Dan's Double: Back-to-Back Belmont Stakes

Gambling
Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing

Dan’s Double of the Week, featuring handicapping analysis from America's Best Racing's New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC). Horseplayers.com offers low-cost feeders every day and BCBC and NHC qualifiers every weekend, and it’s the only site where you can qualify for the $1 million BCBC. It’s free to sign up – click here to get information about registering and how to enter contests.

When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – is one of the brightest young minds in the game.

Each Week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup. Dan was able to manage a positive ROI for his plays in 2016. Come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.

Saturday, Sept. 30

Belmont Park, Race 7, Grade 1 $350,000 Vosburgh Stakes, 4:04 p.m. ET

#5 Mr. Crow: It took this horse a little while to get to the races but he’s been nearly perfect since debuting at Belmont in June. Coming off of two dominant wins at Saratoga, trainer Todd Pletcher shows extreme confidence in the horse, moving him up into Grade 1 company here in just his fourth career start (coming out of a first-level allowance, no less). Beyond that, Mr. Crow has shown the ability to rate – meaning he doesn’t need the lead. That running style should benefit him in a spot where at least three of the top contenders are sure to be sent from the gate, including #2 El Deal, #3 Green Gratto and #4 Takaful.

$10 Budget

$5 win and place on #5 Mr. Crow ($10)

$25 Budget

$5 win, place and show on #5 Mr. Crow ($15)

$1 exacta 5,6 over 1,2,4,5,6,7 ($10)

$50 Budget

$10 win, place and show on #5 Mr. Crow ($30)

$1 exacta 5,6 over 1,4,5,6,7 ($8)

$1 trifecta key 5 over 1,4,6,7 ($12)

Belmont Park, Race 8, Grade 3 $200,000 Pilgrim Stakes, 4:37 p.m. ET

#6 Maraud: We’ll go with the Pletcher double here, as Maraud is one with a ton of upside, win-early and turf pedigree. On debut, last month, he beat Desert Stone, another one that’s coming back in this spot. Maraud is a half-brother to Arklow who was on the Triple Crown trail earlier this year before finding success on the turf, going long –  he even held off Good Samaritan to win the Grade 2 American Turf Stakes at Churchill Downs.

Progeny of Blame (Maraud’s sire) have hit the board over 50% on the turf as 2-year-olds, and have also won eight races from 61 starts. Factoring in the productivity of Arklow, the dam Unbridled Empire has produced four wins and six in-the-money finishes from 14 starters in turf routes. On pedigree, and on account of connections, you’ll want to use a few others in your exotics, including #1 Desert Stone and #5 Voting Control.

$10 Budget

$2 win and place on #6 Maraud ($4)

$1 exacta box 1,5,6 ($6)

$25 Budget

$4 win, place and show on #6 Maraud ($12)

$2 exacta box 1,5,6 ($12)

$50 Budget

$8 win, place and show on #6 Maraud ($24)

$2 exacta box 1,5,6 ($12)

$1 trifecta 5,6 with 5,6 with ALL ($12)

2017 ROI: +$146.60

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