Noel’s Weekend Winners: Doubling Down on Alabama Stakes Card at Saratoga

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Saratoga Race Course, Eclipse Sportswire
Fans watch the racing action on the turf course at Saratoga Race Course earlier in the meet. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.

Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

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Six Beginner Betting Tools

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Saturday, Aug. 19

weekend TV schedule

Friday, Aug. 18: 1-1:45 p.m. and 4:30-6:30 p.m. on FS2; 2-4:30 p.m. on FS1; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Saturday, Aug. 19: 1-3 p.m. and and 6-7 p.m. on FS2; 3-6 p.m. on FOX; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Sunday, Aug. 20: 1-6:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

We’re past the midway mark of August and have arrived at what can truly be called the nitty-gritty portion of the Saratoga Race Course season. Saturday is Alabama Stakes day. While the Travers Stakes for 3-year-old males usually hogs all the Saratoga headlines at this time of the year, this weekend will give the 3-year-old fillies their turn to step into the spotlight. The Alabama will perhaps be the year’s definitive race in the sophomore filly division, and the day’s other stakes feature, the Grade 2 Lake Placid Stakes, adds further to what will be a sensational 11-race card at the Spa. Best of luck and enjoy another fine day of racing and wagering at Saratoga.

Saratoga Race Course, Race 7, $200,000 Lake Placid Stakes, 4:26 p.m. ET

The Lake Placid Stakes has drawn a field of eight 3-year-old fillies set to go 1 1/16 miles on the grass, and half of the field, four of eight, are trained by Chad Brown. The Brown fillies have an excellent chance to sweep the entire trifecta in this race. The morning-line favorite in the field is #7 Surge Capacity based on her win last time out in the Grade 3 Lake George Stakes right here at Saratoga on a yielding turf course on July 21. That win raised Surge Capacity’s record to 2-for-2 to begin her career. There wasn’t a lot of speed in the race last time, and that allowed Surge Capacity to coast along close to the pace and she had plenty left in the tank to grind clear of the field in the late stages for the win. While Surge Capacity is an obvious contender, the real Brown horse to beat might be the second-place finisher out of the Lake George, #4 Tax Implications. She ran well in early 2-year-old turf routes last year and returned from a long layoff with a pair of second-place finishes behind other Chad Brown horses both times. She’s ready to roll now in the third race off the layoff, and she’ll be racing in the back-half of the field today with a much better pace setup than she received last time. While #1 Heavenly Sunday, #3 Gloria’s Princess, and another Brown entrant #8 Prerequisite all ensure plenty of pace in this race, Brown’s other closer in the field, #2 Aspray, looms as the other possible danger from off the pace. Aspray won Pimlico’s Hilltop Stakes to make her record 3-for-3 to start her career before losing last time in the Grade 1 Fasig-Tipton Belmont Oaks Invitational but seems to fit much better in today’s spot with a stronger projected pace to chase at a better distance.

The Play: Bet to win on #4 Tax Implications (5-1), and box her in the exactas and trifectas along with #2 Aspray (7-2) and #7 Surge Capacity (3-1).

Saratoga Race Course, Race 9, $600,000 Alabama Stakes Presented by Keeneland Sales, 5:45 p.m. ET

The Alabama Stakes has drawn a 10-horse field of 3-year-old filles set to go the demanding distance of 1 ¼ miles on Saratoga’s main track. The horse to beat is the favorite with #2 Wet Paint looking to add to her victories already this year in the Grade 3 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park and the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks earlier in this meet right here at Saratoga. Wet Paint has already beaten several of the horses in this field in previous head-to-head meetings. Even though she won the CCA Oaks by only a neck, it was nonetheless an impressive win when she had to rally from behind in a race that had absolutely no pace to help set up her late run. She should have no problem with today’s extended distance. The other leader of the 3-year-old filly division, Pretty Mischievous, opted to shorten up in the Test Stakes instead of stretching out, and that leaves Wet Paint alone as the standout in this field. Looking for horses for the exactas and trifectas, the search seems to begin with #1 Sacred Wish, who was the runner-up to Wet Paint last time in the CCA Oaks, where she lost by only a neck. The pace scenario figures to be tougher for Sacred Wish in this race, which dampens her hopes of an upset, but she did finish more than eight lengths ahead of the third-place horse last time, and trainer George Weaver has had an exceptional Saratoga meet so far with seven winners and 11 of his 25 starters finishing in the exacta. The other interesting contender in the field is #8 Randomized, who has won two of her four starts to date and has looked strong both times when able to get the lead. She looks like the speed in this race, and she could get brave on the front end for trainer Chad Brown if not challenged for the lead.

The Play:  Bet #2 Wet Paint (2-1) to win and box her in exactas and trifectas along with #1 Sacred Wish (8-1) and #8 Randomized (9-2).

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