The $600,000, Grade 1 Belmont Oaks Stakes for 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/8 miles on the turf drew a competitive field of 10 on the Saturday July 4 card at Saratoga, which will be the final time the race will be run at “the Spa” before it returns to Belmont Park in 2027. Eight of the 10 fillies are stakes winners, including six graded/group stakes winners. Two fillies shipped in from overseas including morning line favorite Abashiri, while four are coming in from Churchill Downs. Trainer Chad Brown has won this race six times since 2012 and has two fillies entered Saturday. This year’s edition of the Belmont Oaks shapes up as a competitive and deep field with solid wagering opportunities.
Here’s a look at the field from the inside (rail) post position out:
Just Aloof, a Justify filly that is Chad Brown’s first entrant, won the Jimmy Durante Stakes at a Del Mar as a 2-year-old; however, she has yet to find the winner’s circle this year finishing fourth in the Appalachian Stakes Presented by Japan Racing Association at Keeneland and then the Edgewood Stakes Presented by Accenture at Churchill Downs, losing by a combined margin of just three-quarters of a length. Jockey Manny Franco will be reunited with Just Aloof for the first time since their maiden win together last October. Time to Dream is a Not This Time filly for trainer Todd Pletcher and Edgard Zayas will get the mount as regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. serves a suspension. Time to Dream will be making her sixth consecutive graded stakes appearance and has two wins from three starts over Saratoga’s turf including the P. G. Johnson Stakes last August. Kensington Lane ships in from Ireland for trainer Donnacha O’Brien with Joel Rosario named to ride. The Starspangledbanner filly finished fifth in the Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas last time out at the Curragh. Faithful Departed recently won the Regret Stakes at Churchill at the distance of this race, earning a career-best 108 Equibase Speed Figure that is also best in this field. The Yoshida filly trained by Grant Forster will have Jose Ortiz back in the saddle as they attempt to secure their third consecutive win together. Storm’s Wake won the Appalachian Stakes in April before finishing behind fellow Belmont Oaks contenders Imaginationthelady in the Edgewood Stakes and Faithful Departed in the Regret Stakes. Trained by Brian Lynch, the Oscar Performance filly will have Dylan Davis aboard for the first time.
Fitz Right, Chad Brown’s second entrant, is undefeated as a 3-year-old including back-to-back stakes wins in the Memories Of Silver Stakes at Aqueduct and the Wonder Again Stakes Presented by Shift4 at Saratoga last time out. Flavien Prat, who was aboard for her two stakes wins, retains the mount. Carmensita has the highest morning-line odds in the Belmont Oaks at 30-1. The Argentine-bred filly spent most of her career in her native country prior to shipping to Saratoga this summer. Trained by Horacio de Paz, she finished third in her North American debut and will have Ricardo Santana Jr. back aboard. Abashiri is the 5-2 morning-line favorite and ships in from the Curragh in Ireland, having finished third in the Irish 1,000 Guineas for the Godolphin team of Charlie Appleby and William Buick. The Frankel filly will be making her third consecutive Group/Grade 1 appearance for Appleby and Buick, who have a winning percentage of 40% in all races together at Saratoga over the past five years. Ultimate Love, a homebred Live Oak Plantation filly by Curlin, finished fifth in the John Deere Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at the end of her 2-year-old campaign and resurfaced in May to finish runner-up by just a head in the Hilltop Stakes at Laurel Park. John Velazquez retains the mount for trainer Michael Trombetta. Imaginationthelady rounds out the field for trainer Brendan Walsh with Tyler Gaffalione back aboard. Following a fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, Imaginationthelady returned in April to finish second by just a neck in the Appalachian Stakes before winning the Edgewood Stakes at Churchill last time out.
Analysis and Main Contenders:
Faithful Departed is a filly who has recently come into her own, improving with every start as a 3-year-old. The daughter of Yoshida started her career on a muddy Churchill Downs track last November, finishing a distant seventh, but then shipped to Fair Grounds for a try on the turf improved substantially, finishing fourth by just 1 ¾ lengths at a mile distance. She then scored her first victory stretching out to 1 1/16 miles on Fair Grounds’ turf in January and then in March, carrying odds of 35.60-1, she ran second by just a half-length in the 1 1/16-mile LaCombe Memorial Stakes at Fair Grounds and earned an 89 Equibase figure. Faithful Departed then shipped to Keeneland in April, finishing sixth in the Appalachian Stakes by just 2 ¾ lengths with a late rally when turning back in distance back to a mile, and she improved her Equibase figure to a 94. Just three weeks later, she faced older fillies and mares at the allowance level at Churchill, and returning to a distance of 1 1/16-miles, he summoned an impressive late rally to win, again improving to a 98 figure. Faithful Departed ran the best race of her career last time out in the Regret Stakes, splitting horses down the stretch and drawing clear with a nice late kick to win by 2 ¼ lengths in her first start at 1 1/8 miles. Tam Tam, who finished third in the Regret, came back to win the Tepin Stakes at Churchill last weekend by 5 ¾ lengths in her next start.
In the Regret, Faithful Departed earned an Equibase Speed Figure as noted above. Along with that highest last-out figure, Faithful Departed is also ranks first in this race by late pace with a 112.5 rating. Historically, horses over the past six months in turf route graded stakes with both of those attributes win at 29% from 63 starts and finish 61% in the money with a 35% return on investment. Another notable positive for this filly that Jose Ortiz stays aboard. Ortiz rode the filly in her prior two wins at Churchill – his first two mounts on her. Ortiz and trainer Grant Forster win at a tremendous 47% in all races together over the past five years, earning seven wins from 15 starts. Faithful Departed came out of the Regret in good form, posting a bullet four-furlong work in :47.40 on June 20 as well. This filly could get the first jump on her foes in the stretch – and that, along with her ability to win at this distance, makes her is formidable contender at appealing 5-1 morning-line odds with a big chance at finding the winner’s circle on Saturday.
Imaginationthelady is an extremely talented filly, showing nothing but class and ability in all five of her career starts. From the get-go, she has been able to find the winner’s circle, winning on career debut at Kentucky Downs before going on to win the Jessamine Stakes Presented by Keeneland Sales when stretching out to 1 1/16 miles as a 2-year-old. In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, Imaginationthelady ran well despite a tough start, finishing fourth by just 2 ½ lengths. She resurfaced as a 3-year-old a little over five months later and finished runner-up by just a neck in the one-mile Appalachian at Keeneland to Storm’s Wake off the layoff. In her most recent start, she stretched back out to 1 1/16 miles and split horses to get up in time to win the Edgewood Stakes at Churchill, indicating that longer distances suit her better. Imaginationthelady is tied for second in this field by late pace rating with a 109.5 and second in average speed with a 95 Equibase figure and will be rallying late with an extra half-furlong to work with. A notable positive is jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who was in the irons in both the Appalachian and Edgewood and seemingly gets the best efforts out of her. Imaginationthelady has been training forwardly since the Edgewood and could definitely find the winner’s circle, or at least running in the money with a solid value of 4-1 morning-line odds.
After a rocky start as a 2-year-old, Fitz Right has been unstoppable in 2026, posting three wins from three starts. Last year, Fitz Right won her second career start at the Meadowlands before taking a big jump in class to the Chelsey Flower Stakes at Aqueduct in early November, where she finished sixth by 6 ¾ lengths. Then in January, Fitz Right returned at Tampa Bay Downs and was ridden out to a 5 ½ length victory in an allowance optional claiming race, improving to an 80 Equibase figure after the layoff. She then took a three-month break and returned to New York to win the Memories Of Silver Stakes by 3 ½ lengths with Flavien Prat aboard for the first time, notching an 86 Equibase figure. Fitz Right yet again improved last time out in her graded stakes debut in the Wonder Again Stakes at Saratoga, winning by a length under Prat and earning a career-best 93 figure. Notably, she beat four stakes winners in the Wonder Again, including fellow Belmont Oaks contender Time to Dream. With a projected slow pace in the Belmont Oaks, Fitz Right should sit right off the lead if not set the pace herself, which could be a key factor in this race filled with closers. Over the last three years, Brown and Prat win at a tremendous 34% and finish in the top three 76% of the time in turf route graded stakes races at Saratoga, with a 72% return on investment. While Fitz Right is not the fastest of this group on paper, she has consecutive increasing speed figures in every start and should continue that progression in this race. Given her ability to win on the Saratoga turf and steady progression, Fitz Right is a formidable contender to complete the Belmont Oaks trifecta with a 6-1 morning-line value.
The rest of the field with their best Equibase Speed Figures in similar races, is Just Aloof (103), Time to Dream (100), Kensington Lane (n/a), Storm’s Wake (105), Carmensita (90), Abashiri (n/a), and Ultimate Love (102).
Win Contenders in Preference Order:
Faithful Departed
Imaginationthelady
Fitz Right
