera Star, by Tamarkuz
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: Bravaro began his career with back-to-back wins against New York-breds at Aqueduct, including a 2 ½-length win in the Sleepy Hollow Stakes Oct. 25, 2025. The bay Upstart colt returned from a three-month freshening on the Kentucky Derby trail in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes Jan. 31 at Gulfstream Park, where he ran a distant second to highly regarded 3-year-old Nearly. Bravaro held his own against tougher opposition in the Holy Bull and could offer value in the Rebel Stakes at his 8-1 morning-line price, but he will need to improve his Equibase Speed Figure by 10-15 points to have a realistic chance at a victory. He also might need to be hustled from the starting gate for positioning coming out of the inside post. Note: Bravaro is cross-entered in the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes Feb. 28 at Gulfstream. According to Daily Racing Form’s Mike Welsch, he will run in that Kentucky Derby prep.
BENOIT photo
2. Litmus Test (7-2)
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Career record: 5 starts – 2 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $350,188
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 105
Kentucky Derby points: 19
Pedigree: Nyquist – Study Hard, by Malibu Moon
Color: Bay
Running style: Press the pace/stalker
Analysis: Litmus Test ships in from Southern California for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has won the Rebel Stakes eight times since 2010, most recently in 2021 with Concert Tour. The Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity winner could very well wind up being the post-time favorite given his track record in big races. Prior to the Los Alamitos Futurity victory, Litmus Test ran third in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity last fall at Keeneland before finishing 1 ¾ lengths behind Ted Noffey when fourth in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA. The bay Nyquist colt returns from a two-month layoff for his season debut as the fastest horse in the race by Equibase Speed Figures and could be tough to beat, albeit at short odds.
Coglianese Photos/Lauren King
3. Class President (10-1)
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owners: WinStar Farm, First Go Racing, and CHC Inc.
Career record: 2 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $53,700
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 88
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Top Quality, by Quality Road
Color: Bay
Running style: Press the pace/stalker
Analysis: Class President stretches out around two turns for the first time in the $1 million Rebel Stakes after winning a one-turn mile by 3 ¼ lengths in his career debut Dec. 22 at Gulfstream Park and then running second in the seven-furlong Swale Stakes Jan. 31 at the Hallandale Beach, Fla. track. His sire, Uncle Mo, was a brilliant racehorse who could carry his speed around two turns and his dam (mother) was a stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles who placed in multiple stakes at 1 1/8 miles, so there is reason for optimism in terms of stamina. But with a career-best 88 Equibase Speed Figure, Class President also must run significantly faster to have a shot to reach the winner’s circle. He could spice up the exacta and/or trifecta payouts at 10-1 on the morning line for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, who won this race in 2017 with Malagacy and in 2018 with Magnum Moon.
Eclipse Sportswire
4. Blackout Time (8-5)
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Owners: Brookdale Racing Inc., Lance Gasaway, and Magdalena Racing
Career record: 3 starts – 1 win – 2 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $210,691
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 94
Kentucky Derby points: 5
Pedigree: Not This Time – Beauty Parlor, by Elusive Quality
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Press the pace/stalker
Analysis: Blackout Time has not raced since finishing second to Ted Noffey in the $650,000 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, a Grade 1 race that was flattered when Ted Noffey went on to win the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA and the Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male. Prior to that second-place finish, Blackout Time romped by 9 ¾ lengths in a one-mile maiden race at Ellis Park after a runner-up effort in his career debut. He makes his first start in 4 ½ months in the Rebel Stakes as the 8-5 morning-line favorite, which is a very short price for a racehorse coming off that long of a layoff with Equibase Speed Figures that peg him as a contender but not a standout. Blackout Time looks like a win candidate but an obvious underlay under the circumstances.
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An underlay is racing refers to horse whose odds are less than his potential to win. Betting horses whose odds are worse than fair value is a poor long-term strategy.
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5. Honey’s to Blame (20-1)
Jockey: Emmanuel Esquivel
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Owners: John Holleman and Magdalena Racing
Career record: 5 starts – 2 wins – 0 seconds – 2 thirds
Career earnings: $161,200
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 84
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Pedigree: Blame – Harlee Honey, by Harlan's Holiday
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker/closer
Analysis: After running third in a pair of turf races last summer, Honey’s to Blame earned his first win against fellow Arkansas-breds in a three-quarter-mile dirt sprint in December at Oaklawn Park. He dominated by 5 ¾ lengths and subsequently stepped up in competition to win an open allowance-optional claiming race going 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn Feb. 8. This is another major test in terms of class as Honey’s to Blame makes his stakes debut in a $1 million Kentucky Derby qualifier. Trainer Kenny McPeek has authored his share of upsets in big races – Sarava in the 2002 Belmont Stakes at 70.25-1 and Mystik Dan at 18.61-1 in the 2024 Kentucky Derby come to mind – and a win by Honey’s to Blame would qualify as another McPeek shocker. On paper, the Blame colt does not appear to be fast enough but he could pass a few horses late for a minor award.
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6. Strategic Risk (8-1)
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Mark Casse
Owner: John Oxley
Career record: 7 starts – 3 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $417,300
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 90
Kentucky Derby points: 10
Pedigree: Noble Bird – Strategize, by Afleet Alex
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker/closer
Analysis: Strategic Risk’s 10th-place finish in the $1 million Southwest Stakes was a true head scratcher. Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse was at a loss to explain the dud other than to speculate that missed training due to inclement weather negatively impacted him more than stablemate Silent Tactic, the Southwest victor. Prior to that race, Strategic Risk seemed to find his calling in two-turn dirt races with back-to-back stakes wins. He rolled by nine lengths in the FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality Stakes in November at Gulfstream Park and won the Smarty Jones Stakes by 4 ½ lengths at Oaklawn in his 3-year-old bow. Even with a bounce-back effort, the bay Nyquist colt very likely will need to boost his Equibase Speed Figure by 10-15 points to have a realistic shot to win the Rebel Stakes, but he could offer some value at 8-1 for exacta and trifecta tickets. Jockey Javier Castellano won this race in 2017 aboard Malagacy.
Eclipse Sportswire
7. Silent Tactic (9-2)
Jockey: Cristian Torres
Trainer: Mark Casse
Owner: John Oxley
Career record: 4 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $594,422
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 103
Kentucky Derby points: 25
Pedigree: Tacitus – Magical Sign, by Gun Runner
Color: Bay
Running style: Closer
Analysis: Silent Tactic closed powerfully with a final quarter-mile in :24.56 to win the Southwest Stakes by 3 ¼ lengths Feb. 6 at this track and 1 1/16-mile distance. That victory at 12-1 odds was a nice improvement from his runner-up finish to stablemate Strategic Risk in the Smarty Jones Stakes Jan. 3, boosting his Equibase Speed Figure by 20 points from an 83 in the Smarty Jones to a 103. This is a short turnaround (23 days) after a career-best performance, so there is a chance he could regress on short rest, and there is not a ton of speed in the race to set up his closing running style. I loved what I saw in the Southwest, however, and I’m willing to bet he’s got plenty of fuel in the tank in his third start off the layoff … especially at his generous 9-2 odds on the morning line. Silent Tactic has a great shot to give Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse his first win in this race and punch his ticket to the Kentucky Derby.
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8. Rancho Santa Fe (12-1)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer: Brad Cox
Owners: Gary and Mary West
Career record: 4 starts – 2 wins – 0 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $189,457
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 97
Kentucky Derby points: 5
Pedigree: Tapit – Family Tree, by Smart Strike
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Stalker/closer
Analysis: This colt won both starts as a 2-year-old before trainer Brad Cox shipped him to Oaklawn Park to begin his sophomore campaign. Rancho Santa Fe did not show much in his stakes debut in the Jan. 3 Smarty Jones Stakes but took a significant step forward in his second start at age 3. He was in the mix in deep stretch of the $1 million Southwest Stakes Feb. 6 and was nosed out for third while earning a new career-top 97 Equibase Speed Figure. Rancho Santa Fe was beaten by 3 ½ lengths by Rebel entrant Silent Tactic in the Southwest, so he’ll need to take another step forward here to be a win candidate. He is bred to run all day – by leading sire Tapit out of 2016 Indiana and Iowa Oaks winner Family Tree, by Smart Strike – and has some tactical speed, so the 12-1 morning-line odds look like solid value. Cox won the Rebel in 2024 with Timberlake.
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9. Time for Music (30-1)
Jockey: Keith Asmussen
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Owner: Mike McCarty
Career record: 6 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $100,016
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 85
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Pedigree: Not This Time – Bling On the Music, by Too Much Bling
Color: Gray or roan
Running style: Closer
Analysis: Expect Time for Music to vie for the longest odds in the Rebel field. He was beaten by 14 ¼ lengths when ninth of 11 in the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes Dec. 20 in his lone try against stakes competition and most recently lost by 21 lengths at this track and 1 1/16-mile distance in his Feb. 8 season debut. His lone win came in a maiden special weight race sprinting in October at Keeneland. Trainer Steve Asmussen has won this race four times with Snuck In (2000), Windward Passage (2002), Curlin (2007), and Long Range Toddy (2019), but this colt would need a sharp reversal in form and a 15-to-20 point Equibase Speed Figure improvement to be a win candidate.
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10. Soldier N Diplomat (10-1)
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Owner: St. Elias Stable
Career record: 5 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 1 third
Career earnings: $350,634
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 97
Kentucky Derby points: 13
Pedigree: Army Mule – Diplomatic Miss, by Violence
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Press the pace
Analysis: Soldier N Diplomat showed significant improvement when stretching out in distance to a mile in October 2025 at Churchill Downs in a nine-length allowance win that earned a 94 Equibase Speed Figure. He then led in the stretch of the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes Nov. 29 at Churchill Downs but ran out of steam late and faded to finish third, 2 ¼ lengths behind Further Ado. Soldier N Diplomat again led in the stretch in his 3-year-old debut Feb. 6 in the $1 million Southwest Stakes but could not match strides with winner Silent Tactic in the final sixteenth of a mile of a runner-up finish, 3 ¼ lengths behind the winner. The Army Mule colt earned a new career-best 97 Equibase Speed Figure in the Southwest and appears to be improving, but he’s been caught in deep stretch twice at 1 1/16 miles. He offers good value at 10-1 on the morning line but he’ll need to find something extra late in the Rebel for trainer Steve Asmussen, who has won this race four times, most recently in 2019 with Long Range Toddy.
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