The Kentucky Derby is a handicapping challenge unlike any other. It’s the only race in North America where bettors must choose between 20 lightly-raced 3-year-olds traveling a testing 1 1/4-mile distance. It’s a recipe for surprising outcomes, as was the case in 2019, when 65.20-1 longshot Country House was elevated to victory via disqualification.

But the 2020 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve is going to look a bit different. The COVID-19 pandemic forced the postponement of the historic event from May 2 until Sept. 5, dramatically changing the complexion of the race. The horses are entering with more experience. A few have already run well at the 1 1/4-mile distance. It seems clearer than ever which horses are progressing in the right direction and which appear to have plateaued.

The postponement of the Derby also means some traditional handicapping rules must be scrutinized for continued relevance. In a normal year, it’s uncommon for horses to enter the Derby off a layoff longer than six weeks, but plenty will attempt the feat in 2020. Most Derby winners utilize a prep schedule comprised of two or three races, but the extended season in 2020 has understandably thrown this approach to the wind.

If there’s one rule that should still apply, it’s the rule that states Kentucky Derby contenders must show the ability to finish fast traveling 1 1/8 miles if they’re going to have any chance at handling 1 1/4 miles in the run for the roses. Since most major Kentucky Derby prep races are held over 1 1/8 miles, the cutoff handicappers traditionally favor has been straightforward—they want to see Derby contenders sprint the final three-eighths of a mile in less than :38 seconds.

Year after year, this rule has proved effective for identifying horses with a chance to prevail at Churchill Downs. Keep in mind, each of the last eight Kentucky Derby winners — and 18 of the last 22 — ran the last three-eighths of their final Derby prep race in less than 38 seconds, indicating that analyzing these fractional times can be a very useful tool for handicapping the Kentucky Derby.

Normally handicappers only pay close attention to how fast each Derby contender finished in their final prep race, but due to the extended nature of the 2019-20 Road to the Kentucky Derby — with 1 1/8-mile prep races spread all over the calendar — we’ll adapt with the times and review closing fractions from all of the 1 1/8-mile prep races contested this year.

Below is a chart ranking the top 2020 Kentucky Derby contenders in order of how fast they finished in pertinent races. Before diving into the data, here are a few things to keep in mind:

1. Whenever possible, I have used data from Trakus to determine final times and last three-eighths fractions. Unlike traditional timers, which only record the splits posted by the leader at each point in a race, Trakus provides individual times for every horse in the field.
2. For tracks where Trakus is not installed, I have calculated the final times and last three-eighths fractions using the estimation that six lengths is equal to one second. Thus, a horse finishing six lengths behind the winner of a race is deemed to have run one second slow.
3. Since some tracks have a traditional timer in addition to Trakus, the times provided by Trakus can vary slightly from the times officially published in result charts. In each case, I have used the data from Trakus.
4. Races held over distances other than 1 1/8 miles have not been included in this chart.

Reviewing the data for 2020 only strengthens the case for Tiz the Law as the heaviest Kentucky Derby favorite in recent memory. Tiz the Law finished in an exceptional :36.39 when cruising to victory in the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets, topping the chart by a hefty 0.23 seconds.

Of course, the Belmont Stakes was held around a single turn at Belmont Park (as opposed to the two-turn configuration of most 1 1/8-mile races), making it easier for horses to record strong finishing fractions. Case in point, Belmont Stakes runner-up Dr Post (:36.62) and third-place finisher Max Player (:36.74) rank right behind Tiz the Law on the chart.

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But Tiz the Law’s fast finish in the Belmont Stakes was hardly a fluke. In the Aug. 8 Runhappy Travers Stakes at Saratoga (a race not included in the chart since it took place over 1 1/4 miles), Tiz the Law finished in approximately :36.76 to crush his rivals by 5 1/2 lengths. With his sensational finishing speed and proven ability to handle 1 1/4 miles, Tiz the Law looms as a formidable favorite for the 2020 Kentucky Derby.

The up-and-coming Art Collector has also displayed a strong finishing kick. A versatile colt capable of winning with almost any running style, Art Collector finished in :37.41 to win the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and improved slightly to :37.32 when dominating the Runhappy Ellis Park Derby. This consistently strong turn of foot has stamped Art Collector as a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender, though he’ll need another step forward to handle Tiz the Law if the latter brings his “A” game to Kentucky. (UPDATE: Art Collector was withdrawn from Kentucky Derby consideration on Sept. 1 with a minor foot injury.)

One relatively unheralded runner worth noting is Caracaro. A wide trip and a bumping incident down the homestretch of Saratoga’s Peter Pan Stakes prevented Caracaro from reaching the winner’s circle, but the lightly raced colt nevertheless finished in :37.20 to miss by just a neck. He subsequently ran up against Tiz the Law in the Travers, and while he was no match for the Derby favorite, Caracaro finished fast again (coming home in approximately :37.34) to cross the finish line second by a clear margin.

Enforceable will be an even longer shot in the betting, but he’s likewise finished in under :38 seconds on two occasions this year, marking the Mark Casse-trained youngster as a candidate to outrun expectations.

A few prominent Derby contenders rank lower on the finishing speed spectrum. Three-time graded stakes winner Authentic has an abundance of early speed, but he’s had trouble finishing fast down the lane, clocking :38.39 when finishing second in the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby and 38.95 when prevailing by a nose in the TVG.com Haskell Stakes. The same goes for Haskell runner-up Ny Traffic, who finished in :38.78 and :38.87 in his two 1 1/8-mile races this year. 

Ultimately, my main takeaways from the chart are as follows:

1. Tiz the Law is a beast, combining tactical speed with a terrific finishing kick. He’s developed into an elite racehorse with a chance to dominate the Kentucky Derby.
2. Art Collector is an obvious threat to hit the board, while Caracaro and Enforceable are less-heralded candidates to secure a piece of the Derby purse.
3. Authentic is a very talented colt, but the 1 1/4-mile distance of the run for the roses might push the limits of his stamina.

Good luck with your Derby handicapping!