Can Collected Spring Mild Upset in Breeders’ Cup Classic?

November 1st, 2017 by Ellis Starr

Collected upset Arrogate in the TVG Pacific Classic Stakes in August. Can he duplicate the feat in the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Nov. 4 at Del Mar? (Eclipse Sportswire)

The Grade 1, $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic drew a field of 11, including Arrogate, winner of the Grade 1, $12 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes earlier this year. However, questions about his current form surround Arrogate after finishing second to Collected in the Grade 1 TVG Pacific Classic Stakes, in which Collected won for the fourth time in a row. Gun Runner, whose only defeat this year came at the hands of Arrogate in the Dubai World Cup in March, has put together three straight Grade 1 wins, including the Woodward Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets. Three-year-olds Gunnevera, West Coast, and Pavel all will be trying to win versus their elders, just as Arrogate did last year, American Pharoah did in 2015, and Bayern did in 2014. West Coast enters the Classic off a win in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby. Gunnevera finished second to West Coast in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets in August at the distance of the Classic. Pavel finished third in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup in his most recent race, also at 1 ¼ miles. Two European 3-year-olds try dirt for the first time in the Classic. Churchill is the slightly more accomplished of the pair, having won the Group 1 Two Thousand Guineas earlier this year. The other European import is War Decree, who won the Group 2 Koffy Diamond Stakes in late September at the distance of the Classic but on an all-weather surface. Mubtaahij earned his spot in the starting gate with a win in the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes in September. War Story and Win the Space round out the field, with War Story having won the Grade 2 Brooklyn Invitational Stakes in June and Win the Space coming into the Classic off a third-place finish behind Mubtaahij in the Awesome Again.

Collected (Eclipse Sportswire)

Collected returned from more than 10 months off this past April and, although he had a splendid 3-year-old campaign, winning three of five races, including three stakes for $382,000 in earnings, as a 4-year-old he has been something else entirely. For the comeback race in April, Collected took blinkers off that had been on for all seven of his previous starts. Without blinkers, he has now reeled off four straight wins, all in stakes races, including the Grade 1 Pacific Classic on the Del Mar main track at the distance of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. In doing so, Collected beat the prohibitive favorite in Arrogate on the square. Although he led from start to finish in the Pacific Classic, Collected proved previously in two of his wins this year he does not need the lead to win. Jockey Martin Garcia has the luxury of seeing what horses who like to race forwardly such as Arrogate (who gets the rail), Gun Runner, and West Coast will do as he maneuvers Collected closer to the rail on the long run to the first turn. Prior to the Pacific Classic, Collected earned a career-best 125 Equibase Speed Figure which put him in the same league as Arrogate, who had earned a 124 figure winning the Pegasus World Cup in January, and as Gun Runner, who earned a 126 figure winning the Whitney Stakes two weeks earlier. Proving the 125 figure effort was no fluke, Collected earned a 126 winning the Pacific Classic. Lightly raced enough to have another “A” effort left in the tank, Collected has a big shot to win this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Gun Runner will very likely go into the starting gate as the betting favorite in the Classic, and for good reason as he has won three Grade 1 stakes in a row. Gun Runner has won four of five races in 2017, his only loss coming at the hands of Arrogate in the Dubai World Cup in March. Since then, Gun Runner has been nothing short of sensational, with victories by seven, 5 1/4 and most recently, by 10 1/4 lengths. Earning improving Equibase figures of 121, 126 and 131 for his most recent win, the only fault I can find with Gun Runner is that he has run three times previously at the 1 ¼-mile distance of the classic and not won. Gun Runner finished third in the 2016 Kentucky Derby, third in last year’s Travers Stakes, and then second in the Dubai World Cup, beaten by Arrogate in the latter two races at the distance. However, Gun Runner is much bigger and stronger now, while there are questions as to whether Arrogate is as good as he was in the winter and spring. Gun Runner showed a dimension winning the Woodward Stakes in September that he had not shown in some time as he relaxed in second in the early stages then drew off easily to a runaway victory. As such, jockey Florent Geroux can wait a few moments to see if another horse may want the lead, in which case he can put Gun Runner in second as he did in the Woodward. If no other horse wants the lead, Geroux can send Gun Runner to the front, where he may prove uncatchable.

West Coast is a 3-year-old who missed the Kentucky Derby preps because he wasn’t fully mature, having been born in May 2014. However, as he has matured he’s turned into a very good horse, winning five straight races, including three graded stakes. Winning the Travers and Pennsylvania Derby back-to-back in August and September, West Coast earned 115 speed figures each time. Although those numbers are not in the same airspace as the 124-130 figures earned by Arrogate, Collected, and Gun Runner, being a 3-year-old may offer West Coast the room to improve markedly at this time of year and join the ranks of many other top 3-year-olds that won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in history such as Bayern, American Pharoah, and Curlin, just to name a few.

Classic Countdown: October 31 from America's Best Racing on Vimeo.

Then we come to Arrogate, hailed as the best horse in training earlier this year after victories in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational and Dubai World Cup. Perhaps the trip halfway across the world to Dubai took its toll or perhaps there were other reasons, but everyone agrees it was a shock when Arrogate finished fourth of five as the prohibitive favorite in the TVG San Diego Handicap in July. Showing a bit of his previous form in the Pacific Classic, Arrogate raced in third in the early stages but could not pass Collected in the stretch and wound up a half-length back at the finish. Starting with last year’s Travers, Arrogate earned 120-124 figures then a 132 figure in the Dubai World Cup. Getting back to a 126 figure effort when gamely trying to collar Collected in the Pacific Classic, Arrogate may be on the improve and should be considered a contender in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, but personally I think others are going to run their best races of 2017 and he might have already done so.

Pavel and Mubtaahij may not possess as high of a probability to win as the four previously mentioned contenders, but they should be considered for exotic bets we make in this race, such as the exacta and trifecta. Like West Coast, Pavel is a 3-year-old, and he has only raced four times to date. Pavel ran his best race yet when facing older horses last month in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and, although no threat to wire-to-wire winner Diversify, Pavel battled head and head down the stretch with veteran Keen Ice for second. He probably got a lot out of that experience while improving to a career-best 116 figure and can take another step forward. Mubtaahij returned from six months off to win the Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita in his most recent race. The 108 figure he earned wasn’t nearly as good as the main contenders in this race, but he can improve upon it in his second start off the layoff. Previously earning a 131 figure when second in the 2016 Dubai World Cup and a 120 figure when beaten inches in last year’s Woodward Stakes, Mubtaahij may be closing strongly in the late stages and could have a say in the outcome.

The rest of the Classic field (with their best representative figures): Churchill (122 on turf), Gunnevera (110), War Decree (117 on turf), War Story (108), and Win the Space (113).

Win Contenders:

Collected

Gun Runner

West Coast

You can get Ellis' detailed analysis for all the Friday and Saturday races at Del Mar, including all Breeders' Cup races at Equibase and most ADWs